PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not a good showing today from the GFS PNA ensemble forecast. Glad we have the Euro PNA forecast in our court though. 

I just hope the EPS doesn't get watered down on the 12z.  Last night's run had great promise.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GEM has gone to camp ECMWF for the time being.  Also interesting to note the control model on the 12 GEFS gets solidly cold just after the 20th.  It picked up on the last cold wave before the operational GFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just hope the EPS doesn't get watered down on the 12z.  Last night's run had great promise.

Those teleconnections don't really seem to make much difference here in terms of Arctic airmasses making it this far south. I hear about when they get favorable and we proceed to have an airmass that's slightly cooler than normal. And last year, where the teleconnections were apparently good in Feb, we ended up having a warmer than normal month and didn't notice anything unusual about the weather pattern in this location.

At this point the opposite teleconnections might be just as good for here.

[Blizzard777]

33 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

The pump is fairly new. We bought the house a little over 5 years ago, and the pump needed to be replaced then. As did all the duct work and insulation. So, while this isn't a "new" problem, it's the first time WE have had to deal with it. I really don't know why the pump failed. Hubbs is at Lowes, renting a pump, so we can get the standing water out of there, at least. He is going to call some Crawl company tomorrow to get it looked at.  On top of all this, I threw my back out on Friday and have been bedridden since! lol 2022 is starting off GREAT! 

Ouch! Done the back thing too….. painful to even try and stand.  Don’t worry,  Theirs plenty of 2022 left for things to go right!!!  Do your best to have a good day and hope your husband has success in today’s challenge fighting nature.  

[Timmy Supercell]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No, we still haven't had one since Jan 2017. Longest stretch on record and getting pretty hard to believe.

KHIO almost had one every winter, sometimes would happen for 2-3 in a row. 

[snow_wizard]

8 out of 30 GEFS members get cold after the 20th.  Nice to see that.

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The longer this goes, the more I'm thinking it's a trend. Like our rapidly increasing heat in the summer.

EUG could simply be bad luck. I've mentioned how my last place seems like it has been seeing an increase in extreme cold since my stay there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

KHIO almost had one every winter, sometimes would happen for 2-3 in a row. 

Yeah the southerly winds here prevent it from happening here. Way more susceptible to marine influence in this location. Sucks.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Those teleconnections don't really seem to make much difference here in terms of Arctic airmasses making it this far south. I hear about when they get favorable and we proceed to have an airmass that's slightly cooler than normal. And last year, where the teleconnections were apparently good in Feb, we ended up having a warmer than normal month and didn't notice anything unusual about the weather pattern in this location.

At this point the opposite teleconnections might be just as good for here.

EPO is more important for you than it is up here.  That helps drive it south.  Even Jan 1950 had a crazy N to S gradient, but it was so extreme your area still did well enough.  These -PNA heavy cold waves aren't the best for your area.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

8 out of 30 GEFS members get cold after the 20th.  Nice to see that.

That's still glass mostly empty 

[Omegaraptor]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I imagine we will torch again if another AR is going into Washington. SLE had a 57/52 on the 6th, set a record warm low. 

SLE average temp MTD is 43.9, 6°F warmer than Seattle. Temps have been closer to most of the Bay Area (500 miles south) than to Seattle (180 miles north).

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS has above normal heights over the Aleutians late in the run whereas the operational has a low there.  Looks like the GFS operational is an outlier.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That's still glass mostly empty 

But it's a move toward the EPS.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS has above normal heights over the Aleutians late in the run whereas the operational has a low there.  Looks like the GFS operational is an outlier.

Maybe there’s hope for January after all. If we can avoid too much torching we may be right around average 2/3rds of the way through the month. Would be cool to get back to back colder than normal months. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

SLE average temp MTD is 43.9, 6°F warmer than Seattle. Temps have been closer to most of the Bay Area (500 miles south) than to Seattle (180 miles north).

Ouch.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Maybe there’s hope for January after all. If we can avoid too much torching we may be right around average 2/3rds of the way through the month. Would be cool to get back to back colder than normal months. 

