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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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Finally a GFS run with some eye candy!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Finally a GFS run with some eye candy!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_56.png

 

Look at that CCG!

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Look at that CCG!

Unfortunately the operational is an extreme outlier. 

gfs-portland-us-455n-122.thumb.jpeg.22802df6ca54a704b3e59cad28366e26.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeesh, it appears that by Thursday I'll be past 10 inches of rain on the year already. 

Hopefully the temps stay a bit cooler, and the snow level lower, than currently forecast or else we're gonna get some major flooding on the Skykomish, Snohomish, Snoqualmie and likely the Skagit as well.

Edit: If y'all wanna see something crazy and maybe help me understand this: It's currently 43 in Gold bar. Immediately drops to freezing past Index, and even Seatac is at freezing. 

How are we so warm from my town to Sultan?

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32 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

30 degrees this morning and raining, getting real icy out.

I was wondering what would happen with that band of precip coming inland... upper levels are way too warm to support snow but the timing in the early morning means its coming through when it is still cold at the surface.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Well still have about 4" of snow on the ground at my place. Surprised at the staying power, it's really compact and icy, so hopefully it sticks around a while. Up to 15 days now! Maybe we can make it 20 :)

Same here but I am ready for it to melt.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unfortunately the operational is an extreme outlier. 

gfs-portland-us-455n-122.thumb.jpeg.22802df6ca54a704b3e59cad28366e26.jpeg

You mean all other ensemble members are extreme outliers... ;)

It’s coming... #january20th

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 hours ago, RayRay said:

Excited for mid/late january/february for some more snow. Going to Winthrop on Friday!!!

Going to do some cross county skiing?  BTW, regardless of where you are staying, a drive up to Sun Mountain Lodge is definitely worth it.   Gorgeous views, great ski trails and snowshoe trails, and walking around inside the lodge is nice too.  We stay there during winter every year, and really like it.

 

20190202_155445.thumb.jpg.84ba8a06922f0a1e689ccfcc5bf341ce.jpg20210227_161121.thumb.jpg.a90b3a95f438b44f688d7518ae44d436.jpg20210228_115718.thumb.jpg.2d8ee874f9cfe72e0e8c2f5296fc3df7.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Nice to have to a couple of dry days but that’s over with. Rain moved in this morning and quite moderate.  Currently 40. 

08CD8DE8-8A43-43C3-9E7C-386736280DFB.gif

This afternoon might actually be fairly dry. Tomorrow is the worst of the rain and then it looks basically dry and mild on Wednesday after mid to late morning.   Not as bad as it looked a couple days ago.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wasn’t really expecting rain down here today. Wet commute. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Going to do some cross county skiing?  BTW, regardless of where you are staying, a drive up to Sun Mountain Lodge is definitely worth it.   Gorgeous views, great ski trails and snowshoe trails, and walking around inside the lodge is nice too.  We stay there during winter every year, and really like it.

 

20190202_155445.thumb.jpg.84ba8a06922f0a1e689ccfcc5bf341ce.jpg20210227_161121.thumb.jpg.a90b3a95f438b44f688d7518ae44d436.jpg20210228_115718.thumb.jpg.2d8ee874f9cfe72e0e8c2f5296fc3df7.jpg

We've done that sleigh ride at night.  Pretty spectacular looking back at the lodge seeing the lights.  They have a big tent somewhere alone the way and you stop, go in and have drink and food.  A local cowboy (actually a retired teacher) is sitting by a wood stove playing some old classic western tunes.  It's a fun little adventure the lodge offers. 

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This afternoon might actually be fairly dry. Tomorrow is the worst of the rain and then it looks basically dry and mild on Wednesday after mid to late morning.   Not as bad as it looked a couple days ago.

I was watching fcs yesterday because I'm back to in person school and have to eat lunch outside, I think the rain will mostly stop around noon (hopefully)

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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42F and cloudy.

  • Rain 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, Prairiedog said:

We've done that sleigh ride at night.  Pretty spectacular looking back at the lodge seeing the lights.  They have a big tent somewhere alone the way and you stop, go in and have drink and food.  A local cowboy (actually a retired teacher) is sitting by a wood stove playing some old classic western tunes.  It's a fun little adventure the lodge offers. 

We wanted to do that a couple of years ago, but it rained before we got there and the trail for the sleigh ride wasn't in good enough shape.  Good to hear that it is worth it.

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gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

12z GFS is once again aggressive with AK blocking. Not the best resulting troughing, but an interesting outcome nonetheless.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Image

 

"For 2021, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 54.5 degrees F, 2.5 degrees above the 20th-century average and ranked as the fourth-warmest year in the 127-year period of record. The six warmest years on record have all occurred since 2012."

 

grid-ranks-prcp-202101-202112.png

 

hmmmm... I wonder what might be causing all that red in a La Niña year? 🤔

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The GEFS and CMC ensembles are mirror images of one another, both depicting a stagnant +TNH/Baffin vortex pattern all the way to hr384.

