PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Christensen87 said:

This pretty much sums up the CFS for the next month  It’s so depressing not having any model eye candy in the works. Here’s to hoping for another great Feb. Happy Friday everyone!

The -PNA/SE-Ridge pattern will return in a major way late this month or early in February.

Hit the snooze button for the next 3 weeks.

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Did I see that somebody is saying the La Nina is over or ending.  There is so much stuff to go through on here I might have misunderstood something.  At any rate there is no imminent end to the Nina that I can see this year.  In fact I would have expected some warming of the ENSO regions to begin by now if a warm event was going to happen this year.

La Niña is unlikely to continue next year.

For 2023 I’d put odds at:

El Niño: 60%
Neutral: 35%
La Niña: 5%

[Phil]

The long duration IPWP WWB event/looping RMMs in the WPAC denotes the demise of La Niña.

Of course it will be with us for several months still. And its echoes may be felt until mid/late summer.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Good riddance indeed.    Enough precipitation in any form... just want some drier weather at this point.  

You live in the wrong climate for that, bruh.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

You live in the wrong climate for that, bruh.

Trolling again?  

Yes... it is normally wet here.   But its been ridiculously wet over the last 90 days compared to normal for this area.   Par for the course for a Nina.     It is not unreasonable to expect generally drier weather for some period at this point... also climo for this area after an extremely wet period.  

[Geos]

Just heard on KIRO that 38 avalanches have occurred from the pass on west onto 90, along with many trees.

[komodo]

49 minutes ago, gusky said:

Anyone got recommendations for good intro to meteorology online courses?

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/
 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

[andrewr]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

recs to remove a 1' tall ice berm from the city plow that is literally as thick as concrete?  my blower will not even touch it. too solid to even shovel.   I don't have a plow blade

Are you talking about ice build up on the blade itself? You could try taking a torch to the back of the blade and heating the steel.

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim! How did the 18z Euro look for snowfall tonight? 

Here you go...

 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, andrewr said:

Are you talking about ice build up on the blade itself? You could try taking a torch to the back of the blade and heating the steel.

I think he’s talking about the wall of re-frozen slush at the end of a driveway after the road was plowed.

Should use a splitting maul or axe. I’ve had to do that a few times, for the exact same reason.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

recs to remove a 1' tall ice berm from the city plow that is literally as thick as concrete?  my blower will not even touch it. too solid to even shovel.   I don't have a plow blade

I have one that is a couple of inches deep, like a solid ice curb.  Snowblower has a hard time crossing over it when I cross over it to get on the street to turn it around.   I have to lift up on it to get it over. Someone suggested an ice pick, though I don't own one.  

[KingstonWX]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Anyone got recommendations for good intro to meteorology online courses?

Is your goal to gain a professional education or just your own personal knowledge and understanding?

[tjb723]

Still absolutely dumping snow here right now. Roads/driveway/car were all clear and bare this afternoon, just started to see the lawn again in spots and then this.

Don't know whether I feel lucky or not at this point. 

[Snownerd3000]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

The -PNA/SE-Ridge pattern will return in a major way late this month or early in February.

Hit the snooze button for the next 3 weeks.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hmmm

Here it comes!!

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, tjb723 said:

Still absolutely dumping snow here right now. Roads/driveway/car were all clear and bare this afternoon, just started to see the lawn again in spots and then this.

Don't know whether I feel lucky or not at this point. 

Its really cool having people in Sultan and Gold Bar on here now.     I often watch crazy c-zones on the radar and wonder what the conditions are like in that area.   Its basically a northern version of North Bend.  

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Anyone got recommendations for good intro to meteorology online courses?

Mel Strong ….haven’t listened to all of his stuff but he’s good. This is just a YouTube course….but he’s free.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

The long duration IPWP WWB event/looping RMMs in the WPAC denotes the demise of La Niña.

Of course it will be with us for several months still. And its echoes may be felt until mid/late summer.

Hopefully the Niña forcing at least lasts deep enough into the spring so we can break the warm/dry spring cycle of the last several years 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

No split flow dullness this season so far. 

Going out with a bang before next winter’s El Niño split flow hell.

