PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[gusky]

Pressure bump visible at my house. That's so crazy to me.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm assuming this is still shooting SO2 up into the atmosphere so we don't know the VEI yet. Are at a minimum? Like 5 or 6?

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm assuming this is still shooting SO2 up into the atmosphere so we don't know the VEI yet. Are at a minimum? Like 5 or 6?

A VEI6 is a once or twice in a century level eruption. I don't imagine this is anywhere near that significant.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm assuming this is still shooting SO2 up into the atmosphere so we don't know the VEI yet. Are at a minimum? Like 5 or 6?

Has to get to the stratosphere to induce cooling.    I am sure it shot a bunch into the stratosphere last night but doubt its still reaching that high.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A VEI6 is a once or twice in a century level eruption. I don't imagine this is anywhere near that significant.

Was Pinatubo a 6? If not then this could be it. Hopefully will give us some cool summers again and can get Arctic airmasses down here like the old days. Only other way would be a bolide impact.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A VEI6 is a once or twice in a century level eruption. I don't imagine this is anywhere near that significant.

It had to have been at least a 5. Mount St. Helens in 1980 was a 5.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Was Pinatubo a 6?

It was.

[RentonHill]

We ain’t dead yet sanka 

[gusky]

Any consensus yet on how this could affect PNW weather?

[RentonHill]

Just now, iFred said:

As a VEI-2 or 3 eruption, no.

Agree. Probably should keep all mention of it to banter thread from here on out. Or the east coast thread where they are likely to benefit from our cool summer. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It had to have been at least a 5. Mount St. Helens in 1980 was a 5.

Could be, just depends on the amount of volcanic tephra actually ejected into the atmosphere, which won't be determined for awhile.

Puyehue in Chile in 2011 was the largest eruption this century at about 1 cubic km of material ejected. The Mt. St. Helens eruption ejected over 2.5 cubic kilometers of tephra, so it was a bit larger than any 21st century eruption to date. 

Pinatubo ejected over 13 cubic kilometers, so it was orders of magnitude greater than St. Helens or anything since 1991.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

As a VEI-2 or 3 eruption, no.

 

[lowlandsnow]

Wikipedia has it at a 5

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably a 4 at most. A lot of Doomers trying to make this something it is not.

Definitely a long ways from Krakatoa 

2023 and beyond impacts for Snohomish County include Everett AC unit heat stress/failure and subsequent Fraser River fronts getting hung up on the Skagit/Snohomish line.

[Deweydog]

So summer cancel uncancel?

[ShawniganLake]

I’m sure any cooling effects of this minimal eruption will be mitigated locally by a raging nino in 2023.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Still going.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m sure any cooling effects of this minimal eruption will be mitigated locally by a raging nino in 2023.  

Maybe it will delay the end of the world by one year until 2031.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So summer cancel uncancel?

 

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports!

And we all thought this was just gonna be another January snoozefest. Pfft!!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Foggy night low of 36 here sun is coming out now and up to 41

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A VEI6 is a once or twice in a century level eruption. I don't imagine this is anywhere near that significant.

Wouldn’t shock me if it was. Plume height was comparable to that of Pinatubo (VEI6), at roughly 35km.

Could be a high end VEI5 like El Chicon. Either way it’s right up there.

[gusky]

Phil thinks it's a VEI5 or 6, @iFredthinks it's a 2 or 3... We will see who's right with time.

[Phil]

The sound of Tim’s summer dreams going up in ash.

 

[Phil]

Just now, gusky said:

Phil thinks it's a VEI5 or 6, @iFredthinks it's a 2 or 3... We will see who's right with time.

Lol. Fred is being sarcastic.

[Kayla]

52 minutes ago, iFred said:

Looking at the plume of this one and how it was fairly short lived, I'd even wager this was a VEI-2. These kinds of eruptions just under the surface of the water can make a lot of noise and give a great steam display, but there isnt much tephra to write home about.

We need to wait to see how much tephra was injected but I have a real hard time believing this was a VEI-2 with the plume reaching near the mesosphere.

[gusky]

Some pretty good discussion about it in my post on r/Weather
Tongs just experienced a massive volcanic eruption. Tsunami has already reached the island, 1.5m surge. Shockwaves easily visible from satellite traveling ~500mph : weather (reddit.com) 

 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, gusky said:

Phil thinks it's a VEI5 or 6, @iFredthinks it's a 2 or 3... We will see who's right with time.

VEI-5/6

[gusky]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. Fred is being sarcastic.

Man, I can never pick up on his sarcasm.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

My wife just got the tsunami alert blaring on her phone, I did not. 

I had to go to Lynwood this morning to take a whiz quiz for my new job, and a few people waiting in line for the testing center got alerts, but I didn’t get one until 1.5 hours later

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wouldn’t shock me if it was. Plume height was comparable to that of Pinatubo (VEI6), at roughly 35km.

Could be a high end VEI5 like El Chicon. Either way it’s right up there.

We're going to have to start seeing satellite evidence of really massive volumes of SO2 emission pretty soon if it's anywhere near that. Initial measurements don't really look comparable (and statistically the likelihood of an eruption that size is always very small) but the next day or so should be more telling...

 

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, iFred said:

You were right on the winter cancel, you are right about this being a VEI-0.

Clearly Mazama levels.

Snohomish weenies will for decades be discussing the great Everett 4th of July graupel shower of '23 as the Tims of the region desperately flee to the Atacama....

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We're going to have to start seeing satellite evidence of really massive volumes of SO2 emission pretty soon if it's anywhere near that. Initial measurements don't really look comparable (and statistically the likelihood of an eruption that size is always very small) but the next day or so should be more telling...

 

That’s the previous eruption. The larger explosion occurred several hours later.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A VEI6 is a once or twice in a century level eruption. I don't imagine this is anywhere near that significant.

Is that anything like 100 year floods that seem to keep happening every 10-20 years?

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

The sound of Tim’s summer dreams going up in ash.

 

I swear you frame everything in your world in reference to me.    I live in your head.   

Its unlikely to have any impact on this coming summer.     We will see about 2023.    The winter of 1992-93 was pretty nice... the real price paid was in June and July of 1993.     But August - October 1993 was beautiful.     I am guessing if this eruption has an impact on warm season weather here it will be in June and July of 2023.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually a chilly day here in Salem, only 39 at noon. Finally some fake cool. 

[Phil]

Plume height of initial eruption was roughly 15-20km. Barely breached the stratosphere. The subsequent/larger explosion reached roughly 35km, perhaps higher. All else being equal, that would be a huge difference in terms of stratospheric SO^2 injection.

Of course, all else is not equal. So..  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Something that just crossed my mind, might make for some interesting discussion….

 

we are of course seeing the impact on the atmosphere…..what about under water….I’m thinking specifically about submarines out and about wandering the the Pacific, what they would have heard/felt and from how far away….

 

I don’t know if we have any retired submariners on the forum that could weigh in….

 

I dunno, I guess kind of an interesting mental exercise….

[Chewbacca Defense]

Seeing a couple of videos out of Santa Cruz.  I seem to remember they were pretty heavily by the Fukushima tsunami.