PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM full run

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gonna be due for a worm up……

Did some one say tequila shots?

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM also features very strong east winds on Thursday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM has never been on board. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8. Maybe some promise on the ensembles? We'll know soon....

[Gradient Keeper]

Almost looks fake it's so much better. Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Oops. I meant to edit this, not delete it.

00z GEFS Day 8.5 (Past 4 runs) Nice improvement tonight.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Almost looks fake it's so much better. Lol

GEFS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Almost looks fake it's so much better. Lol

Interesting because the ensemble mean at 04z on 2/1 was -4.8C on the 18z and its -4.4C on the 00z. 

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS is pretty good at hr200. Best run in two days.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS?

Ridge is far better tonight, but will it hold to allow the arctic air to dig southward.... Probably not.

[Gradient Keeper]

The cold is trying to dig south better

[Gradient Keeper]

I am rather encouraged by the GEFS. Better than I expected.

[MossMan]

Andrew is sad that it’s Sunday night and his favorite QB started his winter vacation early.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10. Just a wee bit colder

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Andrew is sad that it’s Sunday night and his favorite QB started his winter vacation early.  

The whole weekend was a disaster. Not one team I was rooting for won. Though I didn’t care about the Bengals vs Titans game. Only game I missed on though was the Niners over the packers. 

[snow_wizard]

Notable ensemble improvement tonight.  I find it interesting the GFS operational is actually a warm outlier in the early going as the colder pattern develops.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10.5 850s

[snow_wizard]

I'll be damned if the control run didn't go below -10 again.  Totally amazing how consistent that has been.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10.5 850s

Something is brewing.

[Geos]

About 2° colder tonight than last night in Sammamish. Noticing frost on lawns. Sitting at 34° in most places.

[joelgombiner]

[snow_wizard]

Really impressive improvement at the 500mb level on the GEFS.  A couple more runs with that type of improvement and we would be golden.

[RentonHill]

Just a little bit of spread on the ensembles 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

This is starting to come together.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Just a little bit of spread on the ensembles 

The mean is much improved over earlier runs.  A lot of cold members here.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really impressive improvement at the 500mb level on the GEFS.  A couple more runs with that type of improvement and we would be golden.

Yeah even a few notches and we see a modified blast.

[RentonHill]

CMCE stil going for that euro weekly look

[snow_wizard]

Average -7.1 on Feb 4 vs -3.4 on the 12z.  This is getting real now.

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The whole weekend was a disaster. Not one team I was rooting for won. Though I didn’t care about the Bengals vs Titans game. Only game I missed on though was the Niners over the packers. 

thought it was one of the most incredible playoff weekends in memory.  all 4 games fantastic and down to the second.  3 or the 4 teams I wanted to win, won (D**n Bills)

[MossMan]

Was a very dark night here 3yrs ago to the moment. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

CMCE stil going for that euro weekly look

It's 2 against 1 now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Was a very dark night here 3yrs ago to the moment. 

 

It had us fooled for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shocking ensemble improvement. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Things were also pretty bleak on the forum 1 year ago too…do remember with February 2021 was the first couple days of the month there was lots of fluctuations on the models. Jim was basically the only one who believed that was gonna work out. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Shocking ensemble improvement. 

It is. I could see it coming to fruition at Day 8. Here we go!

00z ECMWF has begun!

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

It is. I could see it coming to fruition at Day 8. Here we go!

00z ECMWF has begun!

Woah can we get a live odds update??

[Phishy Wx]

models are the 'away team' in the divisionals right now.  underdogs went 3 for 4.

[snow_wizard]

Control -14.1.

That is now something like 7 out of the last 8 runs the control has gone below -12.  And what do you know...the mean has made a big move toward it.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Things were also pretty bleak on the forum 1 year ago too…do remember with February 2021 was the first couple days of the month there was lots of fluctuations on the models. Jim was basically the only one who believed that was gonna work out. 

It's almost like February can't lose as of late.