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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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Conditions are NOT looking up good for snow at BFI or SEA. I still have serious doubts that this could produce any meaningful accumulations for Seattle metroimage.thumb.png.49b604ab0704a755244b34168ff197b4.png area

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

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4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Winds just got crazy in Enumclaw... huge gusts.

You're right on the east wind / south wind contact zone.  I hope it stays south of here.  Want to preserve my cold daily average, and of course increase my snow chances.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hard to track things in the West with so much unfolding in the East. But I'm glad to see reports of thundersnow on the Kitsap Peninsula where temperatures are in the low to mid 30s. Definitely too warm in the Seattle metro and rates probably won't be enough to overcome the warm air advection. Those above 500' in the metro may see a period of snow or rain/snow mix before changing over to rain.

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well well, look who's starting to change their tune...

image.png

OMG. 

Like it hasn't been well advertised.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

Conditions are NOT looking up good for snow at BFI or SEA. I still have serious doubts that this could produce any meaningful accumulations for Seattle metroimage.thumb.png.49b604ab0704a755244b34168ff197b4.png area

This is still on track. The GFS shows temperatures dropping from 37 to 31 between now and 4 AM at Boing Field. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-02 at 7.00.29 PM.png

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Just now, joelgombiner said:

This is still on track. The GFS shows temperatures dropping from 37 to 31 between now and 4 AM at Boing Field. 

Screen Shot 2022-01-02 at 7.00.29 PM.png

I also highly doubt it will get below freezing for Seattle area tonight, GFS is overdoing temps and snow amounts tonight.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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West coast warm finger up to here. Glad we got the snow earlier because this is really boring.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Saw thundersnow back in January 2017 and February 2019. So fun when it does happen!

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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39.0 now. Been bouncing around a bit, but has been dropping steadily over the past 30 minutes since the rain arrived. Any changeover here will not be until well after midnight. Mesoscale models pretty insistent on a major foothills snow event. NWS is saying 18" above 2000', but only 1-3" down here at 1600'. We'll see, average of the Hrrr, 3K Nam, HRW, FV3 is about 12" using the Kuchera method, which makes sense because ratios will definitely be lower than 10:1, probably more like 6:1 at best.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, gusky said:

I also highly doubt it will get below freezing for Seattle area tonight, GFS is overdoing temps and snow amounts tonight.

This is a pretty weird situation though.  We'll see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Langley Hill radar shows a lot more convective stuff coming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wal Mart is not onboard. 

A8B1C154-5BBB-4DBE-AD90-6CC7963DF2B1.jpeg

My brother's old boss gave him and his wife kayaks for their wedding a few years back, they used them a few times, but decided they didn't need them after they had their baby and gave them to me this past September. SCORE!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Hard to track things in the West with so much unfolding in the East. But I'm glad to see reports of thundersnow on the Kitsap Peninsula where temperatures are in the low to mid 30s. Definitely too warm in the Seattle metro and rates probably won't be enough to overcome the warm air advection. Those above 500' in the metro may see a period of snow or rain/snow mix before changing over to rain.

Agreed, DPs are not really low enough to sufficiently cool down the air in heavy precip. You're thinking no accumulation at all for Seattle metro? I was thinking an inch or so is still possible later.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Convection during an east wind outflow event.  Never seen that before.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, gusky said:

I also highly doubt it will get below freezing for Seattle area tonight, GFS is overdoing temps and snow amounts tonight.

Makes me laugh when people just chose to outright not believe the models because they think they know better

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24 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

OH MY 

image.thumb.png.9435e4d9e5e3fdc6d564ca9bc225d9ee.png

That’s some serious bright banding.

It’s snowin’ upstairs.

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

Agreed, DPs are not really low enough to sufficiently cool down the air in heavy precip. You're thinking no accumulation at all for Seattle metro? I was thinking an inch or so is still possible later.

We have falling 850s and 925s through the night on top of east wind cooling effect.  Decent chances.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Bryant said:

Makes me laugh when people just chose to outright not believe the models because they think they know better

GFS is pretty much the ONLY model predicting sub freezing temps... not claiming to have unique knowledge, I'm quite new to meteorology, but I'm basing this off of patterns that have been observed for a long time about the GFS.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Convection during an east wind outflow event.  Never seen that before.

We had thundersnow with a roaring east wind during the big event in February 2019.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We have falling 850s and 925s through the night on top of east wind cooling effect.  Decent chances.

True, and I certainly hope that it's enough to drive the snow level down sufficiently. I doubt it, but I definitely want it.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

GFS is pretty much the ONLY model predicting sub freezing temps... not claiming to have unique knowledge, I'm quite new to meteorology, but I'm basing this off of patterns that have been observed for a long time about the GFS.

Will probably see a mix at best for most of the Central Puget Sound.

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3 minutes ago, gusky said:

Agreed, DPs are not really low enough to sufficiently cool down the air in heavy precip. You're thinking no accumulation at all for Seattle metro? I was thinking an inch or so is still possible later.

This isn’t an evaporative cooling based event so the high DP’s aren’t really an issue. Still super borderline no matter what but that isn’t where our cooling would come from.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Makes me laugh when people just chose to outright not believe the models because they think they know better

Indeed.  There are a lot of moving parts to this.  Unlike anything I've seen quite frankly.  Not your typical Seattle area warmup.  In fact models show it may not top 40 after this evening until Thursday.  Some places didn't even make 40 today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had thundersnow with a roaring east wind during the big event in February 2019.

I was not aware of that.  Incredible event out your way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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.26" rain in the last hour. Temp dropping steadily since 5:45 or so.

Just looked outside and heavy rain with some very wet flakes mixed in.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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We've dropped 3 degrees in an hour with 0.20" of precipitation here in North Seattle. This is vertical advection, with heavy precipitation dragging down cold air from higher levels. The GFS shows our wind swinging around to the SE overnight, which should help to bring in some cold air from the side as well :). Combine the two effects and we could get snow. 

The air is mostly saturated now so there's not much evaporative cooling going on. 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This isn’t an evaporative cooling based event so the high DP’s aren’t really an issue. Still super borderline no matter what but that isn’t where our cooling would come from.

I still think some aspects of this are like what happened in Portland a couple of weeks ago.  Snowed due to heavy precip rates with VERY marginal mid level temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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