PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[umadbro]

40 minutes ago, iFred said:

So, Erik Holm does have his own meme apparently.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

“Urbanization doesn’t affect temperature”.

— @1000'NorthBend

I paraphrased that correctly, right?

PDX is a well known heat island. I used to live in Hillsboro which is a part of the Portland Metro area, they'd hit freezing in October yet PDX somehow won't until December. That happened in 2008 and, this year?

Portland recently even had a summer where the average high was exactly normal - yet strangely had a record # of 60 degree lows. The mean came out warm only because of the lows. 

[RentonHill]

EPS caved, btw. Mark down an unrealized plus 1 for GEFS. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Hope from the EPS control after the 20th 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS caved, btw. Mark down an unrealized plus 1 for GEFS. 

Actually caved is too strong. Just agrees that there will be a warmer stretch before but still has cold members at the end

[Phil]

All ensemble suites look the same @ 500mb by D15.

Pretty remarkable.

[Deweydog]

Only three weeks until February!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only three weeks until February!

First week of February has a shot. 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First week of February has a shot. 

Hopefully it was a booster! Ok that’s my one COVID post #fail #sorry

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It seems like the number of fights has picked up since a certain poster got more active. I think he prods people, they react, he responds, and a little fight starts. Kind of tiring TBH. 

How does he do that?

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First week of February has a shot. 

I’m not feeling it, but that doesn’t mean much.

On a related note, since it doesn’t seem to be getting much play this year, the PV looks pretty relentless for the foreseeable future.

[Timmy Supercell]

Even though Summer 2021 came out warmest throughout the pacific northwest, 2015 as an overall year still stands as a ridiculous one. I'm pretty sure 2015 was the last time Jan-Feb-Mar all torched consecutively at KLMT. June 2015 and July 2014 both respectively still hold their records as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not feeling it, but that doesn’t mean much.

On a related note, since it doesn’t seem to be getting much play this year, the PV looks pretty relentless for the foreseeable future.

Honestly I'm not really feeling it either, but that's our shot. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not feeling it, but that doesn’t mean much.

On a related note, since it doesn’t seem to be getting much play this year, the PV looks pretty relentless for the foreseeable future.

No SSW?? Parker says bring on summer 

[smerfylicious]

You ever look at the snow and go...hey, those aren't my steps in my back yard?

Someone snuck around last night to look into our windows, maybe case for a burglary? Idk. But just made an emergency run for security lights. 

Also how dare he introduce more melt points in my snow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Since I’m still sick and really bored of watching tv and playing video games…decided to do a statistical overview of 2021. Rainfall, positive/negative monthly temp anomalies and snowfall. 

JAN 9.79” +1.7

FEB 5.27” -1.6 snow-15.5”

MAR 2.68” -1.0

APR 1.16” +2.7

MAY 1.72” -0.3

JUN 2.38” +4.0

JUL 0.00” +1.7

AUG 0.08” +1.2

SEP 4.06” -0.1

OCT 5.43” -0.7

NOV 9.72” +2.2

DEC 4.62” -2.1 snow-11.0”

Finished 2021 with 46.91” of rainfall, 26.5” of snowfall. Had 5 +90 days and 6 sub freezing highs. Set tons of records in terms of heat, cold and snowfall. 
 

Noteable stats (records 2005-2022)

All time record high temp-106

All time record high min-71

2nd place all time for +90 days-5

2nd warmest June-64.5 degrees

2nd place +80 days-35

All time record low max temp-24

Most subfreezing highs in a year on record-6

Most measurable snowfall days in a year-13

2nd snowiest December on record-11.0”

3rd and 4th snowiest months on record FEB-15.5” DEC-11.0”

Snowiest year on record-26.5”

Driest APR on record-1.16”

 

If you need any food or medicine, lmk and I’ll drop it off for you bro

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not feeling it, but that doesn’t mean much.

On a related note, since it doesn’t seem to be getting much play this year, the PV looks pretty relentless for the foreseeable future.

It does look that way.

Was hoping someone else would bring it up, to avoid being labeled a prodding troll for the umpteenth time.  

[gusky]

I'm sure that arguing about each other's knowledge will cement your superiority in forecasting ability.

Y'all, the great thing about this forum is the collective skill level. Everybody has something to add. Some people will know more in one area than another, and vice versa. Stop arguing about who's the most accurate.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

You ever look at the snow and go...hey, those aren't my steps in my back yard?

Someone snuck around last night to look into our windows, maybe case for a burglary? Idk. But just made an emergency run for security lights. 

Also how dare he introduce more melt points in my snow.

Snow is a great record keeper of activity... both animals and people.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

It does look that way.

Was hoping someone else would bring it up, to avoid being labeled a prodding troll for the umpteenth time.  

