PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Just a reminder I guess of what we already know.  10-17% chance of the 'Big One' in the next 50 years

 

https://www.dnr.wa.gov/news/new-study-details-tsunami-impacts-magnitude-90-earthquake-olympic-peninsula

The chances on the Seattle fault are probably a lot higher than that since we are already way overdue for that type of quake.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS is really jumping on a cold wave in early Feb now.  Still a chance it could get started this month.

[MossMan]

Jim’s back!!! It’s getting real now! 

[Loniu7]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not prepared. I will admit that. I just hope it doesn't happen in my lifetime. 

I was on pier 54 when the Nisqually earthquake occurred.  Ivars corp offices are at the end of the pier behind the restaurant.  All I remembered from childhood earthquake drills in California,  was either move to a doorway.  I was standing near. I told the receptionist to get under her desk. 

We had auditors at the time , that were completely scared. Barreling through me and immediately ran outside off the pier. Towards the viaduct.  

I stayed, decided to take my chances on a pilings, than the viaduct crashing down.  

Had I been at my desk, I would have been crushed by shelving in my office.  

I cant imagine what a 5.5 or greater will do to Seattle. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m guessing you have a very dry cough. 

Inside forum joke? I don’t follow. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Honestly a lot more likely we see a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake or a volcano in the next 50 years. Cascadia subduction zone is always a threat but it could be 200 years before another one happens. 

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was dry when I walked down to the waterfront. Hopefully we can get some sun at times with the inversion pattern. 

The models would seem to indicate we will based on the low temps being shown, but I wouldn't hold my breath.  I do think this will be colder than the last inversion because the setup leading into it will be more favorable.

[TacomaWaWx]

49/41 here today drizzling a bit right now. 

[Phishy Wx]

just noticing the 18z Druncle clown cold

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Honestly a lot more likely we see a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake or a volcano in the next 50 years. Cascadia subduction zone is always a threat but it could be 200 years before another one happens. 

Yeah...I was just thinking a Nisqually type quake happens about once every 50 years on average.  They do say the Seattle fault quake is probably the one to really worry about for Puget Sound residents.

If you want to ponder a really high impact event just think if Rainier blows like Mount Mazama did.  In truth it has potential for an even bigger eruption than that was.  Absolutely no telling when or if that will happen though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I was just thinking a Nisqually type quake happens about once every 50 years on average.  They do say the Seattle fault quake is probably the one to really worry about for Puget Sound residents.

If you want to ponder a really high impact event just think if Rainier blows like Mount Mazama did.  In truth it has potential for an even bigger eruption than that was.  Absolutely no telling when or if that will happen though.

We’re probably overdue for some type of earthquake even like a magnitude 5 or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a magnitude 7 or one of the volcanoes in WA or OR has an eruption in the next 50 years though. 

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Loniu7 said:

I was on pier 54 when the Nisqually earthquake occurred.  Ivars corp offices are at the end of the pier behind the restaurant.  All I remembered from childhood earthquake drills in California,  was either move to a doorway.  I was standing near. I told the receptionist to get under her desk. 

We had auditors at the time , that were completely scared. Barreling through me and immediately ran outside off the pier. Towards the viaduct.  

I stayed, decided to take my chances on a pilings, than the viaduct crashing down.  

Had I been at my desk, I would have been crushed by shelving in my office.  

I cant imagine what a 5.5 or greater will do to Seattle. 

We have had a number greater than 5.5 in the recent past.  They think the Seattle fault quake will probably be a 7.5 and be very shallow.  We actually get three different types of quakes here.  The great subduction quakes are centered more to our west so it may not be as awful as some think it will be for Seattle.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I was just thinking a Nisqually type quake happens about once every 50 years on average.  They do say the Seattle fault quake is probably the one to really worry about for Puget Sound residents.

If you want to ponder a really high impact event just think if Rainier blows like Mount Mazama did.  In truth it has potential for an even bigger eruption than that was.  Absolutely no telling when or if that will happen though.

Rainier doesn't need a big eruption to have an enormous impact.  Just one big enough to melt all the glaciers and destroy many towns and potentially kill tens of thousands.

"Scientists estimate that debris flows can travel the distance between Mount Rainier and the Puget Sound lowland in as little as 30 minutes to a few hours. About 100,000 people now live in areas that have been buried by debris flows during the past few thousand years."

