PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised 1985 wasn't better.  I had a string of 12 days where I was living at that time.  Still can't get over that event.

I was in 7th grade, I remember it snowed very hard from about 7am to about 2pm but dropped about a foot of snow.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Above freezing for the first time since Christmas eve.  33 degrees....

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

The way I look at it is, it just depends on the strength of the low, and how bad it wants to pull some seepage through the gaps.  I don't really think the low level cold we have right now is going to make any difference this time.  We are already in full South wind mode.  It will be dependent on NEW cold air.

Thoughts?

Yup.  There will have to be low level CAA from the passes which the GFS and ECMWF both show.  Apparently one of the Candian models that was just posted thinks so too.

Beyond that there are additional snow chances late Monday through early Thursday.  Very weak warmup.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was in 7th grade, I remember it snowed very hard from about 7am to about 2pm but dropped about a foot of snow.

And then there was another good snow also, and cold that just went on for days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With such heavy intensity and so much cold still hanging around I bet some places will have snow tomorrow night.

You know your area better than I do, but I just looked at current temps across Western Washington and was surprised how mild a lot of places are already, temps will probably stay steady if not rise many places overnight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS does look pretty good for the Seattle area tomorrow night/Monday morning. Starts as rain, but then goes back to snow pretty quick.

[Hawksfan2008]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  There will have to be low level CAA from the passes which the GFS and ECMWF both show.  Apparently one of the Candian models that was just posted thinks so too.

Beyond that there are additional snow chances late Monday through early Thursday.  Very weak warmup.

Agreed. Not looking good for Seattle (tomorrow) but you can clearly see the cold dry air making it into the EPSL and foothills. 

[Randyc321]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yup.  There will have to be low level CAA from the passes which the GFS and ECMWF both show.  Apparently one of the Candian models that was just posted thinks so too.

Beyond that there are additional snow chances late Monday through early Thursday.  Very weak warmup.

Thank God for the I-90 tunnels!!  

[The Ms. Anthrop]

36 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Canadian vs NAM

Do you think if we all started singing “O Canada” really loudly it would help?

It reached a blistering 34.4 degrees in Skyway today, and has currently dropped 31.9. Very little melt down, and the icicles look lovely with the Christmas lights illuminating them. Really curious if it will start to warm up tonight before midnight or if the cold will continue to linger past the witching hour.

[RentonHill]

 

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS does look pretty good for the Seattle area tomorrow night/Monday morning. Starts as rain, but then goes back to snow pretty quick.

Better than 18z but hard to see how the flip flopping makes me any more confident

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well then... 10:1 map gives us 22", Kuchera 15"... 

[RayRay]

50 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the outflow area up by Bellingham with no snow cover. Fascinating. 

Where do I find that map?

Also, interesting some of those models show a snow tongue for Kitsap County.

Some of the higher res show 8"+ for Green/Gold Mountain.

Guess what I am going to be doing at the end of next week after my university studying is finished?

downhill skiing in the powder at 1000-1500 ft up.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS does look pretty good for the Seattle area tomorrow night/Monday morning. Starts as rain, but then goes back to snow pretty quick.

GFS is strange with 925 temps... warms way up tomorrow and then cold air comes back from the east across the entire area by tomorrow evening.    I am skeptical without the ECMWF being on board.

 

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, KingstonWX said:

I get that in theory, but I've seen a ton of times over the last 42 years of life where a band from about Shoreline north never switches over, even in this scenarios. Maybe they get a few hours of rain snow mix before precip just ends and starts melting, but I can't help but feel like models might be overplaying the scour.

Then again, I was surprised to wake up to 33 degree snow the other morning so easily too, so anything is possible. 

I also don't see how there isn't at least a small chance of freezing rain, given the snowcover and low DPs. Maybe I have something to learn in this event though.

Our Dp's are pretty much shot at this time.  Temps are all a bit above freezing, and the winds is variable, but mainly from the South.  This will be a different type of snow event if it happens.  We might both be lucky to be in the far East side of Kitsap for a change.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is strange with 925 temps... warms way up tomorrow and then cold air comes back from the east across the entire area by tomorrow evening.    I am skeptical without the ECMWF being on board.