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

hmmmm... I wonder what might be causing all that red in a La Niña year? 🤔

Combination of a warmer climate and urbanization.

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Just now, Phil said:

Combination of a warmer climate and urbanization.

Lots of urbanization in Wyoming and Nevada!

I think this rests comfortably in the "D**n you, AGW" category...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lots of urbanization in Wyoming and Nevada!

I think this rests comfortably in the "D**n you, AGW" category...

There is a crapload of development/urbanization around these observation sites, yes. Even in Wyoming.

Obviously it’s not responsible for all of the measured warming, but it plays a statistically significant role.

Satellite obs are the way to go here, IMO.

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"Twister rips up Clark County" - The Oregonian, 1/11/2008

One of the only newspaper articles of a northwest weather event I have and still have it 14 years later.

I think I stopped getting these by that following winter.

IMG_4797.JPG

IMG_4798.JPG

IMG_4800.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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17 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

@Philknows how to analyze (dismiss) climate data better than NOAA, knows how to assess (dismiss) historic snow events better than local experts, and knows how to forecast better than our local NWS offices. You should know this by now.

I certainly know how to analyze it better than you.

And a large number of scientists + peer reviewed studies support my statement. It’s not even controversial, actually.

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“Urbanization doesn’t affect temperature”.

— @1000'NorthBend

I paraphrased that correctly, right?

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Since I’m still sick and really bored of watching tv and playing video games…decided to do a statistical overview of 2021. Rainfall, positive/negative monthly temp anomalies and snowfall. 

JAN 9.79” +1.7

FEB 5.27” -1.6 snow-15.5”

MAR 2.68” -1.0

APR 1.16” +2.7

MAY 1.72” -0.3

JUN 2.38” +4.0

JUL 0.00” +1.7

AUG 0.08” +1.2

SEP 4.06” -0.1

OCT 5.43” -0.7

NOV 9.72” +2.2

DEC 4.62” -2.1 snow-11.0”

Finished 2021 with 46.91” of rainfall, 26.5” of snowfall. Had 5 +90 days and 6 sub freezing highs. Set tons of records in terms of heat, cold and snowfall. 
 

Noteable stats (records 2005-2022)

All time record high temp-106

All time record high min-71

2nd place all time for +90 days-5

2nd warmest June-64.5 degrees

2nd place +80 days-35

All time record low max temp-24

Most subfreezing highs in a year on record-6

Most measurable snowfall days in a year-13

2nd snowiest December on record-11.0”

3rd and 4th snowiest months on record FEB-15.5” DEC-11.0”

Snowiest year on record-26.5”

Driest APR on record-1.16”

 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The temp spread for the year of 2021 is also a record here. Not as insane as Lytton BC hitting 120 degrees and -3 in the same year…but we hit 106 degrees and then had a low of 16 too. Pretty insane stuff. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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My location is extremely rural and 2021 was a very warm year overall. 2022 seems to have picked right up where it left off. After this week we will be well on our way to a top 5 warm January. 

I do have some hope for February-May. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My location is extremely rural and 2021 was a very warm year overall. 2022 seems to have picked right up where it left off. After this week we will be well on our way to a top 5 warm January. 

I do have some hope for February-May. 

Positive anomalies heavily outweighed negative ones in 2021 here too. February and December were pretty nice…obviously this isn’t a way to calculate the average temp for a whole year but if you combine all the negative and positive monthly anomalies at my location this last year it’s +7.7. June itself was +4.0 and April was +2.7 those were very torchy months. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I never said that you don't. It just gets tiring having someone from the opposite coast weigh in our local weather with such arrogance when your understanding of the intricacies of our terrain, hydrology, and microclimates is so basic, as is evident to anyone that actually lives here. An average PNW resident who doesn't care about weather knows more about the importance of snowpack to our region than you do. That's not a diss, they're going to know more because they actually live here and it affects them. It's just that it makes your "I know more" attitude (see above) grating. You don't see PNWers here dismissing the veracity of centuries-old snowfall records on Maryland's highest peaks (we call them foothills here).

So, you’re upset because I questioned anecdotal reports in a newspaper article written 140 years ago? Are you serious?

And when did I ever question the “importance of snowpack”? That’s a load of crap.

BTW, I’ve never claimed to have any in-depth understanding of  your “terrain, hydrology, and microclimates”. Like, ever?

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@1000'NorthBendYou could’ve just asked me to change my attitude, instead of spilling the entirely of your conscious and subconscious mind on the table. 

It wasn’t my intention to rub anyone the wrong way. I’m sorry if that happened.

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My location is extremely rural and 2021 was a very warm year overall. 2022 seems to have picked right up where it left off. After this week we will be well on our way to a top 5 warm January. 

I do have some hope for February-May. 

No doubt it was a very warm year nationally.

I hope nobody got the impression I was questioning that. 

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