Well at least we had a week and a half of winter before it was time to cancel it. 

[gusky]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

You ever look at the snow and go...hey, those aren't my steps in my back yard?

Someone snuck around last night to look into our windows, maybe case for a burglary? Idk. But just made an emergency run for security lights. 

Also how dare he introduce more melt points in my snow.

That's creepy. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

 

[jakerepp]

27 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

You ever look at the snow and go...hey, those aren't my steps in my back yard?

Someone snuck around last night to look into our windows, maybe case for a burglary? Idk. But just made an emergency run for security lights. 

Also how dare he introduce more melt points in my snow.

Set up booby traps!

[gusky]

Cliff's latest post. Seems like the science is pretty good, and he does a decent job at addressing BOTH sides of climate change, not just how climate change WON'T affect a certain issue. My one problem with it is the aggressive name calling. He literally names specific reporters and makes fun of them. Not productive in any way.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/does-massive-cascade-snowpack-mean-we.html

[Snownerd3000]

11 minutes ago, gusky said:

 

[Meatyorologist]

Warning, stat dump:

I would kill for a 1955 warm season repeat. Just perfect all around. Most days in the 60s, lows cooling into the 40s. Occasional rain, occasional days in the 80s. A day or two above 90.

Here's how the "warm season" (months where strong heatwaves can occur, Apr-Oct) went (relative to 1991-2020 averages):

April: -6.7°F/+0.46". 3 freezes. Max temp 70°F. Min temp of 31°F on the 5th + 28th! Spits of onshore snow mid month; nothing measurable, just nighttime traces w/ lows in the low 30s. Coldest April on record.

May: -6.8°F/+0.07". Max temp 70°F. Min temp 38°F on four days early in the month. Only six lows above 45°F and two in the 50s.

June: -4.0°F/-0.18". Max temp 96°F on the 9th as part of a sharp two day heat wave; the hottest of the summer and an extreme outlier as the 5th through 12th went 60/71/74/85/96/75/74/63. Min temp 43°F. 22 highs below 70°F, 4 below 60°F.

July: -7.1°F(!)/+1.50". Max temp 82°F. Min temp 45°F. Only two days in the 80s, each falling consecutively on the 13th and 14th as 80/82. 19 days below 70°F! 59°F on the 3rd. Eight straight days with precipitation to finish the month. Six days at least 10°F below average. Coldest July on record.

August: -6.5°F/-0.80". Max temp 87°F. Min temp 44°F. Two highs in the 80s. 13 days below 70°F. A consistently chilly month.

September: -5.6°F/-0.09". Max temp 86°F. Min temp 37°F. Four lows in the 30s. 18 lows below 50°F. Two highs in the 80s. First six days 70°F+, then all 50s and 60s.

October: -3.4°F/+2.69". Max temp 68°F. Min temp 37°F. Not as "remarkably cold" as the summer preceding it, but still a decently chilly month. Of course we all know what followed in November... Worth noting that as "cool and wet" as this previous October was touted as, Oct 1955 was both more anomalously cooler and wetter. This century only 2019/2007/2001 even closely compare. And that's using the "weaker" of the months.

Of course 1955 was an exceptionally cold year; coming in at an all-time record 47.9°F. Compared to the rolling climate-adjusted averages it's as anomalous as the likes of 1985 and 2011. Not included in this was March 1955, which remains the coldest on record w/ 10.2" of snow and a 29/11 day on the 4th.

2011 is on its own tier of anomaly IMO. The yearly temp average of 51.0°F stands out immensely and is the coldest year since 1985's incredible 49.9°F average. Before that it's 50.6°F in 1971, then 50.0°F in 1964, then of course nearly every year in the 50's, lol. 2011 did this without any major, record breaking cold snaps too. It mixes well with any decade in the last 60 years, which for a 20th century year is really unmatched. 2000-02 and 2008 try their best but don't quite get down to 51.0°F. Maybe we'll see a sub 52°F year again someday. I really hope so.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Calm down everyone.  Weathermodels.com has it covered for you.  Except the control run.  Each image is a 5 day running average.

 

[Meatyorologist]

33 minutes ago, gusky said:

 

It's coming.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Calm down everyone.  Weathermodels.com has it covered for you.  Except the control run.  Each image is a 5 day running average.

 

That is last night's 00z run.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is last night's 00z run.

It is last night's weeklies, ran twice a week.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It is last night's weeklies, ran twice a week.

You’re both right.  

[gusky]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It is last night's weeklies, ran twice a week.

WeatherBell has last night's weeklies too

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Warning, stat dump:

I would kill for a 1955 warm season repeat. Just perfect all around. Most days in the 60s, lows cooling into the 40s. Occasional rain, occasional days in the 80s. A day or two above 90.

