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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's absolutely crazy how warm 30 degrees feels after what we just experienced.  8am today I was filling the tires back up on the truck and it was -10. Even a simple task like that becomes difficult.  

Thing I noticed when living over there during the relatively paltry cold snaps we had was that whatever you’re doing out in it just seems to drain your energy very quickly.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Thing I noticed when living over there during the relatively paltry cold snaps we had was that whatever you’re doing out in it just seems to drain your energy very quickly.

Very true and you learn little things along the way. I have a habit of threading off the valve stem cap on a tire and holding it in my mouth, well when it's ten below the moisture that's now on the cap freezes on the threads!!

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The amount of moisture coming in with this system is considerable.  Eventually it will need something beyond evaporative cooling to make it work.  In the early going it could easily be snow in areas that don't have their cold air ravaged by SE winds.

I get that in theory, but I've seen a ton of times over the last 42 years of life where a band from about Shoreline north never switches over, even in this scenarios. Maybe they get a few hours of rain snow mix before precip just ends and starts melting, but I can't help but feel like models might be overplaying the scour.

Then again, I was surprised to wake up to 33 degree snow the other morning so easily too, so anything is possible. 

I also don't see how there isn't at least a small chance of freezing rain, given the snowcover and low DPs. Maybe I have something to learn in this event though.

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41 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Some of the scenery over there was spectacular.  

20211231_121736.jpg

20211231_121729.jpg

Just a different world over there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Btw this is Mr Deweydog's old stomping grounds.

20220101_122847.jpg

Not quite as pretty as your place!  I love the areas that are lightly treed, but barren isn't pretty.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yes sir. 

I was thinking Omak.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The NAM 3km is blasting the cold air out of West King County way too easily tomorrow night.  No other model agrees with that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow Bellingham up to 38! 

I figured the models would be right about that.  Currently 29 here.  This is a case where it's always colder here than Bellingham.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Bellingham's tempature will be up and down and all over this week depending  on wind direction. 

Yup.  The models have been advertising some relapses up there.  Even this coming week is going to be considerably below normal overall.  Going to be a good month I think.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the outflow area up by Bellingham with no snow cover. Fascinating. 

ssm_depth.2022010118.0.800.450._13500.786._12995.1685.dem.shading.ilm.m.1.0.0.0.0.0.png

Weird bare spot WNW of Packwood too.  Total screw hole.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow. What happened to Bellingham?! RIP cold wave. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I figured the models would be right about that.  Currently 29 here.  This is a case where it's always colder here than Bellingham.

Still 31 here but 34 at bremerton.  Sometimes if the flow it just right we will avoid the strong south wind and the cold air will collect and build as you get closer to the Olympics.  So far just a light breeze here.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

18z ECMWF is a bit more promising for snow tomorrow night.  A tad colder and heavier with the precip.

Curious about any cold being pulled this far West.  I think we are all rain tomorrow.  Maybe some cold air damming on the Canal, but most of Kitsap will be rain.  Had to happen someday. 😉

It's been a great week of cold.

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NAM 3km is blasting the cold air out of West King County way too easily tomorrow night.  No other model agrees with that.

At what level?   The ECMWF shows the cold is retreating now and not tomorrow night.   It actually gets colder by Monday morning.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1641060000-1641081600-1641211200-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. What happened to Bellingham?! RIP cold wave. 

SE wind.  I'll be interested to see if Lynden holds onto the cold or not.  So far they are.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Curious about any cold being pulled this far West.  I think we are all rain tomorrow.  Maybe some cold air damming on the Canal, but most of Kitsap will be rain.  Had to happen someday. 😉

It's been a great week of cold.

I wouldn't rule out snow where you are.  At any rate snow levels get low again Monday night through early Thursday.  Plenty of chances.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At what level?   The ECMWF shows the cold is retreating now and not tomorrow night.   It actually gets colder by Monday morning.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1641060000-1641081600-1641211200-10.gif

I was mostly referring to the surface.  Even if it's just rain it will be colder than that model was showing tomorrow night.  The ECMWF was actually cold enough for some snow in this area tomorrow night.  Good chances Monday and Tuesday nights.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At what level?   The ECMWF shows the cold is retreating now and not tomorrow night.   It actually gets colder by Monday morning.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1641060000-1641081600-1641211200-10.gif

Once FROPA occurs Monday cold air moves back in. Hard to imagine anything other than widespread rain before that except in favored localities. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I was mostly referring to the surface.  Even if it's just rain it will be colder than that model was showing tomorrow night.  The ECMWF was actually cold enough for some snow in this area tomorrow night.  Good chances Monday and Tuesday nights.

Yeah... 925 temps are well below zero again on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

I'm surprised 1985 wasn't better.  I had a string of 12 days where I was living at that time.  Still can't get over that event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SE wind.  I'll be interested to see if Lynden holds onto the cold or not.  So far they are.

Yup. Bellingham is right on the water, and there is nothing to the north getting in the way of a south wind cutting through. When the wind shifts, their cold snaps can end in a hurry.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once FROPA occurs Monday cold air moves back in. Hard to imagine anything other than widespread rain before that except in favored localities. 

With such heavy intensity and so much cold still hanging around I bet some places will have snow tomorrow night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wouldn't rule out snow where you are.  At any rate snow levels get low again Monday night through early Thursday.  Plenty of chances.

The way I look at it is, it just depends on the strength of the low, and how bad it wants to pull some seepage through the gaps.  I don't really think the low level cold we have right now is going to make any difference this time.  We are already in full South wind mode.  It will be dependent on NEW cold air.

Thoughts?

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