PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Chewbacca Defense]

43 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

PSA: It’s not fun out here. Stay home people. https://t.co/fEo8H4NqZY

BULLSH*T!!!!!  that looks like an absolute BLAST!!!!!!  Silly CBC reporter!

[Phishy Wx]

Snow country east coasters hate winter, that's why they all retire to FL and the Carolina coast

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Snow country east coasters hate winter, that's why they all retire to FL and the Carolina coast

Hating snow and cold in the winter seems so foreign to me. One thing is for sure…The John Deere lawn tractor group I am a part of, the East coasters were really weenieing out big time with the late start to winter over there. They kept posting pics of their machine with either the plow or the snow blower attachment ready to go but with no snow to move. They were extremely jealous of my post in late December!! Now they are in heaven pushing and blowing snow. Hopefully they will be sad again come February. 

[AlTahoe]

January's that have had 8" of precip or more in Tahoe City since 1990

1993, 1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000

2017,2019

What the hell happened to Jan? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS would end January with some snow up here. Currently a gloomy 42 in Salem. 

[RentonHill]

18z gives us a nice dickblast to the face

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z gives us a nice dickblast to the face

 

It wants to go backdoor, but that ridge is getting smushed a little. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It wants to go backdoor, but that ridge is getting smushed a little. 

12z was able to tuck that trough underneath for a Kona Low which helped force the backdoor. 18z misses the kona low which leaves that opening 

[Tyler Mode]

First time seeing the sun at home since WEDNESDAY! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS seems reasonable. Let's scour the ensembles for improvement. 

[RentonHill]

Heres back half of the 18z GFS

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Another sure sign of a cold and snowy February is a beautiful MLK Day.   Just took my daughter and our 15-year old dog to the park in North Bend and it was gorgeous out there.    I swear it's been like this on MLK Day several times in the last few years.  And winter always comes back.

Good to see that your neighbor has not shot your dog! 

[Omegaraptor]

February - cold/dry

March - cold/dry

April - warm/dry

May - warm/dry

June - hot/dry

July - hot/dry

August - hot/dry

[LowerGarfield]

8 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Some snow was falling after midnight. New report shows 5.0" in downtown Ashland, I ended up with 4". 

Treasure it. To paraphrase the SEC, "It just means more." Pretty nice!

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2017 was pretty decent too. Had that Super Bowl Sunday snow event in W. Washington, and was very wet and coolish in NW Oregon. Broke 1996 for wettest February on record at Salem. We had quite a bit of snow at the end of the month with cold onshore flow. So really 2017 started the party. 

That was a really fun event. I think I've mentioned it before but I was supposed to go to a job interview in Fargo, ND from Everett that Saturday via the Empire Builder train but it was delayed several hours due to a mechanical issue so I had to cancel. Would have been fun to live in such a snowy place. Then we stayed in Mt Vernon at one of the Best Westerns and spent two days/nights  watching the snow fall hard. That train ended up getting stuck near Glacier Ntl Park for a few days and then went back to Spokane so I would have missed the event in W. WA. It worked out just fine in the end for me.

There's still snow on the hills south of Spokane but it becomes more sparse south of Colfax. Still was hovering near freezing when my flight got into GEG this am.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It wants to go backdoor, but that ridge is getting smushed a little. 

The dickblast is going backdoor? 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

February - very cold/wet

March - cold/wet

April - warm/wet

May - warm/dry

June - cool/wet

July - warm/dry

August - cool/wet

Fixed it for you. 

[RentonHill]

Model trend over last 3 days for hour 306 on GEFS. 

[RentonHill]

GEFS is starting to figure things out. Looks like our blast is actually going to come from the south. Good for OR folks, but the Antarctic front will probably stall around Olympia. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GEFS 1/31 04z: -0.9C

18z GFS   1/31 04z: -2.6C

Ensemble improvement. 

[TT-SEA]

Good information about the Tonga eruption from a professor of volcanology in New Zealand.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/17/opinions/tonga-volcano-eruption-tsunami-lessons/index.html

His research says this was a thousand year event for that particular volcano.   He also mentioned that since the major explosion and collapse of the top of the volcano, the caldera is now underwater and subsequent activity has been occurring below the surface of the water and sending out occasional tsunamis towards neighboring islands.    That is why we are seeing reports of additional eruptions with no visible sign of it happening.  Fascinating stuff.

First, let's look at the eruption. Events of this magnitude occur roughly once a decade around the world, but for this volcano an eruption of this scale is a rarity. Based on my research, using radiocarbon dating to examine the ash and deposits from past eruptions, it seems this latest eruption is a once-in-a-millennium event for the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai volcano.

It takes roughly 900-1000 years for the Hunga volcano to fill up with magma, which cools and starts to crystallize, producing large amounts of gas pressure inside the magma. As gases start to build up pressure, the magma becomes unstable. Think of it like putting too many bubbles into a champagne bottle -- eventually, the bottle will break.

[RentonHill]

Comparing 12z EPS vs 18z GEFS at hour 336 (Jan 31)

[RentonHill]

18z vs 12z GEFS at 00z Feb 1 (hr 342)

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z vs 12z GEFS at 00z Feb 1 (hr 342)

Ensembles continue to improve.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z gives us a nice dickblast to the face

 

it's coming

[dtwenty7]

I think maybe this is why our local television Meteorologists have trouble forecasting weather.. They’re not aware that the sun rises in the east, and sets in the west.. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a high of 44 at SLE today... Trying to avoid another January with an average high of 50+.

[RentonHill]

gotta go pick up my son at daycare so here is the end of GEFS minus the last two frames. better! transition TBD but seems like backdoor is less and less likely. 

 

[The Swamp]

No SE ridge = No bueno

[MossMan]

38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

gotta go pick up my son at daycare so here is the end of GEFS minus the last two frames. better! transition TBD but seems like backdoor is less and less likely. 

 

Please NO backdoor action…North to south is where it’s at!! At least for my backyard!! 

[BLI snowman]

January started out pretty cold with a subfreezing high here. Would be funny if the 31st is also really cold with all of the crap in the middle.

[NWbyNW]

Today was fog on the water.  Heavy, thick, fog.  But not thick enough that it shrouded ships in mystery.  You could see them very well.  But it was murky today.  Away from the bay, skies were blue or partly cloudy and pleasant.  47F was a high. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

41/35 today with afternoon sun and the fog bank hanging just to our south another nice wintery day 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The producer of this video thinks it was a VEI 4 eruption, by the way (and explains why he thinks so in the video).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

January started out pretty cold with a subfreezing high here. Would be funny if the 31st is also really cold with all of the crap in the middle.

This very nice ridge is not “crap.”

[The Blob]

I don't think it got sunny today, I can't be sure since I fell asleep. 

[TT-SEA]

On 1/15/2022 at 11:39 AM, Phil said:

The sound of Tim’s summer dreams going up in ash.

 

 

You spoke too soon.   

[gusky]

22 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The producer of this video thinks it was a VEI 4 eruption, by the way (and explains why he thinks so in the video).

I subscribed yesterday, good content

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I think the lack of a SE ridge is a good sign the bulk of the cold air will slide east. Of course we are talking about something about two weeks out. A lot could change. Seems like the ensembles are starting to hit on something though. Maybe not arctic, but could still be decent for many. 

[Skier B]

Snapped this picture out of my window while driving through the outskirts of Ellensburg.  Temps were a chilly 25F at 10:30 AM.  Less than an hour later Snoqualmie Pass was at 39F.