PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Forgot to post this. Over 700hp clawing it's way up through 18 inches of snow to our property.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yes I'm a hp junky!! Make sure to turn up volume on that vid.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we can hang onto the Nina or at least have neutral ENSO next winter I think it has great potential given the context we are in.

Neutral is most likely, and actually some of the most impressive cold in the 2010's (13-14) happened during one. 

At least in any real prolonged nature, Dec 2013 and Feb 2014 were in my book the last true arctic blasts.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd love to get a nice arctic blast with just a few inches of dry snow and then a week of sunny days around 28 degrees.  So hard to pull off anymore.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Forgot to post this. Over 700hp clawing it's way up through 18 inches of snow to our property.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Our little Maltese absolutely loves the snow. Every pic I take like this she's always looking out window all happy to see the snow. The little geo tracker did so good and we never got it stuck. Nice thing is that it's very light so if you get stuck there’s no problem getting it out. 

[Phil]

Should have SO2 estimates for the bigger eruption in a few hours.

The ash plume was certainly comparable Pinatubo, but was the SO2 content also comparable? We’ll see.

[smerfylicious]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW....anyone who saw a pressure change from the shockwave should be on the lookout for another one or two.  With Krakatoa the shockwave circled the Earth several times.

Decided to check my local weather station data and wouldn't you know it, big pressure spike and drop a bit before 6am.

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Should have SO2 estimates for the bigger eruption in a few hours.

The ash plume was certainly comparable Pinatubo, but was the SO2 content also comparable? We’ll see.

The width of the plume at high altitude is particularly impressive. It'd be like blanketing most of Oregon and Washington with an initial plume. 

One thing is for sure, this was a massive eruption. Can't think of a more powerful one this century.

[snow_wizard]

I can't imagine the havoc this would cause today.  Three enormous volcanic eruptions in an 11 year period that caused a 4F to 5F drop in global temps.  This article says that 536 (and the years following) were perhaps the worst years to be alive.

Volcanic winter of 536 - Wikipedia

[Phil]

This is crazy.

 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is crazy.

 

That must have been some absolute fluff.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty epic 18z GFS run for the eastern 2/3 of the country.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Agree. Probably should keep all mention of it to banter thread from here on out. Or the east coast thread where they are likely to benefit from our cool summer. 

Don't forget parts of the PNW hasn't had a winter like 92-93, since then. 

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine the havoc this would cause today.  Three enormous volcanic eruptions in an 11 year period that caused a 4F to 5F drop in global temps.  This article says that 536 (and the years following) were perhaps the worst years to be alive.

Volcanic winter of 536 - Wikipedia

I can see it now... wasting away from famine and disease as society completely breaks down and even near death we are celebrating cold anomalies on here and want it to get colder.  

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Don't forget parts of the PNW hasn't had a winter like 92-93, since then. 

NWS has you in the 8-12” zone tomorrow night.  

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

NWS has you in the 8-12” zone tomorrow night.  

Just polished the ruler 

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine the havoc this would cause today.  Three enormous volcanic eruptions in an 11 year period that caused a 4F to 5F drop in global temps.  This article says that 536 (and the years following) were perhaps the worst years to be alive.

Volcanic winter of 536 - Wikipedia

Surreal stuff... and nothing you can do about it and no way to escape it.  

Byzantine historian Procopius recorded in 536 CE in his report on the wars with the Vandals, "during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness … and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear".^[5][6]

In 538, Roman statesman Cassiodorus described the following to one of his subordinates in letter 25:^[7]

• The sun's rays were weak, and it appeared a "bluish" colour.
• At noon, no shadows from people were visible on the ground.
• The heat from the sun was feeble.
• The moon, even when full, was "empty of splendour"
• "A winter without storms, a spring without mildness, and a summer without heat"
• Prolonged frost and unseasonable drought
• The seasons "seem to be all jumbled up together"
• The sky is described as "blended with alien elements" just like cloudy weather, except prolonged. It was "stretched like a hide across the sky" and prevented the "true colours" of the sun and moon from being seen, along with the sun's warmth.

[Phil]

Fascinating read re: Tonga caldera. Apparently I was mistaken about its age.

 https://theconversation.com/why-the-volcanic-eruption-in-tonga-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next-175035

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty epic 18z GFS run for the eastern 2/3 of the country.

Nice finish on both the 12z and 18z though.  The ball should be in our court by months end.

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Don't forget parts of the PNW hasn't had a winter like 92-93, since then. 

That was a great winter here actually.  I'll never forget in early January that winter a guy was riding his bike on the icy sidewalk and fell on his arse and had an all out temper tantrum in front the restaurant I was at.