 

Hope it works out for everyone, the best dynamics for an anafront scenario are pretty clearly further south. It looks like something straight out of March 2012. 

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Our Dp's are pretty much shot at this time.  Temps are all a bit above freezing, and the winds is variable, but mainly from the South.  This will be a different type of snow event if it happens.  We might both be lucky to be in the far East side of Kitsap for a change.

 

I was just looking at that. They are coming up fast. When I first posted that, we were still at a DP in the 20s. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still looking like a pretty major overrunning event for Puget sound Wednesday night.

[bainbridgekid]

If it doesn’t snow at all tomorrow night that will be quite the miss for the GFS. 00z spits out like 9” for Seattle. I’ve never seen it show nearly as much phantom snow as it has in borderline setups this year though so I’m very skeptical. My thoughts haven’t changed too much. I think most likely we will be slightly too warm (34-38 degrees) and see mostly rain or a nonsticking mix but there is about a 25% chance we flip back to all snow and see some decent accumulations. Really tough call.

Overrunning snow Wednesday night looks much more threatening to me.

[Randyc321]

@MR.SNOWMIZER  @bainbridgekid

I have only lived on the Island for 5 years or so.  East Brem for many years before that.

How often do you recall Kitsap getting snow from air damming on the West and gap seepage from the East while rain in the middle?  Ever?  Not me, but I didn't used to pay a lot of attention to the weather here on the Island before I moved here.

[Blizzard777]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

January was the King back in those days 

[Randyc321]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

If it doesn’t snow at all tomorrow night that will be quite the miss for the GFS. 00z spits out like 9” for Seattle. I’ve never seen it show nearly as much phantom snow as it has in borderline setups this year though so I’m very skeptical. My thoughts haven’t changed too much. I think most likely we will be slightly too warm (34-38 degrees) and see mostly rain or a nonsticking mix but there is about a 25% chance we flip back to all snow and see some decent accumulations. Really tough call.

Overrunning snow Wednesday night looks much more threatening to me.

Wed. bares watching for sure. Can somebody post the Euro image for that storm? 0z Thur.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

If it doesn’t snow at all tomorrow night that will be quite the miss for the GFS. 00z spits out like 9” for Seattle. I’ve never seen it show nearly as much phantom snow as it has in borderline setups this year though so I’m very skeptical. My thoughts haven’t changed too much. I think most likely we will be slightly too warm (34-38 degrees) and see mostly rain or a nonsticking mix but there is about a 25% chance we flip back to all snow and see some decent accumulations. Really tough call.

Overrunning snow Wednesday night looks much more threatening to me.

The Wednesday night setup looks really solid for you guys. 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

@MR.SNOWMIZER  @bainbridgekid

I have only lived on the Island for 5 years or so.  East Brem for many years before that.

How often do you recall Kitsap getting snow from air damming on the West and gap seepage from the East while rain in the middle?  Ever?  Not me, but I didn't used to pay a lot of attention to the weather here on the Island before I moved here.

It would be cold air damming up against the olympics and seeping over into the KitsapPenn. It happens fairly often, but usually only hits Seabeck, South Kitsap, and parts of Brem maybe. Rarely, if ever, the island. 

[Randyc321]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

It would be cold air damming up against the olympics and seeping over into the KitsapPenn. It happens fairly often, but usually only hits Seabeck, South Kitsap, and parts of Brem maybe. Rarely, if ever, the island. 

Thanks.  I do not remember the Island getting snow, but Bremerton rain.

If anyone will knows its probably Bainbridgekid

[North_County]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the outflow area up by Bellingham with no snow cover. Fascinating. 

Hmmm.....Not sure how I feel about that. The "bare" spot seems to cover my area, and I can confirm....we definitely still have snow pack here. Even added to it after the outflow winds stopped.....

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the outflow area up by Bellingham with no snow cover. Fascinating. 

I went driving up in the county the other day and it was amazing to see how the snow had been scoured away.  The lee side of buildings had lots of snow but open pasture/lawns were stripped.

