PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Gradient Keeper]

Maybe fake cold.... Really need to see big improvements the next 2-3 days, or Winter(arctic/sustained cold) for the lowlands is likely over. I am seriously making that statement.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Feb 2022 might be just a tad different than Feb 2021…  

Good. February 2021 wasn't very good here. lol.

[Fircrest]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Typical inconsiderate, assh*le cat…

She's not very helpful with puzzles.

[TT-SEA]

Sure hope the east wind kicks in for King County in a few hours as the 18Z ECMWF shows...

[Phishy Wx]

well that 2 weeks on winter at the end of December was fun while it lasted 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well I still don't think the 18z ensembles were a trainwreck.

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Chris said:

Do you know what the latest SSW on record is?

Dynamic final warmings can be considered SSW events and in some cases produce similar outcomes re: blocking.

Latest one in recent years was March 2016, but that was a raging super niño.

If you’re looking at La Niña years, then both 1998/99 and 1983/84 had late season SSW events (that bordered on being final warming events but not quite since the wind reversals weren’t permanent).

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not quite sure when that 29 occurred between 10p-4a at SLE, but they could end up with a 39/29 today. 

[Meatyorologist]

Another sub 40 burger at SeaTac. This inversion has been performing better than I expected. Enjoying the clouds, too

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I still don't think the 18z ensembles were a trainwreck.

How many times have we seen this pattern since 2013?

Not a trainwreck verbatim, but nothing special either.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

Feb 2022 might be just a tad different than Feb 2021…  

Feb 2021 was warmer than normal here so we won't notice much difference.

[Phil]

I mean there’s a lot of cold available, but +TNH type patterns usually end up with the cold largely bottled up around the TPV.

We’ll see, though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG only made it up to 43F. Springfield got up to 49F.

[Deweydog]

Ugh!

Sun is blinding AF! Enough already!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EUG only made it up to 43F. Springfield got up to 49F.

50-burger **DENIED**!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37.8°F here after a max of 40.1. Socked in all day. Maybe finally some frost tonight?

[TacomaWaWx]

39/33 today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39/29 at SLE today for a -9 departure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still not ready to fork this winter yet. Canceling winter with 1 week in January left is Basically the equivalent of saying there will be no more +90 days during the first week of august. Time is definitely dwindling and for now it’s not promising at the moment but it can still happen. 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ugh!

Sun is blinding AF! Enough already!

Cloudy and 38.

[Gradient Keeper]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well I still don't think the 18z ensembles were a trainwreck.

They were not. Real good for the Columbia Basin for backdoor cold, BUT it's the GFS

 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Still not ready to fork this winter yet. Canceling winter with 1 week in January left is Basically the equivalent of saying there will be no more +90 days during the first week of august. Time is definitely dwindling and for now it’s not promising at the moment but it can still happen. 

Yeah A LOT can happen between now and mid March! Tons of time left. 

[FroYoBro]

Nice fake cold today. 43/30 and already down to 38. 

[snow_wizard]

Another chilly day here today with a 38/32 spread.  Monthly average has fallen back to 39.4 now.

As for the cold spell chances... I'm totally 50/50 on it.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah A LOT can happen between now and mid March! Tons of time left. 

It's a Nina also.  Remember how fooled we all were in 2019 thinking winter was over right about now.

[Skagit Weather]

1.3 degree spread on the day so far. High was 39.1F and low was 37.8F. That makes the average temperature below normal, but just barely. We'll probably see the temp drop in the next few hours, but wouldn't be surprised if we stay above freezing again.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Eujunga said:

Wall-to-wall sun and 52 here!

I'll take my 38.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

1.3 degree spread on the day so far. High was 39.1F and low was 37.8F. That makes the average temperature below normal, but just barely. We'll probably see the temp drop in the next few hours, but wouldn't be surprised if we stay above freezing again.

The surface gradient angles change pretty dramatically tonight.  That should shift some things around.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a Nina also.  Remember how fooled we all were in 2019 thinking winter was over right about now.

Big differences this year.   There might be something later in February or March though.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The surface gradient angles change pretty dramatically tonight.  That should shift some things around.

Sure hope that means sunny and much warmer here tomorrow... I am hopeful.

[snow_wizard]

The I-90 corridor from the Fire Training Academy to highway 18 is inversion central today.  That is really unusual to say the least.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure hope that means sunny and much warmer here tomorrow... I am hopeful.

It's possible.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The I-90 corridor from the Fire Training Academy to highway 18 is inversion central today.  That is really unusual to say the least.

I believe it is related to a weak trough that dove to the east today... which increased onshore flow temporarily and lifted the fog around the Seattle area and pushed it out here.   

[ShawniganLake]

Fog broke up a bit this afternoon.  43/32, so only a little warmer than average. Fog is screwing up those nice crisp frosty mornings we usually get during stretches of inactive weather this time of year. 

[jakerepp]

Looks like I'll pull off a sub-40 high today. Nice to see after being screwed out of one yesterday by a 40.1 at 12:04am.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big differences this year.   There might be something later in February or March though.

We're still waiting for the SSW to happen this year.  Should be soon.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another chilly day here today with a 38/32 spread.  Monthly average has fallen back to 39.4 now.

As for the cold spell chances... I'm totally 50/50 on it.

I admire your optimism. I'm 22/77, and the 1% I haven't figured out what. We need real improvements the next 2-3 days and a consistent trend.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fog broke up a bit this afternoon.  43/32, so only a little warmer than average. Fog is screwing up those nice crisp frosty mornings we usually get during stretches of inactive weather this time of year. 

Is your normal still really that low?  The Jan normals in the Puget Sound region have skyrocketed over the last 30 years.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I admire your optimism. I'm 22/77, and the 1% I haven't figured out what. We need real improvements the next 2-3 days and a consistent trend.

It would be really unusual to not score in the last half of the winter after a good December event during a Nina.  I'm betting it will happen somehow.  Might take some time though.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're still waiting for the SSW to happen this year.  Should be soon.

I don't think its going to be any time soon.