PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[TacomaWaWx]

Getting a bit windier now. Feels very warm outside compared to the last few days. Definitely still think hitting 2” of rain today is possible. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Getting a bit windier now. Feels very warm outside compared to the last few days. Definitely still think hitting 2” of rain today is possible. 

2" .....

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They definitely happened in the past, but the intensity and frequency of all these AR's reeks of climate change... 

[https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023586]

Much of the focus of recent research has been on the response of precipitation in warming projections. Few studies have focused on the explicit response of ARs, as intense moisture transport events, to warming. Dettinger [2011] was the first to investigate this topic using an ensemble of projections from seven global climate models used in the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report. Comparing historical simulations to end of the century warming projections, he found an increase in moisture transport and an increase in the number of years with many ARs. Investigation was furthered by use of data from CMIP5 in Warner et al. [2015]. They identified ARs using the 99th percentile of moisture transport along a transect just off the coast of North America in 30 years of historical simulations and RCP 8.5 projections from 10 different models. Similar to the findings in Dettinger[2011], Warner et al. [2015] found a robust increase in moisture transport within ARs, but little change in lower level winds. While focused on the eastern North Atlantic, Lavers et al.[2013] found similar increases in AR intensity as Dettinger [2011] and Warner et al. [2015] using an ensemble of five models participating in CMIP5 and a different method to identify ARs.

Hard disagree here.

And FWIW, RCP8.5 has absolutely no value at this point in time. Should never be used, period.

[TT-SEA]

Worth mentioning that the 18Z ECMWF showed Randy getting more snow... this mostly falls on Saturday morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

2" .....

Pretty crazy you guys actually might get to 6” or more possibly by midnight.  We’ve had about 2.10” in the last 24 hours here. I’d bet your 24 hour total is already over 6”. 

[Kuna_Idaho_Dude]

1 hour ago, Prairiedog said:

Great people there.  After we'd spend the day snowshoeing up on the ridge, we'd go inner tubing down that giant hill.  Their daughter would snowmobile down and tow us back up.  Food was to die for.  Never ate so much in my life.  One of the coolest places I've stayed.  Imagine waking up every morning and looking right at the Enchantments. 

On New Years Eve the locals shot off about two hrs of fireworks and the big boomers would echo far down the canyon towards town.  Except for Longbeach for the 4th, it was the best fireworks I've been around, esp in that setting. 

Yes, it's spendy but it was worth every penny. 

Nice, yeah we always talked about going again in the winter, then we moved out of state. Maybe someday!

[bainbridgekid]

BLI finally popped up above freezing at 7 PM after a nice little 50 hour sub freezing streak.

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

My friend taking her dogs for their morning walk. They live in Ellensburg. That is a 35lb Border Collie. 

He's loving it.

[GHweatherChris]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty crazy you guys actually might get to 6” or more possibly by midnight.  We’ve had about 2.10” in the last 24 hours here. I’d bet your 24 hour total is already over 6”. 

24 hour total is about 6.5", give or take.  At 5.55" now just for today.

[snow drift]

Still 31 with freezing rain. I pity the people that live on the Southhill or Northside of Spokane. 

[joelgombiner]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard disagree here.

And FWIW, RCP8.5 has absolutely no value at this point in time. Should never be used, period.

Do you think AR frequency and/or intensity will decrease or stay the same under warming?  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I see two options for my neighborhood for the next 24 hours:

Option 1: Heavy rain picks up again and, with the help of warm temps and wind, is sufficient to melt a lot of the heavy snow on the mountain beside me, resulting in excessive runoff and neighborhood homes flooding.

Option 2: Either lighter rains prevail or cooler temps or the snow can soak up more rain on the mountain so there isn’t excessive short term runoff, and we see longer duration melt over the next several days. 

I want Option 2 to be true, but I just don’t know…

Boy did the warmup arrive in an instant. 44°F and 4.3” of rain. 

I think the worst of the rain is over... and the ridge sheds water very quickly due to its steepness.      

This is the 18Z ECMWF total precip between 10 p.m. tonight and 10 p.m. tomorrow night.    Maybe only another inch.    Colder air aloft arrives by noon tomorrow... but it also shows a roaring SW wind in our area all day tomorrow with a c-zone forming to the north and then slowly moving farther north on Friday night.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Poor Eugene.

