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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It actually means a one foot square of the entire column of snow depth.  

Okay, so not actually square foot then. How exactly did you calculate that?

If there was 4 feet of snow on the ground, that would therefore weigh 52/4 (13lbs) per cubic foot. Or roughly a 4.5 to 1 snow to liquid ratio.

In other words, approximately 10.67” of liquid equivalent must have fallen in 3 days. I suspect that is still too high.

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52 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

So if you were to draw it up for a perfect snow situation. Accumulation of a foot or more throughout the the Puget Sound area. Then obviously, all the players were there on steroids. If you notice though, the time elapsed (1880-1916-1950) is roughly 34 to 36 years. So we should have had another "epic" event sometime in the 80's or 90's and that has not happened. We have had some large snows in the meantime (85-96-2008). But nothing has approached those singular events. The bigger question is why? Just given the law of averages it should have happened by now. Even if you count 1968 as a large region-wide snow event, another history making storm should have occurred since then. On can only hope.

You would need a MUCH longer period of time (thousands of years) to calculate the average return frequency of such events, even if the climate system was perfectly stable over said time interval.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You would need a MUCH longer period of time (thousands of years) to calculate the average return frequency of such events, even if the climate system was perfectly stable over said time interval.

 

No shite Sherlock. Nobody here is trying to publish an academic paper

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Looks like it might freeze tonight.  A lot of clearing and 40 right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know nothing exciting is going on weather wise when we have discussions like today.

I don't think it will be long before the models are onto something again.  Usually when the EPS looks so much better than the GFS suite of models it doesn't take long.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GEFS extended looked pretty good today by late January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Ok, so that's quite the dilemma. Their trying to protect the water supply, but on the flip side it impacts everyone and they struggle to get on with daily life. They need to take a look at what Snoqualmie does. I think it's in Montana where they use beet juice to treat the roads. Whatever it is, it's natural.

Yeah I got up onto the Wilderness Rim area today. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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46 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You know nothing exciting is going on weather wise when we have discussions like today.

I really only got very into weather about a year ago, so I'm just watching you guys talk about previous events and great years with no idea what happened😂

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEFS extended looked pretty good today by late January.

Things are looking good at this time for late January. Even Michael Snyder mentioned that in his update again today. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, SnowHawks said:

So if you were to draw it up for a perfect snow situation. Accumulation of a foot or more throughout the the Puget Sound area. Then obviously, all the players were there on steroids. If you notice though, the time elapsed (1880-1916-1950) is roughly 34 to 36 years. So we should have had another "epic" event sometime in the 80's or 90's and that has not happened. We have had some large snows in the meantime (85-96-2008). But nothing has approached those singular events. The bigger question is why? Just given the law of averages it should have happened by now. Even if you count 1968 as a large region-wide snow event, another history making storm should have occurred since then. On can only hope.

December 1996 was definitely the closest, if it had just happened a bit further south. For northern WA and southern BC, it was a historically great snow event.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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8 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

How is someone going to prove something like that.   I don’t think people were taking notes on the precise measuring details in 1880. They were probably trying to survive without having their roof fall on their heads. 🙄 

I dunno, I'll bet there was somebody back in 1880 who was sitting there looking at all of that snow thinking....."ya know, I'll bet that in 2022 I'll be some dude who doesn't even live in the PNW is going to call BS on these snow totals, so we had better take very precise measurements and document the location of these measurements very precisely"

 

Hey Cletus, bust out the surveying gear, we need to nail down the locations where we are taking measurements.

 

Unfortunately for @Phil and the team who so diligently took accurate measurements of the snow and the precise location of those measurements, all of the records were lost in the great Seattle fire of 1889.  D**n that overturned glue pot at the carpentry shop!!!

 

 

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So what February redux would everyone like to see…

I would like a 2019 or 1989 to start off the month with a 2011 or 2018 at the end of the month. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

One thing I am sure noticing now that it has warmed up is the roads did not like the weather of the last few weeks. Potholes all over. Was getting quite bad on Hwy 2 I noticed but really everywhere. I remember that happening in 1990 and 2008 as well. 

Welcome to my world. Spokane is the pothole capital of the world. They spring up like zits on a teenager's face. I hate those suckers.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think I'll do an in depth look at January 1880 during the more "boring" part of the year.  It really is fascinating and I have scraped a lot of data together over the years.  That includes some of the consequences of the event.  There is even a map that was drawn at the time showing all of the low tracks that month.  The two that nailed Seattle are very obvious.

It would be curious to figure out if there were any huge events...volcanic eruptions, meteors (like Tunguska) or a super crazy hurricane season in the time leading up to this insane event, or if the area just won the snowfall lottery.

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11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody else having stocking issues at the local store?

B7E999BC-F347-45CC-90F2-BE53C54D3D1F.jpeg

I've seen this all over from Newcastle to Mill Creek. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

December 1996 was definitely the closest, if it had just happened a bit further south. For northern WA and southern BC, it was a historically great snow event.

So much snow for a 10hr period!! 

5C6C7127-2E50-4510-B2DA-3BCC4A949CCA.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Geos said:

I've seen this all over from Newcastle to Mill Creek. 

Same up here. Lots of empty shelves. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So much snow for a 10hr period!! 

