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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Main difference between 18/19 and 21/22 is this winter had a pretty solid event in the first half while that one didn’t. This winters first half was much cooler than that one and wetter. I Still think something happens next month though despite that. Recently these warm Januaries have led to cold re emerging in February. 

Historically a winter like this would be much more likely to deliver again, albeit probably not as significantly from Seattle-north. Have had a first hit and also have a favorable Pacific for late winter action.

You would probably have to go back to 1886-87 to find a parallel to 2018-19. Completely crappy first half of winter in an El Nino leading to big late winter returns. Very anomalous and seemingly driven by the big SSW that midwinter.

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Who is this “we,” kemosabe? I seriously doubt Nashville is modeled to receive 2 feet or more of snow in a single day.

Your less fortunate neighbors to the south-- my people, of course.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I wouldn't go that far....

Well let's think about those characters too and line up a few qualities they embody in the thoughts of many of us, even if we don't say it.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Historically a winter like this would be much more likely to deliver again, albeit probably not as significantly from Seattle-north. Have had a first hit and also have a favorable Pacific for late winter action.

You would probably have to go back to 1886-87 to find a parallel to 2018-19. Completely crappy first half of winter in an El Nino leading to big late winter returns. Very anomalous and seemingly driven by the big SSW that midwinter.

 There’s been quite a few winters since 2005 that had snow/cold events in November and December then led to events in February here. Only exceptions I found were 09/10 and 14/15 but those were both El Niño. 
 18/19 was a very odd one. Conventional thinking would have you assuming the torchiness of everything leading up to February that we wouldn’t see anything. Plus the El Niño it was really easy to write that winter off entirely by mid January. 
 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

What was your snow total for 2021? I finished with 20.8" here, with 15.5" of that occurring in February. I'm guessing you did a lot better than me in December and a lot worse in February.

December we were at about 4.5 inches, give or take some. February is kinda iffy-- really messy situation with the thickest ice accumulations I've seen in this location-- over about 5-6 inches of snow, give or take some.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

What was your snow total for 2021? I finished with 20.8" here, with 15.5" of that occurring in February. I'm guessing you did a lot better than me in December and a lot worse in February.

Nuts that you got 15.5 inches last February. I only had about two inches here with tons of sleet/freezing rain. 
 

Still a little salty about that.
 

 

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CFS tried but didn't quite get there. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54/46 today down to 52 now. Average temp for the month on January 10th was 38.6…up to 41.4 now which is average. 3 days totally undid the negative departure. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looking over every winter since 2005…like I was saying earlier more times than not an event in November or December has been a good sign except in El Niño years like 09/10 and 14/15. Pretty sure 06/07 was an El Niño too but I’ll put it on the list anyways. This is why I feel fairly confident we see something in February (has been very good betting on February recently) but you never know obviously. 

Nov. 2006-Jan. 2007

Dec. 2008-Feb. 2009

Nov. 2010-Feb. 2011

Dec. 2013-Feb. 2014

Dec. 2016-Jan/Feb 2017

Nov/Dec 2017-Feb. 2018

Dec. 2021-?

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Nuts that you got 15.5 inches last February. I only had about two inches here with tons of sleet/freezing rain. 
 

Still a little salty about that.
 

 

Even downtown Vancouver only had 9-10". Totals really picked up just north of there as we really cashed in on the 12th for a period while PDX/VUO were getting sleet.

Was very similar to January 1980 and January 1998. So good news is you're probably safe for another 18-23 years.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Two years ago right now it was quite wintry for some folks in the region and there was news of some virus doing some viral things.

Really solid event in Everett. 10" of snow and a couple highs below freezing. Pretty unusual how sharp the cutoff was with that one right around Seattle.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really solid event in Everett. 10" of snow and a couple highs below freezing. Pretty unusual how sharp the cutoff was with that one right around Seattle.

Could’ve been worse here… it really just fell apart last minute. 37/32 with a trace of snow on 1/13 and 36/28 with 1” of snow on 1/14. We also had a 38/30 day on 1/8 with 1/2” of snow. Could’ve been a much better event here but we’ve had plenty of good winters before and after it so no big deal. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really solid event in Everett. 10" of snow and a couple highs below freezing. Pretty unusual how sharp the cutoff was with that one right around Seattle.

Only 3'' or so here.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Insert lyrics to Mr. Brightside. Or Mr. Blue Sky. Or I Can See Clearly Now. Or Sunshine on My Shoulders. You get the point.

IMG_3096_HDR.jpg

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Just now, T-Town said:

Great shot!

Thanks! Just happened to see it during my lunch break!

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Two years ago right now it was quite wintry for some folks in the region and there was news of some virus doing some viral things.

Indeed! My fun was just beginning up here! 
Oh and here is today’s  Skykomish shot! Snow banks are not quite as tall as last week but still impressive. And still feels like winter as it was 37 and raining there. Back at work is sunny and springing! 

30F0F7B2-35B5-491B-BC19-A019F349FB0F.jpeg

28CEB68B-4E46-4865-8982-C142F273F88C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Indeed! My fun was just beginning up here! 
Oh and here is today’s  Skykomish shot! Snow banks are not quite as tall as last week but still impressive. And still feels like winter as it was 37 and raining there. Back at work is sunny and springing! 

30F0F7B2-35B5-491B-BC19-A019F349FB0F.jpeg

28CEB68B-4E46-4865-8982-C142F273F88C.jpeg

Yeah... I would not like that at all.   I am glad we mix out easier here (at the same elevation) and the snow does not stay around too long.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  Found the post i was looking for. Pretty sure it got snowy and cold during this 5 day period. I think we're running a few days behind the 2019 schedule but we will get there. And miss me with all the "facts" and mesotropical acronyms about why this is a totally different situation. The best analogs are the most recent ones, imo. 

On 1/23/2019 at 12:51 PM, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-61-1.png

 

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11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

  Found the post i was looking for. Pretty sure it got snowy and cold during this 5 day period. I think we're running a few days behind the 2019 schedule but we will get there. And miss me with all the "facts" and mesotropical acronyms about why this is a totally different situation. The best analogs are the most recent ones, imo. 

 

Good find... I was starting to doubt it that day.   There was a couple bad EPS runs mixed in with an otherwise consistent and strong signal for cold.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like Australia just tied its all time heat record. 50.7°C (123.3°F) at Onslow, Western Australia. That’s a coastal town!

Like I said before something has changed and it changed fast. The world is experiencing extreme weather events. Crazy..

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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