PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Is that anything like 100 year floods that seem to keep happening every 10-20 years?

I would say that depends on the waterway.

Down here we are getting to be overdue for a flood of some significance (25 year interval). Different story on the Nooksack and Skagit.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we have something to talk about now (and that not referring to recent geologic events).  We finally have decent agreement on rising GOA heights later in the month.

The biggest reason I haven't been on here is I was simply spending WAY too much time posting and I needed to take a break.

[snow_wizard]

This morning I did a little bit of research on the glaciation that buried the Puget Sound region during the last ice age, and it seems they are learning more and more about it all the time.  I found a number of details I hadn't known before.

1. When the ice sheet was advancing southward through Western WA it did so at amazing 450 feet per year!

2. The ice sheet actually reached fairly far south of Olympia, which is a bit further than I had thought.

3. They have been able to deduce that SW WA had an annual average temperature roughly 11F lower than present, and precip was only 25% of present.  Seattle was undoubtedly much colder than that due to increased elevation due to ice thickness of 2000 to 3000 feet and the chilling effect of the ice.

4. They have found fossil remains of sagebrush and subalpine fir in the Puget Sound basin.  Incredible to imagine this as a semi arid / forest steppe climate before the ice buried the region!

Pretty fascinating topic.

[RentonHill]

End of EPS

[snow_wizard]

One thing you have to say about the current pattern is the gloom has been shut off and we at least have a second rate inversion in progress.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

End of EPS

We finally have both ensembles on board.

[Chewbacca Defense]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This morning I did a little bit of research on the glaciation that buried the Puget Sound region during the last ice age, and it seems they are learning more and more about it all the time.  I found a number of details I hadn't known before.

1. When the ice sheet was advancing southward through Western WA it did so at amazing 450 feet per year!

2. The ice sheet actually reached fairly far south of Olympia, which is a bit further than I had thought.

3. They have been able to deduce that SW WA had an annual average temperature roughly 11F lower than present, and precip was only 25% of present.  Seattle was undoubtedly much colder than that due to increased elevation due to ice thickness of 2000 to 3000 feet and the chilling effect of the ice.

4. They have found fossil remains of sagebrush and subalpine fir in the Puget Sound basin.  Incredible to imagine this as a semi arid / forest steppe climate before the ice buried the region!

Pretty fascinating topic.

@Phil disagrees without further proof and accurate, reliable reporting data….this is awfully anecdotal…..

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  I just saw a satellite loop of the eruption and it was big.  Massive steam and ash cloud and you could actually see the shock wave spreading out from it.  I was just thinking the other day we are really due for a big eruption.  This was big, but probably not the one we are due for.

I was reading something a few weeks ago about there being two eruptions bigger than Krakatoa in a four or five year period in the not too distant past.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

@Phil disagrees without further proof and accurate, reliable reporting data….this is awfully anecdotal…..

I should have added they calculated the temperature change based on pollen data of all things.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day... and the remnants of once great snowbanks that were higher than my car at the peak.

[TT-SEA]

Just saw this... probably won't have much of an impact up here.

Although the Tonga volcanic eruption is also very strong, it should be the strength of the upper end of VEI5 or the lower end of VEI6, which is not enough to transport a huge amount of volcanic ash that affects the global climate into the stratosphere; the eruption site is in the southern hemisphere, and the impact on the northern hemisphere is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of this Tonga volcanic eruption on the global climate, especially on the northern hemisphere, should be weaker than that of Mount Pinatubo.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

We're going to have to start seeing satellite evidence of really massive volumes of SO2 emission pretty soon if it's anywhere near that. Initial measurements don't really look comparable (and statistically the likelihood of an eruption that size is always very small) but the next day or so should be more telling...

 

Pinatubo only put around ~75kt of SO2 its first day…these things take some time.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Although the Tonga volcanic eruption is also very strong, it should be the strength of the upper end of VEI5 or the lower end of VEI6, which is not enough to transport a huge amount of volcanic ash that affects the global climate into the stratosphere; the eruption site is in the southern hemisphere, and the impact on the northern hemisphere is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of this Tonga volcanic eruption on the global climate, especially on the northern hemisphere, should be weaker than that of Mount Pinatubo.

Source? Super early but seems like the most likely scenario with this.

[Anti Marine Layer]

I think we have a Rex Block

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing you have to say about the current pattern is the gloom has been shut off and we at least have a second rate inversion in progress.

Gloom shut off? 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gloom shut off? 

Fog is fine with me.

[snow_wizard]

47 / 35 here so far today.  At least it's not a torch.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Fog is fine with me.

You have a very specific definition of gloom.    Foggy and cold is also gloomy.

[Omegaraptor]

Only 43 in Corvallis. Not quite foggy but very dense low level clouds

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Take a look at LiDAR for the Puget Sound (I’m on my phone so I can’t link easily) and you’ll be able to clearly visualize the path and extent of the Puget lobe of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet. If you’re looking for geologic mysteries of the northwest, look up or go visit the mima mounds near Olympia. 

Poulsbo remains completely socked in this afternoon. 

I think the sage brush and sub alpine fir would be almost a big a shock to see here as the ice sheet.  Truly amazing what this area has been through in the past.  I really think a lot of people are simply unaware this stuff ever happened.  If they knew I think the 1 inch sea level rise in the last century would be put into serious perspective.