5C6C7127-2E50-4510-B2DA-3BCC4A949CCA.jpeg

 

 

10 hours?  Do you know for sure?  What do you have in the way of precise records and other documentation do you have?  Did you use timepieces set to the national atomic clock?  Was it all notarized? 

 

@Phil will need this verification.

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what February redux would everyone like to see…

I would like a 2019 or 1989 to start off the month with a 2011 or 2018 at the end of the month. 

2010.

But I’m probably alone on that one. :lol: 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Same up here. Lots of empty shelves. 

And I found out North Bend was the same today. Even some of the pet stores are low on some things. It's a region wide issue. I've got a package that has been stuck in Wenatchee for 2 days!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

 

10 hours?  Do you know for sure?  What do you have in the way of precise records and other documentation do you have?  Did you use timepieces set to the national atomic clock?  Was it all notarized? 

 

@Phil will need this verification.

Well I remember looking out the window about every 3 minutes from about 6pm on the evening of the 28th until it started at about 8pm. Then I looked out the window every 2 minutes for the rest of the night basically haha! Heavy snow all the way until it turned to a rain/snow mix just after 8am on the 29th! I took that picture of my ElCamino and about 10am after the melt-a-thon started, it was even more impressive at day break that morning. Then we had to rush over to the family lake house and shovel the then flat roof off before it collapsed like so many other flat roofs were by noon of that day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Glad you got the shot…..noticed it when taking out the garbage.  Kind of a deer in headlight moment for me!  

Cat GIF

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I remember looking out the window about every 3 minutes from about 6pm on the evening of the 28th until it started at about 8pm. Then I looked out the window every 2 minutes for the rest of the night basically haha! Heavy snow all the way until it turned to a rain/snow mix just after 8am on the 29th! I took that picture of my ElCamino and about 10am after the melt-a-thon started, it was even more impressive at day break that morning. Then we had to rush over to the family lake house and shovel the then flat roof off before it collapsed like so many other flat roofs were by noon of that day. 

That doesn’t sound like it’s going to pass the @Phil test so…. sorry, it didn’t happen!  😁

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That doesn’t sound like it’s going to pass the @Phil test so…. sorry, it didn’t happen!  😁

The best part of that event was going from about 36 degrees at about 2pm down to 16 degrees by 7pm right before the snow started. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  Just found the notation.  The snow in Seattle weighted an insane 52 pounds per square foot in January 1880.  That's what I used to verify the amount of water equivalent the snow had.  As I motioned before they calculated the weight based on how low a ship anchored in Eliott Bay sank in the water from the weight of the snow.  Pretty D**n clever.

Once again it was the most water to ever fall from the sky in Seattle in 3 days and it was all in the form of snow!

It is impossible to have a weight of a square foot, because that is literally 2 dimensional.  Not doubting how amazing the event was, but math 101 says that there are no weights for square feet.

There has to be a depth with it.  A square foot of snow 8 feet deep?  1 foot?  They would know how much weight it would require to have the ship sink that much, then they divided it by however many square feet the surface of the ship was, and then figured out how much weight the snow added to each square foot of the ship.

But that doesn't tell you how deep the snow is.  

When calculating weight for snow on a roof (I have researched this the last few days for obvious reasons), rule of thumb is light fluffy snow weighs about 7# per SF, and wet snow about 20# per SF.  So if the average snow is say 15 pounds per square feet, 3.5 feet would be about 51# per square feet.  

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36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what February redux would everyone like to see…

I would like a 2019 or 1989 to start off the month with a 2011 or 2018 at the end of the month. 

2019 would satisfy any snow lover, but was mostly a stable and steady snowfall where I was. 2011/2012 had some blizzardy snow, real wind events and a few of them dumped more at a quicker pace. 

That makes me wonder how much bigger '19 would have been if I had a couple blizzards.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

2019 would satisfy any snow lover, but was mostly a stable and steady snowfall where I was. 2011/2012 had some blizzardy snow, real wind events and a few of them dumped more at a quicker pace. 

That makes me wonder how much bigger '19 would have been if I had a couple blizzards.

Actually what would make it perfect would be a late January 1996 followed by a February 2019 followed by a February 2018 reduxeseses 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It is impossible to have a weight of a square foot, because that is literally 2 dimensional.  Not doubting how amazing the event was, but math 101 says that there are no weights for square feet.

There has to be a depth with it.  A square foot of snow 8 feet deep?  1 foot?  They would know how much weight it would require to have the ship sink that much, then they divided it by however many square feet the surface of the ship was, and then figured out how much weight the snow added to each square foot of the ship.

But that doesn't tell you how deep the snow is.  

When calculating weight for snow on a roof (I have researched this the last few days for obvious reasons), rule of thumb is light fluffy snow weighs about 7# per SF, and wet snow about 20# per SF.  So if the average snow is say 15 pounds per square feet, 3.5 feet would be about 51# per square feet.  

Soooo doesn’t this generally support what jim is saying? They knew the square footage of ship surface. They knew the displacement and change in water height, so they knew how much water equivalent was there? And all our “anecdotal” measurements of what total snow depth would have been rhyme with what you say to be the average snow volume would lead to? The guys on the ship didn’t say how deep it was just how much water had fallen, right @snow_wizard?

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Today’s summary. 
 

Phil is not on board for the 1880 event. 

But I’m not overboard either. 😬

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