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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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23 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

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Lots of troughy action of varying degrees with most of those. Some kind of eh but at least a backdoor arctic intrusion seems like a pretty common theme. 

Mid to late January 1954 was epic from PDX-north, late January 1957 was massive, January 1962 had the backdoor event and then the big arctic event (snow in San Francisco!), early February 1976 had a backdoor arctic airmass (more snow in San Francisco!), February 1981 had a modest retrogression, early February 1982 had a backdoor airmass, February 1995 had the big mid month event, mid February 2006 had the big backdoor airmass, and late Januaries 2008 and 2009 both had some snow/cold with some backdoor chill.

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I need to know if Matt is fully on board.   He called the late December cold and snow WAAAAAY in advance and pretty much nailed it.   

Eh, me thinks things didn't turn out quite like he expected it to. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Lots of troughy action of varying degrees with most of those. Some kind of eh but at least a backdoor arctic intrusion seems like a pretty common theme. 

Mid to late January 1954 was epic from PDX-north, late January 1957 was massive, January 1962 had the backdoor event and then the big arctic event (snow in San Francisco!), early February 1976 had a backdoor arctic airmass (more snow in San Francisco!), February 1981 had a modest retrogression, early February 1982 had a backdoor airmass, February 1995 had the big mid month event, mid February 2006 had the big backdoor airmass, and late Januaries 2008 and 2009 both had some snow/cold with some backdoor chill.

 

How...do you remember these things?? Impressive!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

How...do you remember these things?? Impressive!

noaa nowdata. has climate data for every listed station

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

BD404865-FFCE-4FF6-8F0D-8A1DFFC3E0DB.png

8A5370DF-71EE-4711-971E-AB5A4D6D3841.png

It’s a start...

The trends are good if you like snow in my corner but still a good ways out. But trends overall seem to point in the right direction from the models posted here.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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4 hours ago, MossMan said:

This winter is currently at a B+ for me. Has slipped a bit due to the typical January doldrums. If we get a lovely few day event we will be back in the A- category, if we get a week long extravaganza then that will upgrade to an A! If we have a February/March 2019 redux then we are looking at A+ territory! However if we just continue with this crapfest January like weather into the spring then I will go as low as a B. 

If the El Nino years ahead are bad, do you ever grade on a curve? Or do you rate each year in isolation on it's own merits? I.e. do you give an El Nino with an average event for your location a higher grade than the exact same thing for a La Nina or neutral year? There's no right or wrong reason but it's fun hearing your methodology.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

If the El Nino years ahead are bad, do you ever grade on a curve? Or do you rate each year in isolation on it's own merits? I.e. do you give an El Nino with an average event for your location a higher grade than the exact same thing for a La Nina or neutral year? There's no right or wrong reason but it's fun hearing your methodology.

That is an excellent question, I do not think about ENSO when grading but perhaps I should from now on. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Think I joined the not-so-exclusive Corona Club...man hit me like a bus last night!  Massive headache, and bad fever.  Didn't even feel safe driving today so lethargic. 

Sounds like the flu. Feel better soon, Tyler! Rest, lots of fluids, or well do whatever you feel comfortable doing.

00z GFS in 1 hour 24 minutes

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5 hours ago, MossMan said:

This winter is currently at a B+ for me. Has slipped a bit due to the typical January doldrums. If we get a lovely few day event we will be back in the A- category, if we get a week long extravaganza then that will upgrade to an A! If we have a February/March 2019 redux then we are looking at A+ territory! However if we just continue with this crapfest January like weather into the spring then I will go as low as a B. 

I basically agree with your grade of B+ although the shear quantity of snow we've had might bump it up to an A-, especially following the active fall. To get an "A" grade a winter must have two snow events unless it was a multi-week extravaganza like December 2008 or January 1950.

For me what determines each grade:

  • (A) At least two arctic outbreaks with 12"+ of snow on the winter. A+ needs to have at least 7 days of subfreezing highs, a low in the single digits, 24"+ of snow, and at least one sunny day with snow on the ground
  • (B) Any somewhat extended arctic outbreak with 6-8"+ of snow on the winter. Should be at least a day or two of subfreezing highs and snow on the ground should last for at least two days. More active weather (windstorms, extreme precipitation, good mountain snows) can bump this up to a B+.
  • (C) Any winter with 3-4"+ of snow. On the upper end of this scale might be a low snow winter with good mountain snows or minimal snow with an extended arctic blast.
  • (D) Any winter with 1-3" of snow and above average monthly temperatures. This is less than half our annual average and makes for a pretty depressing winter.
  • (F) Less than an inch of snow and no arctic outbreak.

For me it doesn't matter what the state of the atmosphere is, but I may be *slightly* more lenient if I had low expectations to start with. I can't remember every event of the last 12 years, but here's how I would grade the years since 2008 based on my memory.

