Been saying this for awhile. 2024 will probably be the hottest summer on record for the lower-48. All forcing components are lining up in the worst way possible.
NOAA has been having a rough time lately. Horrible busts last winter on both the seasonal and subseasonal scales. Idk what their methodology is but it’s been failing them since the niño established.
IIRC they rely heavily on the IRI which is notoriously bad when seasonal/LF forcing components destructively interfere w/ canonical EOFs (example: strong niño in tandem with -PMM).
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Posted by MR.SNOWMIZER,
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