We have a decent shot at the trifecta this winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We have a decent shot at the trifecta this winter.

Too early for certainty obviously but I hope so. We haven’t pulled off a colder than normal DEC JAN FEB combo since 16/17. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 50 now in North Bend.    Just a spectacular day.   Hopefully Snoqualmie Pass opens soon.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So tired of it... send it Oregon and California.    Its been just ridiculous in western WA and SW BC.  

We have had several too. We are at about 47" of precip on the water year now, which is roughly 12" above average. Western Oregon had a very wet December, and very wet first week of January, SLE had 2.34" of rain in one day this week. 

[TacomaWaWx]

This should get us above average. Euro is fairly dry after the AR passes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fact is the GFS and GEFS is not good. 

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not a good showing today from the GFS PNA ensemble forecast. Glad we have the Euro PNA forecast in our court though. 

This is actually a different PNA calculation than the one on WxBell. Just FWIW.

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So tired of it... send it Oregon and California.    Its been just ridiculous in western WA and SW BC.  

That’s climo.

[RentonHill]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fact is the GFS and GEFS is not good. 

I mean…there’s some more cold members at the end compared to 6z. Map doesn’t look as good as EPS though. 

[MossMan]

I think Andrew needs more puppies. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not much of a north south gradient overall the last two weeks. Looks like the biggest gradient in the region is between the coastal states and Montana 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I think Andrew needs more puppies. 

We will hear plenty of DevAStatING TreNDZ posts for the next week or two then he will cheer up. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Time to bring out the forks. It was a good run but we are due for 4-6 years of warm winters. Probably over now. Only think to look forward to is the sweet release of death.

Andrew getting his fork warmed up. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not much of a north south gradient overall the last two weeks. Looks like the biggest gradient in the region is between the coastal states and Montana 

 

I’m in the blue! 

[RentonHill]

Euro

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s climo.

 

To some extent... but what has happened in western WA and SW BC this fall and winter so far has not been that close to climo.

Wettest fall in history in Seattle... and now already already well above normal for rainfall since the start of winter.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

To some extent... but what has happened in western WA and SW BC this fall and winter so far has not been that close to climo.

Wettest fall in history in Seattle... and now already already well above normal for rainfall since the start of winter.

We’ve had above average precip every month since august 2021. Even with drier weather coming up January will likely be above average rainfall too. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve had above average precip every month since august 2021. Even with drier weather coming up January will likely be above average rainfall too. 

Yeah would be preferable to have this pattern in the spring or summer where the biosphere can put it to work after so many dry years. But alas..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This winter has reminded me quite a bit of a late 90s winter. It has been very active and definitely felt like winter, as opposed to the last couple that were fairly bland overall. Overall it’s almost certain to be a mild/warm winter down here, but it has felt like winter and with any luck we ll have a chilly spring. 

[Omegaraptor]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s climo.

There is no way Everett and Bellingham are sunnier than Portland

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah would be preferable to have this pattern in the spring or summer where the biosphere can put it to work after so many dry years. But alas..

Yeah we need a wet spring. Our winters have been plenty wet recently but when we only get half of our normal rainfall in the spring like the last few all that rainfall doesn’t mean much. We lucked out in 2019 with a wet summer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But yes, it’s been raining plenty down here, no need to send us your spare ARs. 

[The Blob]

We should just aim for record breaking highs and accept we are apart of California now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But yes, it’s been raining plenty down here, no need to send us your spare ARs. 

Joshua would disagree. Seriously though the drought map looks much better than it did a few weeks ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Joshua would disagree. Seriously though the drought map looks much better than it did a few weeks ago. 

It’s been 10 years since our last cool/wet spring. When I think about the spring of 2012 it seems like it happened in a different climate. Since 2014 May has functioned more like a summer month, we still have the occasional frost/freeze in May, but 2012 and 13 showed me what this climate is capable of in May. We had a low of 25 on May 1, 2013, and then a 41/34 day on the 22nd with snow falling in the morning. May 2012 we had several lows in the upper 20s throughout the month.