PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Geos]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've plowed snow for 30 years and there's definitely an art to it, you have to plan ahead for future snow and make sure to place it out of the way. Most of the places I did were condos so cars in the way everywhere.  32 years and have never damaged or hit anything.  

That's a great track record. I've seen snow plow drivers take out mailboxes before.

Little foggy in the May Valley now.

[RentonHill]

Here’s a section of the driveway in twisp we have to plow. It’s gravel and about 2.5 miles long. Some steep drop offs so we have to be a little careful

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA set another daily rainfall record... and is now over 6 inches for the month already on the 11th.  

Also 8 inches above normal for the water year so far.  

Its been just a bit wet around here compared to normal.  Might be a drier period coming... we are way overdue.   

You’re a rainfall magnet.

[TacomaWaWx]

Bulk of the rainfall is hitting SW WA right now. That area got hit really hard by the AR last week…causing I-5 to shut down. 

[Phil]

Mentioned this a week ago but it’s borderline fascinating how the west seems to flip warm every January, shortly after New Years. Rinse repeat.

Like clockwork, as if the atmosphere has OCD and is following a schedule to the minute.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Mentioned this a week ago but it’s borderline fascinating how the west seems to flip warm every January, shortly after New Years. Rinse repeat.

Like clockwork, as if the atmosphere is on a tight schedule that it follows to the minute.

Any idea what causes that? Would like to learn more about it.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I'm having trouble finding a priest who will give last rights to a snow pile.  Running out of time..

 

5pm

 

8:30pm

 

Its been around 50 most of the day, and ..50" of rain

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Any idea what causes that? Would like to learn more about it.

I have no idea. Could be a fluke. Or maybe it’s somehow a statistically favored outcome in the current climate regime.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like SEA set another daily rainfall record... and is now over 6 inches for the month already on the 11th.  

Also 8 inches above normal for the water year so far.  

Its been just a bit wet around here compared to normal.  Might be a drier period coming... we are way overdue.   

I hope it ends soon. Found a foot of water in my crawl space Saturday night. Pumped it out and it was drying until this next round came. It's a funny crawl space where it's about 6 feet tall so we had some stuff that got wet. Still trying to figure if it's ground water or the underground drainage from the downspouts. All pipes look fine. I'm guessing the second. Nice to see the AR dropping South. Never had water problems until after that last snow. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Over an inch of rain on the day now. Sitting at 1.10 today. Through the first 11 days of January, we are sitting at 6.36" of rain. Already over our monthly average. Less than two weeks. Wonderful. 

On another note, SD is looking at a snowstorm Friday with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits. Guess what their average January rainfall is... 0.60 inches. Heaven. 

And that's all total precipitation, including snow!

Average precipitation in the form of rain must be very, very little, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch.

[snow drift]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned this a week ago but it’s borderline fascinating how the west seems to flip warm every January, shortly after New Years. Rinse repeat.

Like clockwork, as if the atmosphere has OCD and is following a schedule to the minute.

January is a spring month these days.

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

January is a spring month these days.

The first few days of January were fairly wintery…but not so much the last week. 

[MossMan]

My dog looked at the GFS tonight. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned this a week ago but it’s borderline fascinating how the west seems to flip warm every January, shortly after New Years. Rinse repeat.

Like clockwork, as if the atmosphere has OCD and is following a schedule to the minute.

If it didn't then the Rose Parade would not have its famous sunny weather each year. 

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Over an inch of rain on the day now. Sitting at 1.10 today. Through the first 11 days of January, we are sitting at 6.36" of rain. Already over our monthly average. Less than two weeks. Wonderful. 

On another note, SD is looking at a snowstorm Friday with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits. Guess what their average January rainfall is... 0.60 inches. Heaven. 

I bet you are really starting to look forward to your move now! 

[Meatyorologist]

52°F and drizzly. Feels warm out there. January doing its usual #torch thing again.

I think the GFS will improve eventually. It's coming, just maybe not on the 20th...

February has been a snow machine this last decade+. Might as well use it while it's not broken.... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah not much to write home about right now. Euro and gfs are both warm…gfs quite a bit drier than the euro next week. 

[smerfylicious]

Over 10" of rain for the month already. Noice.

Sure would be nice if the models signaled some retrograding toward the end of the month...

[Skagit Weather]

The north/south gradient for precipitation has been pretty impressive so far this month. Bellingham is just above 2" while here it's 2.85" after 0.7" today (although this includes a couple tenths of an inch of melted snow that fell in 2020).

Meanwhile SEA is about 6" on the month and OLM is closing in on 9".

[Geos]

Temp up to 53° now with a strong south breeze.

[gusky]

Also, to whomever recommended The Expanse to me, just finished the first episode. It's great.

[TacomaWaWx]

1.50” now…rain has definitely picked up this evening after a lull this afternoon. 

[Geos]

Now it's pouring in Issaquah.

