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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


The Blob

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS Day 11 500s vs 00z

image.thumb.png.7f6d03c4582b069a3e17cf4693f51c81.png

Looking good. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wonder what the CFS looked like at this time in 2019?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder what the CFS looked like at this time in 2019?!

Don’t know. But the EPS looked terrible 3yrs ago to the moment. 

A4A759E0-D961-44F7-AA8F-61C085162D6E.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Don’t know. But the EPS looked terrible 3yrs ago to the moment. 

A4A759E0-D961-44F7-AA8F-61C085162D6E.jpeg

Holy Moly

  • Sun 1
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I have it. On day 5. Been asymptomatic the whole time. You doing ok?

Yep, I'm mostly fine. My body feels completely normal. My nose is just dripping like a faucet today, unfortunately.

Haven't felt anything more than allergy like symptoms since 5am Wednesday.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Arctic ice volume doing quite a bit better compared to this time last year. Negative anomaly has been cut by over half.

Hopefully we don’t waste it away with a bad pattern.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Arctic ice volume doing quite a bit better compared to this time last year.

Hopefully we don’t waste it away with a bad pattern.

I was just reading your post from 2019 about the ice

  

On 1/27/2019 at 3:21 PM, Phil said:

Some interesting differences now developing with regards to the structure of the Arctic ice pack.

 

While it’s still somewhat early to project (Arctic ice volume doesn’t peak until late May/early June) I think some preliminary analysis is warranted.

 

jtqQ5WA.gif

 

1) The thicker multiyear ice has been blown into the western Arctic this year, away from the Siberian continent and towards the Beaufort Gyre (which happens to be in one of its strongest states since 2007). Given the Siberian continent has been a source for some very warm air under the modern Eurasian circulation regime, this in conjunction with the stronger Beaufort Gyre could lock that ice in place for several years, helping it grow (if we avoid a boreal summer dipole cell, which was responsible for at least half of the ice loss since 1995). Also, since ice grows more rapidly (during boreal winter) in the shallower Siberian waters, it’s a much more efficient source of ice production for the Gyre cell, as opposed to locally-grown stuff there.

 

2) The thinner, first year ice on the Siberian side will be vulnerable to an early melt out. Not only does Eurasia warm faster than North America for large scale/dynamic reasons, but as aforementioned, the waters there are shallower. So that ice might melt out even faster than the recent (high) melt averages that are to be expected in a warm climate phase.

 

3) The ice in the northern Canadian straits (including the Northwest Passage) is thicker this year, and the lack of an overpowering Baffin Island vortex/+NAO will mean reduced warm advection/SW flow across the NATL polar front, which will be less distinct and probably displaced equatorward versus 2018.

 

4) While ice volume overall is significantly higher than last year at this time, we saw a last minute surge last March following the February SSW/-NAO, which killed the +NAO/Baffin tornado for 4 weeks, shutting down warm advection *just* long enough to allow for a recovery. So we might end up similar to 2018 in the end.

 

So, my (very preliminary) prediction is for an early, aggressive start to the melt season due to the rapid meltdown of thin, first-year Siberian ice, followed by a significant slowdown during August, as the thicker ice in the Beaufort Gyre (with its reduced salinity) is more stubborn and persistent. Of course, it really depends how the pattern unfolds, especially during the “preconditioning” months of May-July, when insolation is greatest.

 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

can someone go Tonga the Rockies please, K Thx By

Hey now some of us live there!😜

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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28 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was just reading your post from 2019 about the ice

  

 

Unfortunately we pissed it all away in winter 2019/20 with that hideous pattern. Lots of MYI flushed through the Fram Strait which resulted in a large melt-out in 2020.

I was very pessimistic about it in spring 2020. We were lucky to avoid a new record low that summer.

Now we’ve definitely bounced back somewhat. Let’s keep it going.

433D75BB-3C73-496B-A187-B8E459EA5633.jpeg.bb7747e4e82ea45826f4393c0c770617.jpeg

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

Unfortunately we pissed it all away in winter 2019/20 with that hideous pattern. Lots of MYI flushed through the Fram Strait which resulted in a large melt-out in 2020.

I was very pessimistic about it in spring 2020. We were lucky to avoid a new record low that summer.

Now we’ve definitely bounced back somewhat. Let’s keep it going.

433D75BB-3C73-496B-A187-B8E459EA5633.jpeg.bb7747e4e82ea45826f4393c0c770617.jpeg

 

Arctic sea ice extent is actually the highest it's been at this point since 2009. Pretty encouraging, hope the trend continues.

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Hmmmm

814analog.off.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Arctic sea ice extent is actually the highest it's been at this point since 2009. Pretty encouraging, hope the trend continues.

Definitely good news. More extent will increase net albedo even if volume is a more representative metric for overall health of the ice pack.

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9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Boo!  Boring weather!  No rain.  🥺

 

So.... instead.  Does anyone have any cool weather stories they want to share that YOU'VE lived through?  We got a boring stretch of weather ahead.  Best to make the best of it.

Screen Shot 2022-01-21 at 2.35.10 PM.png

Same for us in the Boise area...image.thumb.png.ca69abde15f9f91bc80598c75b6240d9.png

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2 minutes ago, Kuna_Idaho_Dude said:

Beautiful for Oregon and SW Idaho!

Love having an Idahoan post. I hope you do well.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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