PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[RentonHill]

CMCE stopped getting worse

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

CMCE stopped getting worse

Baffin Bertha running the SHOW!

[Phishy Wx]

reverse shock wave just went through DC/Phil's House

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I hadn't noticed until now... but the ECMWF is quite wet for this coming week with rain each day after tomorrow. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Could be more eruptions in the coming weeks or years... of course that would be awful for the Tonga region.

Given that it was a phreatic (steam flash) eruption, water vapor proportions were higher than that of what you'd expect to see at Pinatubo. Ironically the phreatic nature of the eruption is probably what made it much more violent than if it were completely above surface. Probably not going to see much of a climate impact as is. I'd guess a VEI of ~4, but data is preliminary and the situation is developing. We'll see how much unrest remains at the Hunga Tonga volcano in the coming weeks.

Was there actually large areas of >100DU within Pinatubo’s plume? Can’t find the data right now, but I don’t remember it being that high? 

[RentonHill]

End of GEFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

End of GEFS

I got a feeling February will deliver. #Februarytoremember #MBG

[Phil]

Worth noting areal extent of Tonga’s plume is actually slightly larger than Pinatubo’s. So there must be substantially less SO2 in the plume if Pinatubo’s was averaging 100+DU.

Not sure why that would be. Suppose it’s a question for a volcanologist to answer.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Worth noting areal extent of Tonga’s plume is actually slightly larger than Pinatubo’s. So there must be substantially less SO2 in the plume if Pinatubo’s was averaging 100+DU.

Not sure why that would be. That’s a question for a volcanologist to answer.

Underwater volcano... so lots of water vapor and steam in that plume?

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

reverse shock wave just went through DC/Phil's House

 

 

Picked it up on my weather station.  

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2022-01-16/2022-01-16/daily

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Underwater volcano... so lots of water vapor and steam in that plume?

But so was Krakatoa.

And even Pinatubo to an extent (the big eruption occurred while a typhoon was directly overhead, dumping lots of rain into the caldera).

Maybe something geologic there? Or perhaps the SO2 mass will end up higher than preliminary estimates suggest.

[gusky]

Seeing that timing for the westward wave coming to the PS is around 12-12:30am. I'll be up to watch for it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

It is.

Connecticut and parts north always have good to great winters. A few duds, sure, but “there’s always next year” is taken seriously. 

My gf has family in Buffalo which would have a lot of lake effect snow….However, I love the west coast to much to move from it. If I ever moved east, I would probably move to Portugal. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My gf has family in Buffalo which would have a lot of lake effect snow….However, I love the west coast to much to move from it. If I ever moved east, I would probably move to Portugal. 

Not much snow there...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Krakatoa produced the loudest sound ever heard on Earth... and a tsunami with 100+ foot waves.   Actually shattering ear drums of people miles away and washing entire villages off the map.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/the-loudest-sound-ever-heard

Can't imagine that kind of catastrophe... this was very tame by comparison and still very impressive.

The dynamics of tsunamis are a bit more complicated. The topography of the sea floor and underwater landslides play a large role. There's likely still a significant chance this could lead to underwater landslides triggering even larger waves. I think the case of Krakatoa there was a substantial underwater landslide in the direction of a very close island.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My gf has family in Buffalo which would have a lot of lake effect snow….However, I love the west coast to much to move from it. If I ever moved east, I would probably move to Portugal. 

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

We’re very delicate lifeforms living on a massive unstable rock. Things will occasionally progress accordingly, despite horrific human outcomes. It’s a reminder that really, we’re not that special. Some people’s sense of humor and irony persist in spite of it, some people’s don’t. Neither are wrong, in my opinion.

Also no one in Tonga lost their life from this volcano according to news from the islands (yet?).  None that they know of yet.  So no Tongan's were lost.  According to the paper, residents they talked to said that no one even noticed any significant tidal differences anywhere on the island chain.  News outlets from outside of Tonga are reporting "possible" devastation to the island, but from within Tonga, their news outlets say the exact opposite.  So I guess we will find out with some time.  The biggest reported wave was just over 3 feet from blast on the shores of the capital city in Tonga... so it wasn't much.

None the less, thoughts and prayers to all.

I've been following their newspaper here.  

https://matangitonga.to

Also incredible photos from them.

More Photos Of Explosion

 

 

Something not talked about in the media, and something that can give us hope is that Tonga seem's to have been well aware the volcano was close to blowing.  This Tweet from a few day before the explosion shows they were already warning citizens to prepare just incase. (Last photo)

 

[Meatyorologist]

Good news

[RentonHill]

EPS says no retro but maybe some sort of north south knockoff tbd

[gusky]

Next wave just hit.

[gusky]

Preliminary 1.5mb drop from the spike. About .3mb lower than the first spike-to-dip. Seems to suggest there's still plenty of energy left to circulate the globe again. Thoughts?

[gusky]

Alright, final count is 1.9mb down from the spike. That's only .3 less than the first round of the shockwave. How can it possibly maintain that much energy after going around the world once? There should be more than enough left to do it again

[Skagit Weather]

Yep, just got the second wave here. Although magnitude is definitely a bit diminished. When I was looking at stations earlier today it seemed to me that observing locations that were inland (expecially with respect to the direction of travel) tended to see a smaller magnitude change in pressure. I didn't study that in depth, but perhaps being more exposed to the ocean, which has minimal terrain to dampen the effect, leads to a larger signal. Of course I believe this is a whole atmosphere wave so any terrain doesn't seem like it should significantly inhibit the wave's movement, but...