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-greatest-hazard-presented-mount-rainier

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Inside forum joke? I don’t follow. 

He was referring to the dry cough from COVID.  I'm here to tell you it's real.  At this point I am still dealing with fatigue and I got it just before Christmas.  Sometimes it feels like I took a handful of sleeping pills.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

He was referring to the dry cough from COVID.  I'm here to tell you it's real.  At this point I am still dealing with fatigue and I got it just before Christmas.  Sometimes it feels like I took a handful of sleeping pills.

I believe it was also a joke about Joshua's precipitation infatuation. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Rainier doesn't need a big eruption to have an enormous impact.  Just one big enough to melt all the glaciers and destroy many towns and potentially kill tens of thousands.

"Scientists estimate that debris flows can travel the distance between Mount Rainier and the Puget Sound lowland in as little as 30 minutes to a few hours. About 100,000 people now live in areas that have been buried by debris flows during the past few thousand years."

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-greatest-hazard-presented-mount-rainier

No doubt.  It is one scary mountain and considered to be one of the most dangerous in the world.  I do think it will have a grand finale like Mount Mazama did, but it's likely thousands of years away.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I believe it was also a joke about Joshua's precipitation infatuation. 

Could well be.

[BLI snowman]

Speaking of precip, warm front drizzle has been quite heavy all day here.  Up to 0.30" now on the day with mostly very low topped stuff. Overachiever!

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Jim’s back!!! It’s getting real now! 

I've been here on a limited basis for the last few days.  I needed to spend less time posting for a while.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

We were not competely either…Until about 2 or so years ago when I had gotten up in the middle of the night to pee, as I was peeing a big sharp thud/crack happened in the house and my legs started vibrating a bit. After that small earthquake my wife and I decided to get earthquake insurance. I already have a large emergency toat of supplies and whatnot just for a major natural disaster and I have instructed my wife and older daughter that if I am not at home and they are if/when  a big one hits is to go straight to the propane tank and shut the valve off even if they do not think there is any leak happening until I can check it out. Also to trip off the well pump breaker if they notice any water leaking. And of course if major structural issues with the house to stay out of it. 

See, this is stuff I would go after first after the earthquake. My first job was at a nursing home and it was really close to the San Andreas fault. Because I worked nights, the fire marshal would surprise us and do drills. I was the only one who knew where the gas and water mains were and what to do in an emergency.

[Phil]

Starting to notice higher sun angles already.

The death march into s**t season has begun. Hopefully volcanoes will save the day. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He was referring to the dry cough from COVID.  I'm here to tell you it's real.  At this point I am still dealing with fatigue and I got it just before Christmas.  Sometimes it feels like I took a handful of sleeping pills.

I’m sorry man, that really sucks.

So glad I didn’t have any of that long covid crap.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Starting to notice higher sun angles already.

The death march into s**t season has begun. Hopefully volcanoes will save the day. 

That's one nice thing about it here.  We have a pretty good stretch with very low angles.

[The Blob]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Starting to notice higher sun angles already.

The death march into s**t season has begun. Hopefully volcanoes will save the day. 

"Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!"

[Weiner Warrior]

Heard Seattle back on track for another foot of snow. Winter uncanceled.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m sorry man, that really sucks.

So glad I didn’t have any of that long covid crap.

In general I feel decent.  It's just that after a day at work I have to sleep for an hour or so.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of pre-niño years on there.

2022 will probably join that club.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

"Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!" "Heat Dome!"

We can bring back dome buster Josh if it comes to that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

A lot of pre-niño years on there.

2022 will probably join that club.

We'll have to see.  I hope we can at least maintain neutral.  This is a really great shot for being a cold year.  I would hate to blow it.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll have to see.  I hope we can at least maintain neutral.  This is a really great shot for being a cold year.  I would hate to blow it.

Yeah QBO/strat & in-situ PMM are aligned perfectly for a cool year in the PNW. But good chance ENSO screws it up now.

Tbh I’m skeptical we maintain any hint of -ENSO going into 2nd half of the year. Early indications are for a clean switch up (IMO). Could even be moderate or strong niño.

Not 100% certain of course, but looks that way to me.

