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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The January 2020 event was actually pretty decent down here, I dumped on it way more than I should have. Probably due to the fact we were just coming off of February 2019, also the models backed off so much, there was no sticking snow below 1000', etc... But it was still probably our 3rd best snow event in January in 11 years. We had about 10", that January overall was pretty putrid. 

That January produced one of my best 7-days of snowfall. It was slightly better than 2012 but nowhere near as snowy as 2017.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hit 36 at the house this morning, pretty mild for a clear night, though it rained until almost midnight. 0.37" of rain yesterday. 

Some low clouds and 44 here in Salem. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1/14/20 - 5.0"
1/15/20 - 2.2"
1/16/20 - 6.0"

That little group there ranks up with the likes of Feb 2019 and Dec 2015 type snow. But... no full cigar. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Frogs will start chorusing almost any day now.  Absolutely love the biorhythms of life esp those driven by photoperiods but I'd pass it up for a good February.  Chorusing and La Nina seem like a contradiction although they're not connected to anything but increased daylight.  Maybe we can get the frogs to chorus in some serious cold and snow despite longer days.  

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

But close.   Its hard to get a pattern that is extremely wet at PDX and dry for western WA.   And by February we can start getting large percentages of the monthly average with just a couple storms.   

This is trolling right? You use this argument ALL the time and now it’s “close”!?!?

75E8733B-C062-4CAD-8D6A-37C4B6B8AD0F.png

97DE449F-A2C5-4CDC-8D62-3BC6A7CA802A.png

1ECFE938-7998-4679-98C2-097866853B87.png

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

At KSEA the February and March imprint is made known on the recent upgrade to 1991-2020 normals. While all other months raised by at least 0.3°F (most over 0.5°F), Feb and Mar only went up by 0.1°F. May July and Dec all rose by a full 1°F 😬

Sep-Oct-Dec have skyrocketed in the new averages here. Nov and Mar haven’t really changed at all, even cooled slightly. It’s weird.

In fact, Mar now averages more snow here than Dec. Comical.

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Trolling?  😀

It's hard to imagine a scenario that does not include a drier period for a couple weeks at this point.   Might be the wettest October 1st - January 15th period in history for some places in WA and BC.    Even Portland is at 200% of normal for January so far.

You

Say

This

Every

Single

Year

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21 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

This is trolling right? You use this argument ALL the time and now it’s “close”!?!?

75E8733B-C062-4CAD-8D6A-37C4B6B8AD0F.png

97DE449F-A2C5-4CDC-8D62-3BC6A7CA802A.png

1ECFE938-7998-4679-98C2-097866853B87.png

Excellent point!  

However... it still stands to reason that a drier pattern is coming based on the excessive rain over the last 90 days.   It would be nice if that happened up here with a wet pattern in Oregon and California.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

what he's not mentioning is the likely flip in early Feb.  they'll all start freaking out again soon enough

Don’t worry we’re gonna torch massively in February.

That should make @MossMan happy. 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Models continue to be disappointing. No realistic signal for western cold emerging, yet.

January is dead in the water. I think in about 7-10 days the models will start looking interesting again. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Models continue to be disappointing. No realistic signal for western cold emerging, yet.

-PNA should return at the end of the month or in early February. However very strong PV could make it difficult for big cold. Might be a zonal Andrew pattern.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Excellent point!  

However... it still stands to reason that a drier pattern is coming based on the excessive rain over the last 90 days.   It would be nice if that happened up here with a wet pattern in Oregon and California.    

I agree that we were due for a dry period. Just found it amusing that now Portland and Seattle are close. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

January is dead in the water. I think in about 7-10 days the models will start looking interesting again. 

Matt said 20 days about 10 days ago so we are half way there! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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https://methowvalleynews.com/2022/01/12/snow-way-around-it-removal-takes-time/?fbclid=IwAR08I1UVXdZp_jMokbIeDWCq2pp7FzEtzd7nt5srcVMiTSTq509kZd2rGfw
 

Sounds like a ton of work but it also sounds like they are taking it in stride. Wish we were living there right now. 

807FC5C4-9037-46B1-9615-9F46AF263850.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Scrolling through an older thread, I saw that I was locking horns with record low temperatures in May. It was 23 on 5/8 (22 in 2002) and I posted that there had only been 3 minimums over 40 degrees for the whole year as of that date going into middle of May. Teens were going on in April.

And I think I remember posting that the average low in March 2021 was that of a typical January.

Crazy how we roasted so much that Summer. I don't think I started matching record highs until June. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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48F with some thin clouds.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

That climb in January average temperatures is astounding. I just don't see why January would warm so much while February (and December to a lesser extent) stay cool. If anything, due to the maritime climate, sun angles, and a touch of seasonal lag, January should stay our coldest month of the year. And even if La Niña's tend to have the flip switched later in the winter there's no reason we should be experiencing more of them in a warming climate.

I wonder if it's truly down to luck or if there's something else at play that has become dominant for our Januaries. 

The trend has been going on for so long now that I think you have to assume there's more going on than just luck, but I have no idea what the mechanism could possibly be. At PDX February has been colder than January for 4 years in a row, which has never happened before in the period of record, and it seems like a decent bet that it could happen yet again this year.

It's not like it's just been barely colder either, the last 4 years January has averaged 44.8 compared to 41.5 for February.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Matt said 20 days about 10 days ago so we are half way there! 