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yep, just got the second wave here. Although magnitude is definitely a bit diminished. When I was looking at stations earlier today it seemed to me that observing locations that were inland (expecially with respect to the direction of travel) tended to see a smaller magnitude change in pressure. I didn't study that in depth, but perhaps being more exposed to the ocean, which has minimal terrain to dampen the effect, leads to a larger signal. Of course I believe this is a whole atmosphere wave so any terrain doesn't seem like it should significantly inhibit the wave's movement, but...

It did diminish a bit, but 0.3mb loss seemed like WAY less of a loss than I was suspecting.

[Geos]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Krakatoa produced the loudest sound ever heard on Earth... and a tsunami with 100+ foot waves.   Actually shattering ear drums of people miles away and washing entire villages off the map.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/the-loudest-sound-ever-heard

Can't imagine that kind of catastrophe... this was very tame by comparison and still very impressive.

I remember doing a report on Krakatoa back in high school for a earth sciences class. That is an eruption that you don't see very often.  Thanks for the link.

[Geos]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Worth noting areal extent of Tonga’s plume is actually slightly larger than Pinatubo’s. So there must be substantially less SO2 in the plume if Pinatubo’s was averaging 100+DU.

Not sure why that would be. Suppose it’s a question for a volcanologist to answer.

 

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Underwater volcano... so lots of water vapor and steam in that plume?

Well I am not a Volcanologist, but I do have a geology degree. 

From all indications; given the volcano is just underneath the surface, magma rushed to the surface and hit the colder seawater and boom! Water gets superheated into steam instantly, then there's expansion and it's basically like a nuclear bomb going off. So yes, a lot of that was steam and water vapor. I'm betting the waters around that volcano right now are on the acidic side. 

[Geos]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Preliminary 1.5mb drop from the spike. About .3mb lower than the first spike-to-dip. Seems to suggest there's still plenty of energy left to circulate the globe again. Thoughts?

Yeah, I think there is enough energy circulating the globe still. 

[RentonHill]

6z GFS teases some “wrong hole!!” Action around the 27th and some ensemble members pick up on it. Lots of time for that to change. 

[Meatyorologist]

22 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

For shitss and gigs i made the "hell year", a year where every day of the year meets its warmest day on record at the Federal Building in DT Sea.

Jan: 54.6 (prev 47.1 in 1953)

Feb: 56.1 (prev 50.6 in 1968)

Mar: 58.3 (prev 53.1 in 1941)

Apr: 64.5 (prev 56.5 in 1934)

May: 71.4 (prev 62.2 in 1958)

Jun: 76.5 (prev 67.1 in 2015)

Jul: 79.2 (prev 70.9 in 2015)

Aug: 76.9 (prev 70.5 in 1967)

Sep: 71.9 (prev 66.3 in 1967)

Oct: 64.5 (prev 58.6 in 2014)

Nov: 58.0 (prev 51.9 in 1899)

Dec: 55.3 (prev 47.9 in 1950)

Annual: 65.6 (prev 56.2 in 1958)

@TT-SEA enjoy

Okay so I also completed the opposite of the hell year. Same premise as before except coldest daily records. Also at the Federal Building in DT

Bask in its glory...

Jan: 20.4 (prev 28.7 in 1950)

Feb: 25.9 (prev 36.2 in 1929)

Mar: 33.5 (prev 40.2 in 1897)

Apr: 40.6 (prev 45.6 in 1920)

May: 46.1 (prev 51.5 in 1899)

Jun: 51.6 (prev 57.0 in 1911)

Jul: 56.1 (prev 60.7 in 1909)

Aug: 56.2 (prev 60.2 in 1910)

Sep: 50.9 (prev 55.8 in 1895)

Oct: 42.7 (prev 48.5 in 1919)

Nov: 28.2 (prev 37.3 in 1985)

Dec: 22.2 (prev 36.3 in 1909)

Annual: 39.5 (prev 49.2 in 1916) <--- this one's wild

#lockitin

[The Blob]

Got this great pic of the clouds on the way home

[Tyler Mode]

Maybe the next inversion will be colder?  This one is pea-soup and 37-42 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

But so was Krakatoa.

And even Pinatubo to an extent (the big eruption occurred while a typhoon was directly overhead, dumping lots of rain into the caldera).

Maybe something geologic there? Or perhaps the SO2 mass will end up higher than preliminary estimates suggest.

Not sure about the details of past eruptions.... but was able to find that Krakatoa was an island with an elevation of around 1,500-2,000 feet before it was destroyed by the explosion.   

I doubt rain over Pinatubo would be the same as an explosion under the ocean... or even remotely close.    Here is a pic of Pinatubo during the main explosion.  There does not seem to be a way that rain was significantly interfering with that plume.

[TT-SEA]

Fog rolled in here yesterday evening... but its completely clear this morning and frosty.  

[FroYoBro]

Thankfully my location was spared from a terrifying freeze. Still 36 degrees. 

[BLI snowman]

Models are at C-SPAN levels of excitement still....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fog rolling in. 

[MossMan]

It’s still coming! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with 46/36 yesterday some afternoon sun lots of low clouds and fog too 36 and low clouds this morning 

[RentonHill]

37 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Models are at C-SPAN levels of excitement still....

Bruh didn’t you see my post?? There’s one ensemble member that gets below -10 850 in the clown range!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Finished Friday with a 50/40 spread and 44/40 yesterday. Had a good time out on Anderson foggy the whole time but pretty mild still. Just waiting to get on the ferry off the island now.