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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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Partly sunny and 48 this morning temperatures have been interesting the last 24 hours we hit 54 around 6pm yesterday when light southerlies broke through, dropped into the 40s again, then hit mid-50s again overnight. Meanwhile just 3-4 miles away down closer to to Columbia River it has been in the mid-40s with east winds the whole time 

Drove down to the old Evergreen Highway last night and the car thermometer showed a close to ten degree gradient over a couple miles at one point 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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One of the most hideous GFS runs you will ever see in mid-winter. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is feeling like Jan 2019. I'd bet money February is going to rock. Probably start to see some good runs in a few days pop up.

At least we had a good December leading up to this. Otherwise we'd be in a real funk.

  • Like 4

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Finally got house plans engineered and approved. Picked a bad time to build but whatever I guess. Can only afford to do foundation done this year then framing following year.  Here it is. It was a plan I found and we just made some changes.  I really like the concrete pad around the house. Added pic of where it will be built.

w800x533 (1).jpg

w800x533.jpg

20211229_152210.jpg

We know where the next forum meet up will be now😏😏😏

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  • Excited 3
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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We know where the next forum meet up will be now😏😏😏

Petition to name @MR.SNOWMIZER's new place "The Forum Penthouse"?

  • Excited 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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better.png

  • Like 5
  • Popcorn 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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gfs_uv250_namer_65.png

lmao look at that polar jet at 60° north and that raging subtropical jet slamming into SoCal.

literally an el niño pattern, full stop

  • Sick 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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31 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We know where the next forum meet up will be now😏😏😏

Has there even been a forum meet up? Can't call it the 'next one' if there wasn't a 'first one'.

Oh, Chris beat me to the punch here.

Edited by jakerepp
Derp

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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18 minutes ago, iFred said:

We had one today in Everett. No one showed up.

I’ll probably be in Everett again in July. Party at your place?

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is feeling like Jan 2019. I'd bet money February is going to rock. Probably start to see some good runs in a few days pop up.

I was just thinking it almost has to flip at some point, just hope it happens before March so everyone can get in on it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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chart (1).png

In August of 2012 something fundamentally changed about our summertime climate, and we haven't returned since. Wild.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_uv250_namer_65.png

lmao look at that polar jet at 60° north and that raging subtropical jet slamming into SoCal.

literally an el niño pattern, full stop

One difference between this January and 2009 is the STJ. Otherwise it’s a remarkably similar evolution.

Jan 2009 was frigid here but dry as a bone. This time around we might actually get snow. Never would have thought 2008/09 would be a viable analog but I stand massively corrected.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

One difference between this January and 2009 is the STJ. Otherwise it’s a remarkably similar evolution.

Jan 2009 was frigid here but dry as a bone. This time around we might actually get snow. Never would have thought 2008/09 would be a viable analog but I stand massively corrected.

January 2009 was not a blowtorch here though...

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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chart (2).png

Signs of some kind of intra-decadal regime change? Reflecting back on this previous August, it seemed like the second half of the month felt oddly cool compared to any summer period in recent memory. Peeling over the data, that intuition was correct -- the second half of this most recent August (15th thru 31st) was the coldest such stretch since 2001. It's a bit of a cherrypick, and it may seem superstitious, but if the most recent regime shift occurred in August, then perhaps there is something to see here? Honestly, I'm just grasping at straws at this point.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

chart (1).png

In August of 2012 something fundamentally changed about our summertime climate, and we haven't returned since. Wild.

Trust me... I've noticed. The summers of 2013 and 2014 were actually really warm in Western Oregon, but they have been overshadowed by pretty much every subsequent summer. 2019 and 20 weren't horrible overall, though 2021 made up for it...

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

chart (2).png

Signs of some kind of intra-decadal regime change? Reflecting back on this previous August, it seemed like the second half of the month felt oddly cool compared to any summer period in recent memory. Peeling over the data, that intuition was correct -- the second half of this most recent August (15th thru 31st) was the coldest such stretch since 2001. It's a bit of a cherrypick, and it may seem superstitious, but if the most recent regime shift occurred in August, then perhaps there is something to see here? Honestly, I'm just grasping at straws at this point.