#DontShootTheMessenger

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its really cool having people in Sultan and Gold Bar on here now.     I often watch crazy c-zones on the radar and wonder what the conditions are like in that area.   Its basically a northern version of North Bend.  

Its super helpful for me because I have to take HWY2 somewhat often, and no one ever seems to report anything between Monroe and the pass anywhere else. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hopefully the Niña forcing at least lasts deep enough into the spring so we can break the warm/dry spring cycle of the last several years 

Should see La Niña influence through the spring at least.

But unless it’s a slow demise (of the ET response(s)) like 1957, and/or an east-based +ENSO at inception, that western ridge/4CH will probably rise from the grave during mid/late summer.

[Blizzard777]

34 minutes ago, Geos said:

Just heard on KIRO that 38 avalanches have occurred from the pass on west onto 90, along with many trees.

They were natural as well! gravity still works as it should.  I wonder how many folks got trapped in the forest service backroads during this event and still there…..ugh. Scary stuff! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pics of my aunts cabin in Roslyn.  

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Going out with a bang before next winter’s El Niño split flow hell.

#DontShootTheMessenger

[MossMan]

[gusky]

29 minutes ago, komodo said:

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/
 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

That second link is awesome, thanks for sharing! I always love coming across a great weather resource such as this. 

[ShawniganLake]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think he’s talking about the wall of re-frozen slush at the end of a driveway after the road was plowed.

Should use a splitting maul or axe. I’ve had to do that a few times, for the exact same reason.

Plow?  What’s a plow?  38” of snow this winter and our road has not been plowed once.  It’s a bit rough at the moment. It’s 29F and the 6”+ of slush is freezing up.  

[NWbyNW]

Sorry for the poor quality of the pictures.  I was watching Wenatchee's local news channel (bet y'all didn't know they had one) and they had these graphics on the screen.  Near record 24hr snowfall in Wenatchee.  Leavenworth got 33''!  The second image shows the record snowfalls for Wenatchee.  

[gusky]

27 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Is your goal to gain a professional education or just your own personal knowledge and understanding?

Just my own knowledge. I'll try to go to college before professional training.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Weak ninos tend to be fairly dynamic.  Think 2006/2007 happy thoughts. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There's been a shift in weather patterns causing these extreme events in the northwest.  I have a feeling we're going to be seeing more of this in the future.  

[Phil]

The enhanced trades associated with La Niña have been largely absent for 2 weeks, and likely won’t be returning this month.

This breakdown in the “enhanced state” of atmospheric circulation will allow the piled up water in the IPWP to slosh back eastward as an OKW.

The consequences won’t be readily apparent in the short term, but in the long term it will trigger the demise of the La Niña.

The tropics will return to a more “La Niña” like state next month, but it will likely be too little, too late. Once the ocean starts to respond like this, it’s difficult to stop.

[jakerepp]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its really cool having people in Sultan and Gold Bar on here now.     I often watch crazy c-zones on the radar and wonder what the conditions are like in that area.   Its basically a northern version of North Bend.  

I grew up in the foothills outside Monroe and we got some awesome action going on sometimes. Good combo of elevation, CZs, and distance from civilization. If I had known about this forum I would've been all over it back then. 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There's been a shift in weather patterns causing these extreme events in the northwest.  I have a feeling we're going to be seeing more of this in the future.  

Yeah, it always feels that way. My brain kinda went there after the 2013/14 - 2015/16 period, when we were getting hammered with cold/snow each winter, for long stretches.

But alas, like all good things, it came to an end.   

[MossMan]

That CZ needs to trend north a few more miles. Looks like my old house is ground zero at the moment. 

[MossMan]

Phil is not onboard for 2022/23. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil is not onboard for 2022/23. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Snow mixed with just a little rain currently,  I knew there was a chance!!

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not saying anything about next winter.   Its probably pretty irrelevant to our chances.

I do think if ENSO stays cold this year we have a very good chance of a cold year overall.  Probably a cool summer as well which we are way overdue for.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Geos said:

That house on the Magnolia bluff has collapsed. Weight of the land push it over and pancaked it.

Like I say....there is always a price to pay here...at least most of the times we get a good round of winter weather.