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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12 GFS...

drunk burger GIF by Leroy Patterson

We'll have to scour the ensembles for good news. It is still a step down the road to a good direction. Pretty soon though the lowlands are going to start running out of time...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z GEFS at Day 10 vs 6z GEFS - we are probably at the "delay" stage now that some long term cold signal has been picked up. Models will start picking up more details on the transition and it will extend the time until actual cold 🤷‍♂️

image.thumb.png.411d23a5f81302e354413e0863b8c296.png

 

Go out to Jan 30th, the timing is actually moved up.

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12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

back half of 12z GEFS

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1642507200-1643155200-1643889600-10.gif

Just compared to this time last week…it’s a pretty massive improvement. A week ago there was nothing at all on the ensembles even at 300+ hours. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We'll have to scour the ensembles for good news. It is still a step down the road to a good direction. Pretty soon though the lowlands are going to start running out of time...

Usually I consider February 14th to be the cutoff date. If there’s nothing on the models by mid February it’s time to bring out the forks. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Usually I consider February 14th to be the cutoff date. If there’s nothing on the models by mid February it’s time to bring out the forks. 

That’s a good rule of thumb. We have had some good stuff in late February in recent years. Going back to 2011, we’ve had major lowland cold/snow events in late February 3 times. But chances are if the models in mid February show nothing then it’s time to pack it in. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s a good rule of thumb. We have had some good stuff in late February in recent years. Going back to 2011, we’ve had major lowland cold/snow events in late February 3 times. But chances are if the models in mid February show nothing then it’s time to pack it in. 

February 2011 and 2018 were pretty decent events especially 2011. Pretty hard to get a below freezing high temp that late in the season. 30/25 here on 2/25 and 32/22 on 2/26. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Last subfreezing high here in March was in 1960. Probably almost dew....

Lol hard for me to imagine getting a sub freezing high in March nowadays. Have recorded a couple days in March with high temps of 37. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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45.5, .03", and maybe the slightest hint of Covid symptoms.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol hard for me to imagine getting a sub freezing high in March nowadays. Have recorded a couple days in March with high temps of 37. 

I had a 36 degree high on 3/6/19. Coldest since 1989.

Only March events that I'm aware of that have had subfreezing highs here are 1865, 1867, 1870, 1896, 1906, and 1960. So a pretty select list. Probably will happen again someday but it could be decades.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I had a 36 degree high on 3/6/19. Coldest since 1989.

Only March events that I'm aware of that have had subfreezing highs here are 1865, 1867, 1870, 1896, 1906, and 1960. So a pretty select list. Probably will happen again someday but it could be decades.

That day was 37/32 here with a trace of snow not too bad for March. considering we were just a couple days off from a March sub freezing high 11 years ago it definitely is still possible. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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And it doesn’t appear that we will have to wait as long as we did in 2011 or 2018! The first ALERT didn’t happen until 2/6/18! Things looked bleak that first week of February. 

004CF9F1-4D4A-471D-BF53-7ACF63A4AD6C.jpeg

36008748-91E7-4D24-9014-8D863CBCC4E6.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12z CFS delivers a fairly significant arctic blast the first week of February. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Today reminds me of the pain that myself, acerJake, and Tim had to endure for weeks straight in January/First part of February 2018. Endless drizzly goo. We were rewarded for all of our whining though!! 😀

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Doesn't get much better than this 15 days out.

It's coming®

1198128246_ScreenShot2022-01-18at12_53_57PM.thumb.png.1c0b54151b18ef366a944ebc5fdcbd3f.png

1762685733_ScreenShot2022-01-18at12_56_03PM.thumb.png.02d6db73250082102b9cfbde278b28e8.png

Unbelievably this reminds me of shades of 2019. Only this time the bulk of the winter preceding it hasn't been a dumpster fire.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Sub-freezing highs are very rare up here even though March snow is very common. Sub-40 highs are very common though. Looks like you have to go all the way back to March 2015 to find the last time Silver Falls did not have a sub-40 high in March. Coldest high I can find since then was 33 on 3/6/17. Also recorded 8" of snow in the park that day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Unbelievably this reminds me of shades of 2019. Only this time the bulk of the winter preceding it hasn't been a dumpster fire.

This winter hasn’t been a torch at all. December finished -2.1 here and we’re  only +0.3 for January right now. Not to mention one of the best winter events in the 21st century last month. With the inversion pattern likely dominating the rest of the month we can definitely pull off our coldest January since 2017…not saying much though since they’ve all torched in recent years. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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