[MossMan]

Another memory from 2yrs ago today. 

[Skagit Weather]

Sorry to keep the volcano discussion going, but I went down a rabbit hole of watching the pressure wave progress around the world. The first graph is the plot of the barometer from my station. You can see the arrival of the wave at about 4:25 which was about 8 hours and 10 minutes after the initial explosion. My data is pretty noisy, but it seems the pressure continued to oscillate for about an hour and a half before settling down.

This next graph is based on PWS readings from around the globe. I went to Weather Underground and estimated the starting time of the pressure wave from various locations west of the explosion using the various weather stations. These times are plotted versus their distance from the volcano. It's kind of cool to see how well they fit a linear line with the pressure wave traveling at about 310 m/s (~700 mph) which is just under the speed of sound.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 43/37 for SEA today.  Not great, but better than most days in recent Januarys.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Sorry to keep the volcano discussion going, but I went down a rabbit hole of watching the pressure wave progress around the world. The first graph is the plot of the barometer from my station. You can see the arrival of the wave at about 4:25 which was about 8 hours and 10 minutes after the initial explosion. My data is pretty noisy, but it seems the pressure continued to oscillate for about an hour and a half before settling down.

This next graph is based on PWS readings from around the globe. I went to Weather Underground and estimated the starting time of the pressure wave from various locations west of the explosion using the various weather stations. These times are plotted versus their distance from the volcano. It's kind of cool to see how well they fit a linear line with the pressure wave traveling at about 310 m/s (~700 mph) which is just under the speed of sound.

This is well worth discussing.  Don't be afraid to post more about it.

[Skagit Weather]

You can also still see the ocean sloshing around on the various tidal gauges.

Crescent City shows the most impressive changes, but you can also see the tsunami's appearance in some of the gauges in the Strait at Port Angeles and Port Townsend (although the signal is much weaker).

[Snownerd3000]

So we all expect this volcano to rearrange the pacific, build that ridge back and delivery feet of snow to the PNW, right?

[KingstonWX]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

So we all expect this volcano to rearrange the pacific, build that ridge back and delivery feet of snow to the PNW, right?

Yes, it begins tonight. Ignore the models. 

[NWbyNW]

Parts of Washington were enveloped in a soup of fog today that never quite let up, especially along the water.  Here are some photos from Mukilteo and Everett.  The fog never lifted.  We haven't had fog like this since last year from what I can remember.  If you gained some elevation, the skies were blue and clear.  Temps were 37-43F during the daylight hours... or fog...hours?  You could hear the fog horn on ships and the lighthouses around here all day.

 

 

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous day... and the remnants of once great snowbanks that were higher than my car at the peak.

How? We are socked in fog here the whole day. Now it’s getting thicker even. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Parts of Washington were developed in a soup of fog today that never quite let up, especially along the water.  Here are some photos from Mukilteo and Everett.  The fog never lifted.  We haven't had fog like this since last year from what I can remember.  If you gained some elevation, the skies were blue and clear.  Temps were 37-43F during the daylight hours... or fog...hours?  

 

 

Nice collection. I miss the fog I used to get.

[gusky]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW....anyone who saw a pressure change from the shockwave should be on the lookout for another one or two.  With Krakatoa the shockwave circled the Earth several times.

Was thinking about that earlier. Krakatoa circulated every 34 hrs; if this holds true for this one than we'll see it again around 2-4 in the afternoon tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

How? We are socked in fog here the whole day. Now it’s getting thicker even. 

How is there fog near the Sound and sunny weather in the foothills?    Winter inversion.   Its pretty common when we have a quiet pattern and not getting pounded by storms every other day.  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

How is there fog near the Sound and sunny weather in the foothills?    Winter inversion.   Its pretty common when we have a quiet pattern and not getting pounded by storms every other day.  

And in typical Tim fashion the answer was very literal!! I love it.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

And in typical Tim fashion the answer was very literal!! I love it.

I was going to mention that we have not seen this set up at all this fall and winter because it never stops raining.    Just used that post to mention it,  

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, gusky said:

Was thinking about that earlier. Krakatoa circulated every 34 hrs; if this holds true for this one than we'll see it again around 2-4 in the afternoon tomorrow.

Would it be like that boom in Russia that shattered windows several years back?

[MossMan]

We joined the soup this afternoon, was glorious earlier in the day. 

[Deweydog]

Another sub-50 day at PDX!

Thanks mild/moderate/major volcano blowy up thingy!

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Would it be like that boom in Russia that shattered windows several years back?

That would be exciting. I haven't heard many reports of people hearing the shockwave in WA, though pressure spike was easily detectable.

[RentonHill]

End of 18z GEFS