[Phil]

00z EPS looks like something Tim drew while bored in class.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

00z EPS looks like something Tim drew while bored in class.

So basically let's check back in about a week? 

[GHweatherChris]

Woohoo 2.5" now for the day!!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So basically let's check back in about a week? 

Still like the end of the month (or early February) for a transition into a more canonical Niña pattern.

Until then, it’s probably straight up +PNA/+TNH. Big time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Still like the end of the month (or early February) for a transition into a more canonical Niña pattern.

Until then, it’s probably straight up +PNA/+TNH. Big time.

I'm fine with that. As long as it happens. Enjoy your endless parade of arctic air. 

[Phil]

Reminds me of 2008/09. Sort of reversed in January, while both December and February had the La Niña pattern.

I remember that winter for the blizzard in March 2009. Kick started an amazing 2 year stretch of weather.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm fine with that. As long as it happens. Enjoy your endless parade of arctic air. 

I will if it snows.

[TacomaWaWx]

1.59” today…6.24” this month and still dumping. Was looking back at the weather records. 1 year ago today we were getting hit with an AR roughly the potency of this one. 2 years ago we were just about to head into a snow event in western WA. 

[Geos]

SEA will easily hit the 7" mark if this keeps up the rest of the night.

137" snowpack at Paradise right now. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Geos said:

SEA will easily hit the 7" mark if this keeps up the rest of the night.

137" snowpack at Paradise right now. 

Probably will…only need 0.75” to hit 7” for the month here. 1.78” storm total. Thankfully things look drier coming up…flooding might be bad tomorrow. 

[Meatyorologist]

More data dumping!

February's at KSEA since 2011; departures relative to 1991-2020 avg. Purple colored years indicating snow:

2011: -4.7°F/-0.71". Great cold snap at the end of the month. Subfreezing high of 31°F on the 25th and 2" of snow on the 23rd. A 19°F low on the 26th too.

2012: -0.8°F/-0.07". Various spits of nighttime snow at the end of the month.

2013: +0.4°F/-2.18". Mildish and dry. No lows below freezing. No real warm spells, either. Kind of a dud.

2014: -2.3°F/+2.35". Nice cold snap at the beginning of the month. A high of 31°F on the 5th followed by a high of 29°F on the 6th. The 6th also had a low of 21°F (monthly min); part of a three day streak with lows <=23°F, and a seven day streak of lows <=32°F. 2.9" of snow on the 8th.

2015: +4.8°F/+2.51". A complete torch. A high of 49°F on the 1st was as cool as it got; a single lone outlier in the 40s standing in a crowd of 50s and 60s. It does not belong. No subfreezing lows, though it got very close on the 23rd with a low of 33°F. A month to forget.

2016: +3.4°F/+3.21". Like a less extreme version of 2015. Up to an amazing THREE highs below 50°F! Next...

2017: -2.7°F/+5.09". A consistently chilly and very wet month. Six freezes in total as well as a pair of sub-40°F highs. Most notably however is the 7.1" snowstorm on the night of the 5th into the morning of the 6th. (My house got 1.5"...) Throw in another 0.1" of snow on the 27th and you have yourself an admirable February.

2018: -2.9°F/-1.60". An otherwise dry, variable month defined by a mid month cold snap. Several days in the mid 30s and lows in the mid-upper 20s. 1" of snow on the 21st (a high of 34°F too!), alongside multiple days with a trace. Pretty alright!

2019: -7.3°F/+0.86". A god amongst men. 20.2" of snow. 16 days with subfreezing lows. All but two days below average. The pinnacle of 21st century Februaries, and the most anomalously cold month this side of the year 2000. As good as it gets.

2020: -0.4°F/+0.28". A pair of days with a trace on the 3rd and 4th. Otherwise a very uneventful February, on the chilly and damp side. Closer to what I would consider as an "average" month than anything else. Not a bad February by any means.

2021: -2.6°F/+0.92". A mostly cool and damp month, interrupted by a very fun mid-month Arctic event. Associated with it came western Washington's biggest and most widespread snowstorm in just over 9 years when 6.8" of snow fell on 1/18/12. 11.1" of snow fell in a 18 hour time period at SeaTac on the 12th and 13th. After a subfreezing high of 31°F on the 13th, and an additional 1.3" of heavy, wet snow on the morning of the 14th, it was over.

Aside from a few exceptions, the last decade of February's have been very good to us. Let's add another good one to this list!

[TacomaWaWx]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we managed a +1” total tomorrow too. Not surprising this January is turning warm and wet despite the chilly weather and even a bit of snow to start out. 

[TacomaWaWx]

February 6th @Meatyorologist

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not much hope on the CFS. 

[Phil]

Hmm…

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hmm…

 

I thought phase 7 was good for us? Yet this winter has sucked.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought phase 7 was good for us? Yet this winter has sucked.

Jim says it good. This winter could be worse though almost everyone scored! Just wasn’t on the same level south of Tacoma. Still time too only mid January.