We get cooler summers, but shitty late 90s-like winters. lol

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

chart (1).png

In August of 2012 something fundamentally changed about our summertime climate, and we haven't returned since. Wild.

The shift actually happened in January 2013.

Hadley-Walker IR/G-ITCZ low pass was jolted by a massive subseasonal event (stemming from SSW) to a threshold crossing across frequencies. Basically a intra/interdecadal event along the lines of the great 1976 pacific climate shift, though expressed more thru warm pool/off-eq dynamics than well known ET EOFs like PDO. 

Looked like a typical, albeit high amplitude intraseasonal cycle at the time. Little did we know…

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2009 was not a blowtorch here though...

It was ridgy though. Slight tweaks in the pattern seem to make a significant difference up there.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It was ridgy though. Slight tweaks in the pattern seem to make a significant difference up there.

True and we had a mid-month inversion, I remember temps in the foothills and Cascades were very warm, but it wasn't to warm in the valley. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Trust me... I've noticed. The summers of 2013 and 2014 were actually really warm in Western Oregon, but they have been overshadowed by pretty much every subsequent summer. 2019 and 20 weren't horrible overall, though 2021 made up for it...

It's just odd to me. Did we reach a "tipping point" due to AGW? Was there some physical boundary that we surpassed, some macroscale manifestation of the decades-long cumulative changes in the microchemistry and viscosity of marine layers?

Even the summer of 2019, which was dominated by weak troughing, is still scores warmer than a vast pool of summers when historically ranked. It feels like an obvious and drastic fundamental shift in the structure of marine layers; their depth, strength, forward motion, tendancy to burn off, ect.

Phil will probably chime in telling me that this is all a bit rash, and that I'm being short-sighted. Maybe he's right.... Maybe I'm just blinded by recency bias. Perhaps we'll be looking back in a decade after a string of genuinely cool summers, worrying about a softer, smoother upwards trendline. After all, before this December, I was doubting whether my location would ever see a sub-25°F high ever again. But what I can say for certain is that something changed recently, and it's quite obvious.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

The shift actually happened in January 2013.

Hadley-Walker IR/G-ITCZ low pass was jolted by a massive subseasonal event (stemming from SSW) to a threshold crossing across frequencies. Basically a intra/interdecadal event along the lines of the great 1976 pacific climate shift, though expressed more thru warm pool/off-eq dynamics than well known ET EOFs like PDO. 

Looked like a typical, albeit high amplitude intraseasonal cycle at the time. Little did we know…

I say August 2012 because that was the first month in which ridging became the default pattern mode. That month came in above normal. It continued into September of that year, then every summer month since...

Funnily enough I actually enjoyed it. June/July of that year were quite sad for watersports. 'Little did we know' indeed...

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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chart (3).png

That rapid, sudden change is not evident during the winter. Other than a gradual 1-2°F rise, there hasn't been a major change in our (average) winter temperatures, at least in the same way we've seen summer temperatures change.

Affinity for Arctic air is another story...

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Euro looks drier next week than last nights run. Gfs is the slightly wetter one now but either run is a lot drier than what we’ve been seeing recently. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's just odd to me. Did we reach a "tipping point" due to AGW? Was there some physical boundary that we surpassed, some macroscale manifestation of the decades-long cumulative changes in the microchemistry and viscosity of marine layers?

Even the summer of 2019, which was dominated by weak troughing, is still scores warmer than a vast pool of summers when historically ranked. It feels like an obvious and drastic fundamental shift in the structure of marine layers; their depth, strength, forward motion, tendancy to burn off, ect.

Phil will probably chime in telling me that this is all a bit rash, and that I'm being short-sighted. Maybe he's right.... Maybe I'm just blinded by recency bias. Perhaps we'll be looking back in a decade after a string of genuinely cool summers, worrying about a softer, smoother upwards trendline. After all, before this December, I was doubting whether my location would ever see a sub-25°F high ever again. But what I can say for certain is that something changed recently, and it's quite obvious.

Yeah, I think the shift is AGW related, and it began even earlier. Just the cooler summers of 2010-12 masked it a bit. 

  • Sad 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I take that as a no

He’s fine lol. There’s not much for him to even try and extrapolate on the models right now.

  • Sick 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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