(A+): 2008-09 (30" of snow is hard to beat, white Christmas, week of subfreezing highs, and 2 degree low)
(A): 2010-11 (21" of snow, cold Nov event with okay snow, late Feb was incredible and it just kept snowing through march, also ridiculous mountain snows)
(A-): 2021-22 (17" of snow, one more snow event could easily push this up), 2018-19 (11.5" of snow, I wasn't here for Feb so I might be biased)
(B+): 2020-21 (10.5" of snow, had to wait the entire winter for Feb)
(B): 2016-17 (8.0" of snow, cold Jan bumps this one up), 2011-12 (9.5" of snow, Jan was okay although I was mostly too far north)
(B-): 2019-20 (11" of snow, great Jan event, but did not make up for the torching)
(C+): 2013-14 (6.2" of snow, but so much 33º rain at the end of Feb when just to my north was getting buried)
(D): 2009-10 (0.5" of snow, the only thing that saves this from a failing grade is Dec 2009), 2017-18 (0.9" of snow, threat of snow on Christmas made this kind of exciting even if it didn't happen)
(F): 2015-16 (0.25" of snow, nothing notable), 2014-15 (0.0" of snow, couldn't tell you what happened this year)

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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FWIW, even though stratospheric SO2 emission was only 0.05Tg (likely too low to affect global temperature) it will still likely impact the general circulation, with further warming of the tropical stratosphere likely heading into summer 2022.

The tropical/subtropical stratosphere is already anomalously warm given current point in QBO cycle, and this will likely perpetuate that anomaly.

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Size of Tonga ash cloud vs St. Helens.

Not even close.

 

38EF3DFA-D591-46FD-A886-8C3422DC3BBB.jpeg

Immense amount of steam and water vapor with Tonga eruption.    They said Tonga would not have been anywhere near as explosive if it was totally over land like St. Helens or Pinatubo. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, even though stratospheric SO2 emission was only 0.05Tg (likely too low to affect global temperature) it will still likely impact the general circulation, with further warming of the tropical stratosphere likely heading into summer 2022.

The tropical/subtropical stratosphere is already anomalously warm given current point in QBO cycle, and this will likely perpetuate that anomaly.

Does this impact ENSO?    And are we in +QBO or -QBO right now?   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

Think I joined the not-so-exclusive Corona Club...man hit me like a bus last night!  Massive headache, and bad fever.  Didn't even feel safe driving today so lethargic. 

I feel like I'm tetering on the edge of a mild case.

I've had a slight headache for the last 60 hours or so, on and off, some chest congestion, and periods where my throat seems like it's about to be sore.

Overall I feel fine energy wise, but something just ain't right.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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2 hours ago, jakeinthevalley said:

You know it's boring as Hell when NWS PDX has no watches or warnings on their home page.......in mid January??!!

Would have liked to have at least seen a gratuitous air stagnation advisory for today.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was thinking the same thing when I read Phil's post actually. With all the talk about developing El Nino, will this contribute either way?

He intentionally leaves us hanging.   Or assumes we can connect dots that we can't.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

noaa nowdata. has climate data for every listed station

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate

Oh I know where to find it. But trust me, he knows these things right off the top of his head which never ceases to amaze me.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Well.... I couldn't do it for your area but I guess it goes without saying that most of those were pretty friggin' cold there!

Yeah they were! Especially the Jan 1962 event. When PDX scores this area tends to score as well so it's a win win!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1-17-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 49* recorded at 2:16 pm
Low temp - 38* recorded at 6:16 am

New precip - 0.00"
2nd 
consecutive dry day
January 2022 precip to date - 10.28"
We have received 131% of our normal January precip with 55% of the month completed

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 snow to date - 10.9"

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Just now, Jginmartini said:

Miserable 47* drippy day 

.03 and 6.96 for the month 

This rainy spell doesn't bother me so much... coming off a sunny weekend here and another sunny weekend ahead.    Different story closer to the Sound last weekend and probably this coming weekend again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This rainy spell doesn't bother me so much... coming off a sunny weekend here and another sunny weekend ahead.    Different story closer to the Sound last weekend and probably this coming weekend again.  

I'm happy about it. Might mix out the inversion.

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Immense amount of steam and water vapor with Tonga eruption.    They said Tonga would not have been anywhere near as explosive if it was totally over land like St. Helens or Pinatubo. 

Same goes for Krakatoa. Water could be an important ingredient for these massive explosions.

With the stratosphere already in a quasi-volcanic state following the Taal eruption and the Australian firestorms (note the warmth in the subtropical stratosphere in spite of -QBO/Erly shear @ 50mb), I the suspect the Tonga eruption will only push things farther in that direction.

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Does this impact ENSO?    And are we in +QBO or -QBO right now?   

In theory it could but research on any relationship(s) there is still in the embryonic stages.

Currently in -QBO. Will likely see inception of downwelling westerly shear this summer.

I think we’re well positioned for an El Niño transition this year. Or, at the very least, a transition out of the La Niña base state. Could be we end up with a moderate or strong El Niño next winter, followed by another multiyear Niña.

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54 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, even though stratospheric SO2 emission was only 0.05Tg (likely too low to affect global temperature) it will still likely impact the general circulation, with further warming of the tropical stratosphere likely heading into summer 2022.

The tropical/subtropical stratosphere is already anomalously warm given current point in QBO cycle, and this will likely perpetuate that anomaly.

What would this mean for our tangible weather here?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What would this mean for our tangible weather here?

I’m not sure yet. I think the effect will be state-dependent. And that’s not even considering seasonality.

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This rainy spell doesn't bother me so much... coming off a sunny weekend here and another sunny weekend ahead.    Different story closer to the Sound last weekend and probably this coming weekend again.  

Weekend was sad down here by the Sound with fog….Monday afternoon was nice though at least for a bit.  Clouds were really fascinating !!!

1BF4CCEC-2613-4812-B319-2011A6209F8E.png

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