 

[joelgombiner]

It seems we need three things for snow in Seattle on Monday: Heavy precipitation, a strong cross-Cascades pressure gradient, and cold air in the Columbia Basin. The GFS thinks all of those things will happen. 

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

@MR.SNOWMIZER  @bainbridgekid

I have only lived on the Island for 5 years or so.  East Brem for many years before that.

How often do you recall Kitsap getting snow from air damming on the West and gap seepage from the East while rain in the middle?  Ever?  Not me, but I didn't used to pay a lot of attention to the weather here on the Island before I moved here.

Bainbridge had quite a few small cold air damming snow events in 07-08 and 08-09 but there has been a distinct lack of them the last decade or so. Generally speaking Bainbridge is too far East for snow at sea level in those setups but the hills used to get snow with them fairly often.

[snow_wizard]

If I were working at the NWS I would be looking at this very seriously.  The GFS means business tomorrow night.  Not impossible at all.

I'm reminded of the unlikely snow event Portland had just before the big cold wave unfolded.

[Randyc321]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If I were working at the NWS I would be looking at this very seriously.  The GFS means business tomorrow night.  Not impossible at all.

I'm reminded of the unlikely snow event Portland had just before the big cold wave unfolded.

Not sure why.  Just though of this as soon as I read the comment.  I love the NWS. 

[Fircrest]

Does anyone think the Tacoma area will get wind gusts to 50 MPH late tonight through tomorrow?  I see that a wind advisory has been issued.  It seems like strong southerly winds will encourage fairly rapid snow melt. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

If it doesn’t snow at all tomorrow night that will be quite the miss for the GFS. 00z spits out like 9” for Seattle. I’ve never seen it show nearly as much phantom snow as it has in borderline setups this year though so I’m very skeptical. My thoughts haven’t changed too much. I think most likely we will be slightly too warm (34-38 degrees) and see mostly rain or a nonsticking mix but there is about a 25% chance we flip back to all snow and see some decent accumulations. Really tough call.

Overrunning snow Wednesday night looks much more threatening to me.

I think one of the new parameters in both the GFS and the Euro is that water freezes at 35 or 36˚F.

[MossMan]

32.5 DP 26. 
My below freezing streak just ended but no melting with DP’s low still. 176 or so hours (if I did my math correctly) below freezing. WOW! 

[snow_wizard]

I can't believe we are sitting here looking at multiple legit snow chances after what we've already had.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Does anyone think the Tacoma area will get wind gusts to 50 MPH late tonight through tomorrow?  I see that a wind advisory has been issued.  It seems like strong southerly winds will encourage fairly rapid snow melt. 

I have my doubts.

[KingstonWX]

16 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Thanks.  I do not remember the Island getting snow, but Bremerton rain.

If anyone will knows its probably Bainbridgekid

I've seen it where there is a cold air pocket over the EPSL that somehow stretches over into Seattle and nearby areas, and reaches across the water, but that is super ultra rare. Like, I think i've only seen it at the very end of overrunning events, and even then it's brief.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

32.5 DP 26. 
My below freezing streak just ended but no melting with DP’s low still. 176 or so hours (if I did my math correctly) below freezing. WOW! 

Incredible.  I'm at 28.6 now, but I'll have to settle for 7 consecutive highs of 35 or lower.  Still amazing.

[Brennan]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised 1985 wasn't better.  I had a string of 12 days where I was living at that time.  Still can't get over that event.

Pretty pathetic if you ask me. I mean, we had 13 consecutive sub freezing highs at our place in January 2005 for crying out loud. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like no real warmup at all on this GFS run.  We go from a fairly chilly active pattern right into an inversion.  A cold Jan is very much on the table.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Brennan said:

Pretty pathetic if you ask me. I mean, we had 13 consecutive sub freezing highs at our place in January 2005 for crying out loud. 

I was just referring to the Vancouver station only having 7 in Nov 1985.  Not sure how that happened.  I hope to tell you I was very jelly in Jan 2005.