PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Poulsbo Snowman]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we finished Dec with a +1F departure so yet another warmer than normal month. The cool shot with snow wasn't enough to save it.

At least we ended up with 11.13" of rain so almost +4" there so that's wonderful!!

There's a guy looking at things with the glass half full!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with an average of 36.8 and Bellingham was like 34 point something.  Incredible N to S gradient last month.  Coldest December IMBY since 2016.

The north/south gradient is only going to get worse in the years going forward. Eventually it'll be more regularly focused even further north until one day our access to Arctic air just...sort of ends.

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with an average of 36.8 and Bellingham was like 34 point something.  Incredible N to S gradient last month.  Coldest December IMBY since 2016.

Spokane ended up with a mean of 27.5°F. The first half was an absolute torch.

[Brennan]

A little disappointed we’re not coming out of this arctic blast with an overrunning event. From a 6* low to a transition to maritime air with no snowflakes isn’t that common here. The 90s were full of overrunning events. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

A little disappointed we’re not coming out of this arctic blast with an overrunning event. From a 6* low to a transition to maritime air with no snowflakes isn’t that common here. The 90s were full of overrunning events. 

I agree...

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The north/south gradient is only going to get worse in the years going forward. Eventually it'll be more regularly focused even further north until one day our access to Arctic air just...sort of ends.

The valley’s access to Arctic air has never changed. This event was purely a north/south regime both at the surface and aloft. The vast disparity between the Okanogan Valley and Spokane Valley was major evidence of this. This was mostly due to block placement and the inability of it to progress to a more positive tilt.

Yes, our air masses have overall moderated. But this has zero impact on the mechanisms for the entire valley to get cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Brennan said:

A little disappointed we’re not coming out of this arctic blast with an overrunning event. From a 6* low to a transition to maritime air with no snowflakes isn’t that common here. The 90s were full of overrunning events. 

Almost never happens anymore.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The valley’s access to Arctic air has never changed. This event was purely a north/south regime both at the surface and aloft. The vast disparity between the Okanogan Valley and Spokane Valley  was evidence major evidence of this. This was mostly due to block placement and the inability of it to progress to a more positive tilt.

Yes, our air masses have overall moderated overall. But this has zero impact on the mechanisms for the entire valley to get cold.

So is it just incredibly bad luck?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty sure Sunday night will be heavy rain, to much southerly flow ahead of the main event.  We'll see. 

[RentonHillTC]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Another thing people have here are heat cables for gutters to keep water flowing and to protect the gutters from being damaged.  

I put one of the cables on the more shaded side of our roof in twisp this fall and took off gutters since they seemingly made it worse to deal with and it’s so dry over there we weren’t too worried. TBD on how well the roof cable works but seems to be doing ok so far. Then again it’s been so cold and we haven’t had the house too warm so there’s been little ice generation on the roof. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So is it just incredibly bad luck?

Yeah pretty much. Compare Eugene or other places in the Willamette Valley's #'s to the Puget Sound region for December 2013 or February 2014. Those were much more impressive down here because it had more of a backdoor component. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah pretty much. Compare Eugene or other places in the Willamette Valley's #'s to the Puget Sound region for December 2013 or February 2014. Those were much more impressive down here because it had more of a backdoor component. 

I was gonna say, it feels like those types of events don't happen anymore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I was gonna say, it feels like those types of events don't happen anymore.

They've never been common. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They've never been common. 

Is it common to go 5+ years between them?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So is it just incredibly bad luck?

I wouldn’t say incredibly…

It became very apparent once we got within 96 hours or so that this was going to be a very north/south oriented event with very little east/west component. It’d be one thing if the big picture were more favorable and happenstance led to a ridiculous underperformance.

[nwsnow]

27.6F past noon and what little snow remains is still frozen and crusty. We might be done with snow here for the foreseeable future but I'll still take these cold and crisp days any time. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I was gonna say, it feels like those types of events don't happen anymore.

Prior to 2013-14, 2013-14 hadn’t happened yet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Prior to 2013-14, 2013-14 hadn’t happened yet.

Ok so different question, were backdoor-type airmasses more common before then? Was there ever a 5+ year stretch between them on record?

[RentonHillTC]

EPS

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS

Some dry weather will be nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Prior to 2013-14, 2013-14 hadn’t happened yet.

I can't think of any winter I have lived through that had two essentially top tier (At the surface) events like that. 

As for this current "event," it ended up being incredibly impressive from Tacoma-north, the Columbia Basin, NE Oregon, and I think Western Oregon overachieved on snowfall to an incredible extent. Sure we didn't see the bitterly cold temps, but given the pattern that verified we probably did about as well as we could have. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ok so different question, were backdoor-type airmasses more common before then? Was there ever a 5+ year stretch between them on record?

Not really. Things tend to randomize.

The valley did really well for snowfall/cold during the 2013-18 period and since then areas to the north and reestablished a more long term dominance. Ebb and flow in what is a slowly warming climate. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The retrogression signal is showing up on almost every long term ensemble mean... Remember, no whining if the next BLAST is DRY. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can't think of any winter I have lived through that had two essentially top tier (At the surface) events like that. 

As for this current "event," it ended up being incredibly impressive from Tacoma-north, the Columbia Basin, NE Oregon, and I think Western Oregon overachieved on snowfall to an incredible extent. Sure we didn't see the bitterly cold temps, but given the pattern that verified we probably did about as well as we could have. 

We have done fantastic for snow here since 2012. No issue there. Just seems the bitter cold (by our standards) has been lacking for a while.