[Phishy Wx]

WOW!!!

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just saw this... probably won't have much of an impact up here.

Although the Tonga volcanic eruption is also very strong, it should be the strength of the upper end of VEI5 or the lower end of VEI6, which is not enough to transport a huge amount of volcanic ash that affects the global climate into the stratosphere; the eruption site is in the southern hemisphere, and the impact on the northern hemisphere is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of this Tonga volcanic eruption on the global climate, especially on the northern hemisphere, should be weaker than that of Mount Pinatubo.

It's still interesting to see something that Robert Felix was talking about for years with underwater valcanos.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

WOW!!!

 

 

Kind of scary...

Maybe reverberating sound from the volcano?  I have also heard of noises like happening before a big quake.

EDIT:  Just noticed the time stamp.  If the volcano was that loud in AK it had to have been a very big eruption.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I just saw a satellite loop of the eruption and it was big.  Massive steam and ash cloud and you could actually see the shock wave spreading out from it.  I was just thinking the other day we are really due for a big eruption.  This was big, but probably not the one we are due for.

I was reading something a few weeks ago about there being two eruptions bigger than Krakatoa in a four or five year period in the not too distant past.

I recorded a pressure spike on my station around 430 am and so did others. Absolutely incredible power was unleashed. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Seeing a couple of videos out of Santa Cruz.  I seem to remember they were pretty heavily by the Fukushima tsunami.

 

 

use to live there, after fukushima though but it tore up the harbor pretty good

[MossMan]

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I recorded a pressure spike on my station around 430 am and so did others. Absolutely incredible power was unleashed. 

The way you could see the shock wave on the sat pic loop was incredible.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have a very specific definition of gloom.    Foggy and cold is also gloomy.

Yes sir, barley better than rain. I normally don't complain about rain and mud but the ground around my property is nothing like I've ever had. Water everywhere, have had more tree's fall than ever because the ground is just so soggy. I walked back in the woods to the seasonal pond that is normally 2 feet deep and 50 ft wide and it's 6 feet deep and 200 feet across drowning all the fir trees. Nature is amazing.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This morning I did a little bit of research on the glaciation that buried the Puget Sound region during the last ice age, and it seems they are learning more and more about it all the time.  I found a number of details I hadn't known before.

1. When the ice sheet was advancing southward through Western WA it did so at amazing 450 feet per year!

2. The ice sheet actually reached fairly far south of Olympia, which is a bit further than I had thought.

3. They have been able to deduce that SW WA had an annual average temperature roughly 11F lower than present, and precip was only 25% of present.  Seattle was undoubtedly much colder than that due to increased elevation due to ice thickness of 2000 to 3000 feet and the chilling effect of the ice.

4. They have found fossil remains of sagebrush and subalpine fir in the Puget Sound basin.  Incredible to imagine this as a semi arid / forest steppe climate before the ice buried the region!

Pretty fascinating topic.

Annual average temp in SW WA was, in all likelihood, significantly lower than 11F below present at glacial maximum.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I swear you frame everything in your world in reference to me.    I live in your head.   

Its unlikely to have any impact on this coming summer.     We will see about 2023.    The winter of 1992-93 was pretty nice... the real price paid was in June and July of 1993.     But August - October 1993 was beautiful.     I am guessing if this eruption has an impact on warm season weather here it will be in June and July of 2023.    

March 93 also saw the massive east coast Superstorm/Blizzard

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just saw this... probably won't have much of an impact up here.

Although the Tonga volcanic eruption is also very strong, it should be the strength of the upper end of VEI5 or the lower end of VEI6, which is not enough to transport a huge amount of volcanic ash that affects the global climate into the stratosphere; the eruption site is in the southern hemisphere, and the impact on the northern hemisphere is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of this Tonga volcanic eruption on the global climate, especially on the northern hemisphere, should be weaker than that of Mount Pinatubo.

Uh, that’s definitely not accurate. El Chichon (1982) was a VEI5. Pinatubo (1991) was a low end VEI6.

Both had observable effects on the global circulation/stratosphere, and produced modest drops in global temperatures.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Clearly Mazama levels.

Snohomish weenies will for decades be discussing the great Everett 4th of July graupel shower of '23 as the Tims of the region desperately flee to the Atacama....

'22-'23 Winter will be a force to reckon with across the US! 

Exactly 30 years after the last volcanic one... 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Annual average temp in SW WA was, in all likelihood, significantly lower than 11F below present at glacial maximum.

Very possible with the cold wind blowing off the ice sheet.  I'm not totally sure how they used the pollen samples to arrive at that number.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm just now checking in here, no idea if any loops were shared. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

'22-'23 Winter will be a force to reckon with across the US! 

Exactly 30 years after the last volcanic one... 

If we can hang onto the Nina or at least have neutral ENSO next winter I think it has great potential given the context we are in.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I'm just now checking in here, no idea if any loops were shared. 

D**n that was big.

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If we can hang onto the Nina or at least have neutral ENSO next winter I think it has great potential given the context we are in.

Highly doubt we hang onto any -ENSO at this point.

[snow_wizard]

BTW....anyone who saw a pressure change from the shockwave should be on the lookout for another one or two.  With Krakatoa the shockwave circled the Earth several times.

[Timmy Supercell]

Now that I left K-Falls, watch Lake Mazama actually start bubbling.. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Foggy