PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Slushy Inch]

That's a disgusting mess, I don't think this run will end well.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So far, I like the look of the EURO, I think it will end up good. The trough southeast of Alaska is stronger than other models and there is less of a trough to the southwest of it to mess things up.

It has potential.  Looks like some of the same improvements vs the 12z as the GFS.

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[RentonHill]

GEFS 850s 

[MossMan]

Currently 33.1 degrees. And I’m too lazy to get off my recliner to check what my high temp was today. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That's a disgusting mess, I don't think this run will end well.

The big thing is to have high latitude blocking connected to the Pacific high, which it is here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles were rather lackluster. Operational was on the cold side. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The big thing is to have high latitude blocking connected to the Pacific high, which it is here.

Yeah, but it's not going to mean much if we can't get a strong organized trough to ride over it into our area.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Currently 33.1 degrees. And I’m too lazy to get off my recliner to check what my high temp was today. 

Aren’t you on your phone? I guess you said your wifi is poop so you prob don’t report to a site huh. 

[snow_wizard]

Classic looking block.  Let's see if it progresses eastward like on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very shallow inversion, we are definitely above it. 44/30 today, was down to 37 after sunset, but now up to 42.3. Maybe we'll cool down if the inversion deepens. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Classic looking block.  Let's see if it progresses eastward like on the GFS.

The trough that the GFS has east of Alaska isn't there, I don't think this will end well. But I hope I'm wrong.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Yeah, but it's not going to mean much if we can't get a strong organized trough to ride over it into our area.

This is all detail stuff at this point.  I think people are way more skeptical than is warranted.  As I've said....it's not like we've had that hard of a time getting good patterns in recent winters.  At this point I think it has a reasonable chance of happening.  Nothing more nothing less.

[Gradient Keeper]

I am 80% skeptical this cold pattern happens.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I am 80% skeptical this cold pattern happens.

80% chance it happens or doesn’t happen?

[TacomaWaWx]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile the impressive King County inversion continues.  Currently 32 or below for many places with dense fog or low clouds.  Enumclaw continues to be the cold spot with 28.  I think the seepage from central WA is what allows this area to perform so well in these situations.

It was 35 here a bit ago but 36 now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Close

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

80% chance it happens or doesn’t happen?

80% chance we do not move into a cold, arctic pattern. I guess we shall see....

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

80% chance we do not move into a cold, arctic pattern. I guess we shall see....

I think if we get any snow it’s going to be more of a marginal type.

[snow_wizard]

Far from terrible ECMWF run.  Some real promise there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

80% chance we do not move into a cold, arctic pattern. I guess we shall see....

I think what's bothering everyone is the tenuous bond between the Pacific High and the high latitude block.  The trends tonight have been undeniably good in that regard.

[Gradient Keeper]

Somewhat eager to see the EPS Day 7+

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

Hmmm what’s that I see??!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10+ here wouldn't be good at all with the ridge too far west heights would gradually rise and ridging to some degree develop over us. Hoping the EPS does NOT mirror this.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well even if February doesn’t work out we had December 2021. Basically the “little brother” to December 2008 and centered perfectly in the holidays. I still think we see atleast one type of winter weather event before this winters over though…early February is still not out of play just yet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well even if February doesn’t work out we had December 2021. Basically the “little brother” to December 2008 and centered perfectly in the holidays. I still think we see atleast one type of winter weather event before this winters over though…early February is still not out of play just yet. 

If December is all we get it will be a major disappointment. Literally nothing of interest outside that 10 day window. Astonishing actually. At least there is still time for that to change. 

[RentonHill]

Day 7

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If December is all we get it will be a major disappointment. Literally nothing of interest outside that 10 day window. Astonishing actually. At least there is still time for that to change. 

There’s still about a month left on the clock. I’m not feeling anything special next month but some type of winter event at the very least. 

[RentonHill]

Weather models so much faster here’s day 8/9

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 7

Better then OP EURO that's for sure.

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Day 10

Oh let's go! That's quite good!

[Deweydog]

Models will look quite different by Wednesday night.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge getting undercut..... Meh. I'm sticking to my 80% skepticism that this cold pattern happens.