[FroYoBro]

2022 is cold!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can't think of any winter I have lived through that had two essentially top tier (At the surface) events like that. 

As for this current "event," it ended up being incredibly impressive from Tacoma-north, the Columbia Basin, NE Oregon, and I think Western Oregon overachieved on snowfall to an incredible extent. Sure we didn't see the bitterly cold temps, but given the pattern that verified we probably did about as well as we could have. 

The onshore flow aspect of this was extremely impressive. Probably the coldest since at least January 2007. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We have done fantastic for snow here since 2012. No issue there. Just seems the bitter cold (by our standards) has been lacking for a while.

Dewey makes a good point. Historically the Puget Sound north, has seen much more cold/snow than the Willamette Valley, a lot of that is by virtue of latitude, we did really well comparatively for a few winters, but long term when things average out, you will get more snow/cold living in Bellingham than living in Eugene. 

November 2010, February 2011, January 2012 were all much more impressive Puget Sound-north, some of those events impacted PDX and the Willamette Valley, but were more muted down this way due to the fact of our more southern latitude and the penetration of the cold. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The onshore flow aspect of this was extremely impressive. Probably the coldest since at least January 2007. 

I never dreamed we could see 10" of snow all in onshore flow. Very impressive absolutely.

[Bryant]

Can tell tonight's system is looking like a no go just from the lack of snowfall maps being posted lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Can tell tonight's system is looking like a no go just from the lack of snowfall maps being posted lol

The GFS shifted the anafront action south quite a bit. 

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, Brennan said:

A little disappointed we’re not coming out of this arctic blast with an overrunning event. From a 6* low to a transition to maritime air with no snowflakes isn’t that common here. The 90s were full of overrunning events. 

That's about the only disappointing thing about this event for your area though.  This was a great one from about Tacoma north.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They've never been common. 

Just depends on the year. In some years they're much more common. 1948-49 or 1978-79 for example.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dewey makes a good point. Historically the Puget Sound north, has seen much more cold/snow than the Willamette Valley, a lot of that is by virtue of latitude, we did really well comparatively for a few winters, but long term when things average out, you will get more snow/cold living in Bellingham than living in Eugene. 

November 2010, February 2011, January 2012 were all much more impressive Puget Sound-north, some of those events impacted PDX and the Willamette Valley, but were more muted down this way due to the fact of our more southern latitude and the penetration of the cold. 

I would also add that it's only a matter of time before Eugene sees some serious Arctic air sweep in.  The days of that happening are not over.

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We have done fantastic for snow here since 2012. No issue there. Just seems the bitter cold (by our standards) has been lacking for a while.

Bitter cold there is dependent on pretty simple mechanisms… Heavy gorge influence to introduce cold, dry northerly winds in the valley and, for best results, snow cover. See December 2013. There is absolutely no evidence a repeat of that is any less possible now compared to then.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Just depends on the year. In some years they're much more common. 1948-49 or 1978-79 for example.

No doubt.  I would even argue that some decades have a lot more Arctic air invasions than others.  The 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s had good numbers.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Can tell tonight's system is looking like a no go just from the lack of snowfall maps being posted lol

I don't think tonight was ever really a thing.  Maybe up there, but I'm not even sure about that.

[Deweydog]

Hey, it’s January!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The retrogression signal is showing up on almost every long term ensemble mean... Remember, no whining if the next BLAST is DRY. 

A dry blast wouldn't be as bad now that we've had some decent snow, but it's always nice going into a cold wave with snow on the ground.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  I would even argue that some decades have a lot more Arctic air invasions than others.  The 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s had good numbers.

1919-1930 in particular had a huge number of deep, regional arctic events.  Many of them (December 1919, January 1922, New Years 1924, December 1926, January 1927, January 1930) were more backdoor in nature and really favored southern areas for snow and cold. 

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

2022 is cold!

One day down 364 to go!

[jakerepp]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One day down 364 to go!

Maybe Yellowstone will blow and we'll get a year long winter!

Oh well, actually I guess we'd all be dead.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1919-1930 in particular had a huge number of deep, regional arctic events.  Many of them (December 1919, January 1922, New Years 1924, December 1926, January 1927, January 1930) were more backdoor in nature and really favored southern areas for snow and cold. 

Very true, but January 1922 was pretty good up here too.  Then of course you had Feb 1923, Dec 1924, Dec 1927, and Jan /Feb 1929.  Great period!

As I've mentioned so many times 1921-22 and 1922-23 was a simply awesome pair of winters for the NW.  So many different blasts in all parts of the winter between the two.  Maybe an encore performance exactly 100 years later?

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 34 at home after a low of 20. We  will see if we can stay sub 40 today. 

[Prairiedog]

8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Maybe Yellowstone will blow and we'll get a year long winter!

Oh well, actually I guess we'd all be dead.

What would we do then without Beth Dutton saying all those encouraging words of encouragement to us in 2022?

[MossMan]

31.8. 

[Prairiedog]

One can hope. 

https://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/

[Acer Jake]

Wow, up to 32.7 and the dripathon has started.

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I had no idea either when we first bought our house.  Nor did I know about blowing out sprinklers in the fall.

There was a Seattle or Western Wa based architect who designed a few homes in a new development here and had no idea about snow slides or guards. So the snow slid from different parts of the roof to a place between the two roof lines and it was a disaster as all the snow slid there and there was no place for it to go.  Obvious to local roofers that the architect had no clue and didn't ask locals about the snow here.

Sounds about right for architects

[jakerepp]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

31.8. 

When were you last above freezing? Early Christmas afternoon or something?