Only 0.42” here today. We had 1”+ the past 3 days though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My buddy in Japan had his first snow of the winter today. Or tomorrow... He lives about an hour outside Tokyo. 

[smerfylicious]

Temp just peaked here at 41.5, dripped back below 40 now. 3.75" of rain. Oh and no having to worry about pass traffic this weekend!!! Woooo!!!

[MossMan]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Worth mentioning that the 18Z ECMWF showed Randy getting more snow... this mostly falls on Saturday morning.

Oh my! And I believe the EURO snow map for me last night was pretty dead on. 

[MossMan]

Just walked the property, lots of water but everything seems to be draining to it’s appropriate places. Oh and here comes the wind! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Rains lightened up the last 30 minutes…up to 1.75”. Still got close to 4 hours to get to 2”. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Not much snow melt here today, in spite of the warmer temperatures and rain. I think it's mostly down to the complete lack of wind. Currently a foggy 41F, seems to be cooling down quick.

[plainguy]

24 Hour rainfall 5.79". Current wind S30 G47.  Since midnight 4.64".

Thank God I'm built on a sand dune, it perks the water nicely.

[Cloud]

The last patches of our snow melted off today. Now it's just rain... had initially hoped for we go into a dry period and some inversion but nope. Back to what we've been dealing with for most of the fall. Extremely wet season. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

The last patches of our snow melted off today. Now it's just rain... had initially hoped for we go into a dry period and some inversion but nope. Back to what we've been dealing with for most of the fall. Extremely wet season. 

Gfs and euro have been hinting at drier weather. Would’ve been nice to get some dry weather instead of 2 ARs and melt all the snow to start January…but we we had some snow on the ground from December 26th-January 5th pretty decent stretch. 

[Blizzard777]

2.00” ️ Today 

Current rain rate 0.00

48*

[MossMan]

Still solid snow cover here but at 46 degrees and it being very windy I do not expect it to last much longer. I will have a lot of dog poop to scoop soon. 

[Phishy Wx]

wow its nasty.  29 with FZRN.  probably approaching .2" of ice.  wife got home and car is encased in an ice shell.  warm air is taking its time getting here at least at the surface.  wind is NNE currently

[gusky]

1.53" of rain in the past 24hrs

[Phishy Wx]

our 12"+ snowpack is now encased in an ice shell.  Thinking that may limit some melting tomorrow  even with the temps approaching 40 and the 40-50mph winds.  hoping for no power outages.

[Phishy Wx]

in the last 10 min the wind switched from NNE to SW and the temp jumped from 29 to 35.  that was crazy fast.  wow

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

in the last 10 min the wind switched from NNE to SW and the temp jumped from 29 to 35.  that was crazy fast.  wow

Wow, that's a huge jump! Biggest jump I experienced in the last few weeks was 4F in about 10min with a decent cell

[GoldenEars]

Everything but the roads are covered in 1/8th of an inch of ice with moderate rain coming down. Power has been out for almost two hours now and the outage map is exploding in the Fraser Valley. 

[joelgombiner]

6 minutes ago, GoldenEars said:

Everything but the roads are covered in 1/8th of an inch of ice with moderate rain coming down. Power has been out for almost two hours now and the outage map is exploding in the Fraser Valley. 

B.C. just can't catch a break... 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like the temp battle isn't quite settled in my neighborhood

 

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Crazy it’s still dumping snow in Leavenworth. I can’t stop checking the live cams. Just incredible.

[TacomaWaWx]

1.81” now. Radar shows strong returns but it’s just been light-moderate the last couple hours. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Crazy it’s still dumping snow in Leavenworth. I can’t stop checking the live cams. Just incredible.

Just a wee bit insane...

 

[Phil]

Man did I miss this. So much better than palm trees and sunshine. 

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy rain and heavy wind!!

Getting to close to 6" for the day, 5.93" now, come on!!

[GoldenEars]

26 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

B.C. just can't catch a break... 

It's been rough for sure. Ice is finally starting to melt now as it warms and around 90 outages got fixed. Would have been an interesting night if the cold had stayed later.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF still on board for some more Randy snow...