[AlTahoe]

14 minutes ago, The Blob said:

See, this is stuff I would go after first after the earthquake. My first job was at a nursing home and it was really close to the San Andreas fault. Because I worked nights, the fire marshal would surprise us and do drills. I was the only one who knew where the gas and water mains were and what to do in an emergency.

I was home by myself in 6th grade during the Loma Prieta Earthquake. When I eventually made it to the front yard the gas line to the house was ruptured along with a bunch of neighbors houses. The main water pipe was also ruptured and flooding the streets. Luckily my older neighbor knew where the shut offs were for the gas and went around turning everyone's off.

I definitely know where they are located at my Tahoe house. Lol

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah QBO/strat & in-situ PMM are all aligned perfectly for a cool year in the PNW. But good chance ENSO screws it up now.

I’m very skeptical we maintain any hint of -ENSO going into 2nd half of the year. Early indications are for a clean switch up. Could even be moderate or strong niño.

Not 100% certain, but seems to be leaning increasingly in that direction, IMO. 

So far the CFS is holding strong on cold ENSO right through the summer, but the ECMWF goes warmish by then.  It is interesting to note that warm ENSO SST anoms have peaked in the summer in many recent years.  If we only go warm neutral or weak Nino during the summer we might trim it back to neutral for autumn and winter.

[AlTahoe]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Starting to notice higher sun angles already.

The death march into s**t season has begun. Hopefully volcanoes will save the day. 

Also known as Dream season in Lake Tahoe. Assuming were not being poisoned by wild fire smoke of course

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I tested positive on Monday. We're both pretty cool.

 

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m guessing you have a very dry cough. 

Key word   “Dry”  

Rain has eluded your area  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I was home by myself in 6th grade during the Loma Prieta Earthquake. When I eventually made it to the front yard the gas line to the house was ruptured along with a bunch of neighbors houses. The main water pipe was also ruptured and flooding the streets. Luckily my older neighbor knew where the shut offs were for the gas and went around turning everyone's off.

I definitely know where they are located at my Tahoe house. Lol

Scary suff.  There is no way to describe what it's really like to have the ground shake until you actually feel it.  We've had three that I have felt really strongly in my lifetime.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I was home by myself in 6th grade during the Loma Prieta Earthquake. When I eventually made it to the front yard the gas line to the house was ruptured along with a bunch of neighbors houses. The main water pipe was also ruptured and flooding the streets. Luckily my older neighbor knew where the shut offs were for the gas and went around turning everyone's off.

I definitely know where they are located at my Tahoe house. Lol

D**n that’d be a crazy experience by yourself at 6th grade. I was in 8th grade for the nisqually quake and I remember shutting my locker to go to lunch or next class or something when it started. Dove into the nearest classroom and under the desk and smashed my forehead on the desk as I went under. We lived in Palo alto for the 89 quake. I was 2 and my mom said she dropped me down the stairs when it happened but I was ok I guess besides some bruises. After that she told my dad we had to move because she wasn’t dealing with the narrow steep a** stairs in the old California homes anymore 

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

However... If it does happen, I am going to buy property out in the Florence area on the cheap in the aftermath. 

True, but you'd still have distant tsunamis to worry about.

But if you kept it in the family, you or your kids could sell the same property fifteen years later for a huge profit.

[LowerGarfield]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have had a number greater than 5.5 in the recent past.  They think the Seattle fault quake will probably be a 7.5 and be very shallow.  We actually get three different types of quakes here.  The great subduction quakes are centered more to our west so it may not be as awful as some think it will be for Seattle.

I think that report that said everything west of I-5 would be totalled would be overblown. Outside of the central and south sound, I-5 is quite inland and relatively protected.

 

I'd be a lot more concerned for our friends who still live in Clatsop County. There aren't many escape routes from the coast and it was always at the back of the minds of locals but you'd have tourists screwing it up for someone in a real emergency.

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

D**n that’d be a crazy experience by yourself at 6th grade. I was in 8th grade for the nisqually quake and I remember shutting my locker to go to lunch when it started. Dove into the nearest classroom and under the desk and smashed my forehead on the desk as I went under. We lived in Pablo alto for the 89 quake. I was 2 and my mom said she dropped me down the stairs when it happened but I was ok I guess besides some bruises. After that she told me dad we had to move because she wasn’t dealing with the narrow steep a** stairs in the old California homes anymore 

I love earthquakes. The last one I went through was the 7.0 Ridgecrest in 2019.