PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Kuna_Idaho_Dude said:

Man all those DVDs, love it!

We live in the dark ages still with very crappy HughsNet satellite internet which is the equivalent to 1990’s dialup so no streaming options! Also we only get 1 bar cell reception in the master bedroom otherwise no cell service. Fun fact, Netflix still offers the DVD mail rental service and we do it!  

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We live in the dark ages still with very crappy HughsNet satellite internet which is the equivalent to 1990’s dialup so no streaming options! Also we only get 1 bar cell reception in the master bedroom otherwise no cell service. Fun fact, Netflix still offers the DVD mail rental service and we do it!  

Have you looked at fiber optic wifi?

[RentonHill]

GEFS Day 10 v 18z

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS Day 10 v 18z

That's good.

[RentonHill]

GEFS 850s Day 11ish v 18z v 12z

[Anti Marine Layer]

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS 850s Day 11ish v 18z v 12z

Killing off more and more Sh*t members every run.

[RentonHill]

GEFS 850s Day 12ish vs 18z vs 12z. Solidly better than both. 00z GFS/GEFS puts us back on track, imo. Since the whole setup takes place days 8-10 now the euro OP will be watching. Unless your name is rob

[Jbolin]

Had to wait a month but won $1000 in the work pool by predicting the Packers would lose to the 49'ers in the (DR) 13-10.

That also means it's gonna snow a foot, in the next two weeks.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS 850s Day 12ish vs 18z vs 12z. Solidly better than both. 00z GFS/GEFS puts us back on track, imo. Since the whole setup takes place days 8-10 now the euro OP will be watching. Unless your name is rob

 

 

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

 

 

anything after day 7 is meaningless right???

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

anything after day 7 is meaningless right???

Pretty much unless there is ensemble support.

[snow_wizard]

Another run where the GEFS control model went below -10 on the 850s.  At least 5 runs in a row now where it was in the -11 to -20 range.

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the GEFS.  This thing might still happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Deweydog]

Dissension in the ranks!

We didn’t see this in the lead up to #december2remember. Has to be a good/bad sign!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

34” here.  Would almost double my season total. 
 

[snow_wizard]

Nice!  Best GEFS run out of at least the last 5 runs on the 850s.

[RentonHill]

Lol CMCE says nothing to see here

[ShawniganLake]

Was almost nice enough today for a touch of spring fever.  47/35 with clear skies and no frost this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lol CMCE says nothing to see here

Thankfully it's the CMCE.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

People are going to have to see for themselves I guess.  Just mind boggling.

Live here for the past 5 years and say the same thing. You'll get plenty of sloppy seconds snow, but it will not get Arctic cold. Jan 2017 was the end of the road.

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Was almost nice enough today for a touch of spring fever.  47/35 with clear skies and no frost this morning. 

Different story here with 37/30.  Currently 32 with dense fog.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS ensembles a bit better. Nothing exciting. Not yet.

[snow_wizard]

This thing with the GEFS control model isn't something to just ignore.  Going into the December event it was consistently cold (although less so than this time) compared to the operational models.  This is at least 5 consecutive runs of -13 or lower 850s.  Not sure I've ever seen it that cold at this time frame.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

GFS ensembles a bit better. Nothing exciting. Not yet.

At least the trends are good right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

One interesting thing about the GEFS is the surface pressure gradients are NE with solidly below normal 850s.  Pretty legit cold.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

34” here.  Would almost double my season total. 
 

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the impressive King County inversion continues.  Currently 32 or below for many places with dense fog or low clouds.  Enumclaw continues to be the cold spot with 28.  I think the seepage from central WA is what allows this area to perform so well in these situations.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Slushy Inch]

So far, I like the look of the EURO, I think it will end up good. The trough southeast of Alaska is stronger than other models and there is less of a trough to the southwest of it to mess things up.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of oddities with this inversion.  Central WA is colder than the Basin and North Bend is colder than the passes.  Normally with offshore gradients the passes are cold with mixing / warming on the approaches to the passes.

[snow_wizard]

GEFS control drops to an insane -22 on this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Weiner Warrior]

4 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Wow, @KeVamgedonhas a new avatar. You are probably a lot more attractive than the average TWF user.

Yes, nothing better than beer, my bikini, and snow.

[RentonHill]

Back half of GEFS