We have a window near the end of the month! But it’s probably gonna be along the lines of a ‘69 El Camino wing window which is sticking and leaky.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

At KSEA the February and March imprint is made known on the recent upgrade to 1991-2020 normals. While all other months raised by at least 0.3°F (most over 0.5°F), Feb and Mar only went up by 0.1°F. May July and Dec all rose by a full 1°F 😬

Is there a website to retrieve the 1991-2020 normals?  I could have sworn I came across a site, but for the life of me I can't find it.  That's always the biggest struggle I have, keeping bookmarks organized....

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

https://methowvalleynews.com/2022/01/12/snow-way-around-it-removal-takes-time/?fbclid=IwAR08I1UVXdZp_jMokbIeDWCq2pp7FzEtzd7nt5srcVMiTSTq509kZd2rGfw
 

Sounds like a ton of work but it also sounds like they are taking it in stride. Wish we were living there right now. 

807FC5C4-9037-46B1-9615-9F46AF263850.jpeg

We still have roads that are down to one lane roads.  Main roads are ok.  I see dump trucks all over moving snow, but hard to find places to put it. Whatever places they normally put it are hard to access. I see deer all the time on the roads because they have no other place to walk.  There is also a wild turkey family in my neighborhood walking on the road constantly.  I used to rarely see them, but now it's every time I get in the car. 

Icicle Road from the edge of town all the way to the barriers  is now only open to residents who live there, and probably like that for the rest of Winter. The barriers are at the end of the county road where the forest service road begins. They never plow beyond that and it becomes a place for snowmobiling, snowshoeing, cross country skiing, etc).  

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1 hour ago, James Jones said:

The trend has been going on for so long now that I think you have to assume there's more going on than just luck, but I have no idea what the mechanism could possibly be. At PDX February has been colder than January for 4 years in a row, which has never happened before in the period of record, and it seems like a decent bet that it could happen yet again this year.

It's not like it's just been barely colder either, the last 4 years January has averaged 44.8 compared to 41.5 for February.

And yet we were still above normal last February down here. But colder than Jan.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Is there a website to retrieve the 1991-2020 normals?  I could have sworn I came across a site, but for the life of me I can't find it.  That's always the biggest struggle I have, keeping bookmarks organized....

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate and https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/?fbclid=IwAR3VHcn6uDSOVR-MFtIwnJzfhFQj392kDJlsNIOjbdKnahjd8OqtNN3olQw are great tools :)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

We have a window near the end of the month! But it’s probably gonna be along the lines of a ‘69 El Camino wing window which is sticking and leaky.

Nothing a little new weatherstripping and WD-40 can’t fix. It’s coming! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, James Jones said:

The trend has been going on for so long now that I think you have to assume there's more going on than just luck, but I have no idea what the mechanism could possibly be. At PDX February has been colder than January for 4 years in a row, which has never happened before in the period of record, and it seems like a decent bet that it could happen yet again this year.

It's not like it's just been barely colder either, the last 4 years January has averaged 44.8 compared to 41.5 for February.

*sorry for the wall of text, i just love this stat stuff and i can go on and on abt it

Winter.png

There is a mechanism that has driven the January average upward, and it's really a combination of several factors, mainly statistical.

You must keep in mind that the graph reflects 30 year running averages, so it's just a composite of those 30 years.

This means that the beginning of the time period, encompassing the late 1940s through 1970s, includes pretty much all of the great January tempests during the SeaTac POR, including January's '47, '49, '50, '54, '57, '63, '69, and '80. And those are just the "great" Januaries. Believe it or not, there was once a time when January regularly came in with a sub-40°F average, and the years in between were no exception. From 1946 to 1964; a sample size of 19 years; there were only four years where January averaged 40°F or more. In that same time span there were two years where January came in with a sub-30°F average. This means that during that stretch, you were only twice as likely to come across a 40°F January as you were a 20°F January! That would be unheard of during a 19 year stretch today.

The next piece on the puzzle emerges when we look beyond January 1980. That month is a very important; not only is it the last "great" January, but it is also the last sub-35°F January KSEA has ever recorded. In fact, that month marks the end of the "great January" era, and from then on, most Jan's are 40°F+; it's as if that year was a sort of changing point in how January behaved in our climate.

Putting it all together, this means that as we slide the 30 year average forward, starting in the 1949-78 package, we not only lose our best Januaries, but we also start factoring in our warmer, more modern Januaries. This essentially means that, as we slide forward year after year, we're replacing our coldest Januaries with our warmest ones. This has a profound effect on the graph, producing a warming trend which exceeds what you would normally expect from AGW.

You might ask yourself then, wouldn't that insane warming trend in the 30 year Averages slow down after the 1980-2009 package, when the "great January" period leaves the 30yr focal point? Well, in short, it does. Since the late 2000's, the Jan warming trend has slowed down significantly on the graph, to a rate much closer to AGW.

--

As for why it's been running warmer than February by a solid 2°F+, that answer lies in the latter. February's deal is pretty much the opposite of January. As it turns out, the 70's and 80's, with one massive fat exception, weren't all that kind to February. This last decade however has seen a few more sub-42°F's, and of course Feb 2019. For the last decade or two, we've stalled the graph by replacing the warmer Februaries with the cooler ones, allowing January to play catch-up.

I do not think it is physically possible for January to beat out December, let alone lose much more ground. In the coming decades, February's luck will run out, and January's more moderate rise will prevail. December will start warming more regularly. That's just my guess though.

Perhaps there are certain mechanisms in a warming climate that have promoted cooler weather patterns during February and warmer ones during January. I have no earthly idea.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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29 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

lmao 18z GFS. We have to be close to rock bottom. 

Petition to rename January to "false summer"... :rolleyes:

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Spring starts January 2nd.

Uh oh, he'll probably make another thread. My guess is "PNW January 2022, January is the New June"

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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