PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely pivotal 18z and 00z runs forthcoming. 

[Slushy Inch]

18z looks slightly be better so far, but I'm probably jinxing it. The trough around Alaska is more compact. But also, the middle of the ridge looks weaker, if that falls apart it's over.

[MossMan]

.01” of falling fog so far on the day. 
35/37 on the day, currently 36.

6.86” on the month. 
 

Oh and it’s coming. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Chris said:

Clown range but SSW brewing.

 

 

Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late…

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Chris said:

Clown range but SSW brewing.

 

 

I’ll start getting interested if more EPS members get on board.

[TT-SEA]

Fog has lifted up into my area this afternoon... hoping the east wind can blow it out tonight. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late…

A January 1950 of spring equinoxes.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow 18z GFS OP so far is holding on.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

UKMET hasn't been mentioned in hott minute.

Only goes to 144 hours. Been a boring and totally worthless range the last few weeks!

[Phil]

In the meantime, this is what the GFS is projecting on D7.

This will probably be tough to overcome when rubber meets the road. A lot has to go right.

[BLI snowman]

50 minutes ago, Phil said:

New EPS weeklies are even more anemic with the Niña cell. Mediocre in presentation even with MJO transit thru IPWP domain.

By late Feb/early March it’s more like a phase 8/1 state with very little in the way of a low pass signal.

Warm and dry spring coming.

I'm feeling a reasonable summer, though. Reasonable as in closer to 2000s averages rather than 2014/2015/2017/2018/2021 conditions.

[Deweydog]

January 2023.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

In the meantime, this is what the GFS is projecting on D7.

No narration necessary.

Please narrate.

[Phil]

FWIW the Euro/EPS and GFS aren’t all that different thru D5.

But the GFS goes off on its own thereafter in the E-Asia/NPAC sector, which is kinda typical.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Warm and dry spring coming.

I'm feeling a reasonable summer, though. Reasonable as in closer to 2000s averages rather than 2014/2015/2017/2018/2021 conditions.

I will try to fill in for Jesse with weekly meltdowns. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Please narrate.

Strong PV. Good for that sea ice to keep building, though!

We'll reap the rewards 2023-25 with a slightly cooler globe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 186 you can already see the cave starting...

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hour 186 you can already see the cave starting...

Still looks very different than Euro at that hour.

[Phil]

12z EPS/GEPS/GEFS, respectively.

To me the GEFS looks lost over E-Siberia/NPAC.

 

[Phishy Wx]

this is one cold inversion.

 

29 at 2:30pm with freezing fog

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS

EURO

12z GFS

Oh geez...

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z GFS

EURO

12z GFS

Oh geez...

rip

[Deweydog]

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAP END IN 2019.

[Christensen87]

[Phishy Wx]

Gunna head to the our condo on Hilton Head Island, SC I think soon.  catch you guys in December

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely been some hints lately of some instability. Too little too late…

 

[Fircrest]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah…. We only do dogs here thanks.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Gunna head to the our condo on Hilton Head Island, SC I think soon.  catch you guys in December

So basically you are going somewhere colder?

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS is a good mountain snowfall pattern.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically you are going somewhere colder?

pretty much. lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Barf

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically you are going somewhere colder?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have ensemble improvement for the 31st...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

 

We call that cherry picking...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well... Not a step back on the GEFS yet...

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well... Not a step back on the GEFS yet...

It actually is a bit. -EPO signal substantially weaker versus 12z. Just enough cold members to keep it interesting.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

 

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That seems totally backwards!!!!

[Deweydog]

28 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

 

Typical inconsiderate, assh*le cat…

[Phil]

Feb 2022 might be just a tad different than Feb 2021…