Here's how the "warm season" (months where strong heatwaves can occur, Apr-Oct) went (relative to 1991-2020 averages):

April: -6.7°F/+0.46". 3 freezes. Max temp 70°F. Min temp of 31°F on the 5th + 28th! Spits of onshore snow mid month; nothing measurable, just nighttime traces w/ lows in the low 30s. Coldest April on record.

May: -6.8°F/+0.07". Max temp 70°F. Min temp 38°F on four days early in the month. Only six lows above 45°F and two in the 50s.

June: -4.0°F/-0.18". Max temp 96°F on the 9th as part of a sharp two day heat wave; the hottest of the summer and an extreme outlier as the 5th through 12th went 60/71/74/85/96/75/74/63. Min temp 43°F. 22 highs below 70°F, 4 below 60°F.

July: -7.1°F(!)/+1.50". Max temp 82°F. Min temp 45°F. Only two days in the 80s, each falling consecutively on the 13th and 14th as 80/82. 19 days below 70°F! 59°F on the 3rd. Eight straight days with precipitation to finish the month. Six days at least 10°F below average. Coldest July on record.

August: -6.5°F/-0.80". Max temp 87°F. Min temp 44°F. Two highs in the 80s. 13 days below 70°F. A consistently chilly month.

September: -5.6°F/-0.09". Max temp 86°F. Min temp 37°F. Four lows in the 30s. 18 lows below 50°F. Two highs in the 80s. First six days 70°F+, then all 50s and 60s.

October: -3.4°F/+2.69". Max temp 68°F. Min temp 37°F. Not as "remarkably cold" as the summer preceding it, but still a decently chilly month. Of course we all know what followed in November... Worth noting that as "cool and wet" as this previous October was touted as, Oct 1955 was both more anomalously cooler and wetter. This century only 2019/2007/2001 even closely compare. And that's using the "weaker" of the months.

Of course 1955 was an exceptionally cold year; coming in at an all-time record 47.9°F. Compared to the rolling climate-adjusted averages it's as anomalous as the likes of 1985 and 2011. Not included in this was March 1955, which remains the coldest on record w/ 10.2" of snow and a 29/11 day on the 4th.

2011 is on its own tier of anomaly IMO. The yearly temp average of 51.0°F stands out immensely and is the coldest year since 1985's incredible 49.9°F average. Before that it's 50.6°F in 1971, then 50.0°F in 1964, then of course nearly every year in the 50's, lol. 2011 did this without any major, record breaking cold snaps too. It mixes well with any decade in the last 60 years, which for a 20th century year is really unmatched. 2000-02 and 2008 try their best but don't quite get down to 51.0°F. Maybe we'll see a sub 52°F year again someday. I really hope so.

Sounds like heaven.

 

[FrozenBites]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If you need any food or medicine, lmk and I’ll drop it off for you bro

Same here. I'm not to far from ya.

[MossMan]

So I bought new sleds for nothing. And Phil says we are most likely done for the next few years due to raging Ninos of inferno hell. 
 

Great. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If you need any food or medicine, lmk and I’ll drop it off for you bro

Appreciate the offer but I’m stocked up on everything I need. Todays day 6 so I should be out of the woods soon. Thanks though! 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not feeling it, but that doesn’t mean much.

On a related note, since it doesn’t seem to be getting much play this year, the PV looks pretty relentless for the foreseeable future.

Your call on December almost a year in advance was pretty darn good. I do think we see something again this winter probably won’t be as exciting as December 2021 though! Main reason I’m optimistic about it is there’s lots of time between now and late February for something to develop wether it’s a marginal chilly onshore type set up or some backdoor type set up. 

[TacomaWaWx]

47 after a low of 34 this morning. Not sure if we will start warming up before or after midnight. Next couple days look pretty toasty and wet. Will probably be close to 7” of rain by the end of the event. 

[joelgombiner]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Cliff's latest post. Seems like the science is pretty good, and he does a decent job at addressing BOTH sides of climate change, not just how climate change WON'T affect a certain issue. My one problem with it is the aggressive name calling. He literally names specific reporters and makes fun of them. Not productive in any way.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/does-massive-cascade-snowpack-mean-we.html

Took a break to read this, since his analysis is usually short and to the point. 

While I like the balanced tone, I do have a few issues from a science perspective. 

He doesn't ever justify why he starts his analysis in the 1980's. He has cherry-picked starting points in the past to create a trend (or lack-there-of) to fit a narrative. I'm not saying that's the case here, but it's a red flag for me. 

Another thing is whether we really care about the overall trend in snowpack on a 5-year running mean. I think planners probably also care about the frequency of extremely low snowpack years. Even one year of extremely low snowpack elevates wildfire risk, is damaging to salmon recovery, and sparks water shortages.