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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm watching the period around the 31st-3rd for snow levels in the 1000-1500' range, then I think after the 5th we see a 2nd go at it, that is the one with the bigger potential. 

What about the 4th??????

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What about the 4th??????

4Th Of July America GIF

Gonna be a cold one

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Wrong one... :(

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Scary suff.  There is no way to describe what it's really like to have the ground shake until you actually feel it.  We've had three that I have felt really strongly in my lifetime.

Yeah we had a 6.2 in my home town (Morgan Hill) in 1984 when I was in kindergarten. Then we had the 7.0 Loma Prieta in 1989. The epicenter was only 11 miles away. I would say that we had at least 15 5.0's or bigger as well growing up in Morgan Hill. We were sandwiched between the Calaveras Fault and the San Andreas Fault.

The evening after the Loma Prieta earthquake the ground was quivering almost continually, with aftershocks every 5 to 20 minutes. It was crazy.

We had an earthquake swarm here in Tahoe this summer that ended with a 6.0

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5 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I love earthquakes. The last one I went through was the 7.0 Ridgecrest in 2019.

I kind of agree with you and find earthquakes to be exciting as long as they are not too disruptive of course. I was riding in a work truck in Tacoma during the Nisqually quake and didn't feel a thing, kind of disappointed actually.  During another smaller quake I was on a ferry and of course had no idea one was occurring.  There have been other minor ones that somehow I never felt.  I tell people that if they want to be safe during a quake, just be with me 😃

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21 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 

Key word   “Dry”   😱😳😱

Rain has eluded your area :( 

Right over my head. Ha. If I had any symptoms, a dry cough would probably be one. 
 

Today has been surprisingly wet here. .44’’ in the bucket. Beautiful dark, dreary, dripping wet day. Moss and mushrooms happy as can be. Hopefully another .25’’ or so before we go dry for quite a while. 

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I remember a couple small earthquakes in my lifetime. Can’t remember the year but it’s was a 4.5 sometime early in the morning. Must’ve been 8 or 10 years ago. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1-18-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 50* recorded at 1:01 pm 🔥
Low temp - 41* recorded at 7:00 am

New precip - 0.00"
3rd 
consecutive dry day
January 2022 precip to date - 10.28"
We have received 131% of our normal January precip with 58% of the month completed

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 snow to date - 10.9"

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So far the CFS is holding strong on cold ENSO right through the summer, but the ECMWF goes warmish by then.  It is interesting to note that warm ENSO SST anoms have peaked in the summer in many recent years.  If we only go warm neutral or weak Nino during the summer we might trim it back to neutral for autumn and winter.

The CFS is a piece of garbage so that doesn’t surprise me in the least.

Of course there is time to avoid a niño. If the upcoming MJO leaves behind enough of an IO/MC low pass signature, that would slow the transition.

But guidance and analog pools generally agree on the continued orbit into the WPAC/WHEM later in February/into March, which is the climatological trigger point for El Niño inception (or the development of such, at least).

My updated odds for 2022/23:

Mod/strong niño: 50%
Weak niño/warm neutral: 40%
Cold neutral/niña: 10%

I could be full of s**t. We’ll see. 

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14 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

I kind of agree with you and find earthquakes to be exciting as long as they are not too disruptive of course. I was riding in a work truck in Tacoma during the Nisqually quake and didn't feel a thing, kind of disappointed actually.  During another smaller quake I was on a ferry and of course had no idea one was occurring.  There have been other minor ones that somehow I never felt.  I tell people that if they want to be safe during a quake, just be with me 😃

Lol. I’ll happily stand outside in a barrage of CTG lightning strikes within 500ft of me, but would be 101% happy to never experience another earthquake again in my life.

Just nope. Not into it. We had a measly 5.8 here in Aug 2011 and even that was enough for me to run out of the house cussing. :lol: 

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30 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Also known as Dream season in Lake Tahoe. Assuming were not being poisoned by wild fire smoke of course 🙂

Dream season here too.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I was home by myself in 6th grade during the Loma Prieta Earthquake. When I eventually made it to the front yard the gas line to the house was ruptured along with a bunch of neighbors houses. The main water pipe was also ruptured and flooding the streets. Luckily my older neighbor knew where the shut offs were for the gas and went around turning everyone's off.

I definitely know where they are located at my Tahoe house. Lol

First earthquake I ever experienced was the Northridge quake in 1994.      We were in Mission Valley in San Diego and even down there it just about shook us out of bed.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

D**n that’d be a crazy experience by yourself at 6th grade. I was in 8th grade for the nisqually quake and I remember shutting my locker to go to lunch or next class or something when it started. Dove into the nearest classroom and under the desk and smashed my forehead on the desk as I went under. We lived in Palo alto for the 89 quake. I was 2 and my mom said she dropped me down the stairs when it happened 🤣🤣 but I was ok I guess besides some bruises. After that she told my dad we had to move because she wasn’t dealing with the narrow steep a** stairs in the old California homes anymore 

I'll bet she was totally freaking out!  Can't imagine.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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46 minutes ago, The Blob said:

See, this is stuff I would go after first after the earthquake. My first job was at a nursing home and it was really close to the San Andreas fault. Because I worked nights, the fire marshal would surprise us and do drills. I was the only one who knew where the gas and water mains were and what to do in an emergency.

Funny, that is also where I got so much of my emergency preparedness from. I worked at a large all stages senior community from independent living to assisted living to nursing for not quite a decade working grounds, and us along with maintenance and security crews were considered the front lines in an emergency situation so we had protocols that we would regularly run though with shutting down the propane and other utilities, etc. My boss was awesome and huge with safety which you have to be in that setting. 
Anyway my biggest worry is being on the road for work and having many bridges, and roadways where landslides could happen, etc  and not being able to easily get home if I was say in Skykomish or even eastern Washington. That is why I on occasion remind my wife, mom, and 8yr old daughter as to what to do in a large quake, shut down the propane, do an inspection all around the house and in the mechanical room for any water leaks, how to power up the house with the generator if the power grid fails. I truly hope I am either at home or at work however (I work just under a mile from my house and could easily walk home if needed) if the big one does hit. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 4

500h_anom.na.png

Liking how strong this ridge is.  Great inversion pattern and also increases the chances for a good outcome with the retrogression.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The offshore flow is weak enough (and actually northerly at times) with this upcoming ridge to where even Tim might have an inversion to deal with. 😮

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The offshore flow is weak enough (and actually northerly at times) with this upcoming ridge to where even Tim might have an inversion to deal with. 😮

Probably not.   ECMWF does really well with low clouds coverage and the 12Z run did not show any low clouds out here from Saturday through Thursday.     Sun angle is increasing too.    The heart of the inversion season is roughly Nov 20th - Jan 20th.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably not.   ECMWF does really well with low clouds coverage and the 12Z run did not show any low clouds out here from Saturday through Thursday.     Sun angle is increasing too.    The heart of the inversion season is roughly Nov 20th - Jan 20th.   👍

We have one day left to hit that fake cold hard!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ugly op. Ensembles? Probably much better.

Gets there in the 🤡 range.

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