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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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One thing I will say for sure is if we get another round of winter that at least approaches what we just had this will be the best winter for me since I've lived in Covington.  Still a long way to go to catch November / December 1985 though.

I just hope that we can get something more enjoyable in the in between times though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

One thing I will say for sure is if we get another round of winter that at least approaches what we just had this will be the best winter for me since I've lived in Covington.  Still a long way to go to catch November / December 1985 though.

I just hope that we can get something more enjoyable in the in between times though.

I will say it would be nice to have a week or two break to get some stuff done outside before the goodies come back! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do think if ENSO stays cold this year we have a very good chance of a cold year overall.  Probably a cool summer as well which we are way overdue for.

I would love an average summer. Extremely cool and extremely hot are both undesirable. I don't really want 50+ highs of 90 or above, and I don't want a repeat of 1993. The long term average is just perfect.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

La Niña is unlikely to continue next year.

For 2023 I’d put odds at:

El Niño: 60%
Neutral: 35%
La Niña: 5%

I think neutral has a pretty solid shot which you pretty well say here.  I would go lower on the Nino chance, though, unless it's weak.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do think if ENSO stays cold this year we have a very good chance of a cold year overall.  Probably a cool summer as well which we are way overdue for.

Yeah... a cool summer is almost always a wet and gloomy summer.   You can say what you want about chilly and sunny but it almost never happens.   We are probably due for a wet and gloomy summer... but I am certainly not hoping for it.   Don't need wet and gloomy all winter and all summer too.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow drift said:

I would love an average summer. Extremely cool and extremely hot are both undesirable. I don't really want 50+ highs of 90 or above, and I don't want a repeat of 1993. The long term average is just perfect.

If we have a cool summer it will probably be of the dry / marine air variety.  Over there that has little impact.  Cle Elum can be affected by marine air, but it's still clear.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I would love an average summer. Extremely cool and extremely hot are both undesirable. I don't really want 50+ highs of 90 or above, and I don't want a repeat of 1993. The long term average is just perfect.

At least you have a chance to avoid that. :lol: 

We had 55+ days at/above 90 last summer despite never experiencing an anomalous ridge. I’m mortified at what the next big league midsummer death ridge will do here.

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45 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

They were natural as well! gravity still works as it should.  I wonder how many folks got trapped in the forest service backroads during this event and still there…..ugh. Scary stuff! 

I'm betting there will be some deaths from this.  Just too epic for some people to have not been caught off guard.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We had a brownout today due to high winds. Most places in town had low power. We also kept getting flickers that would mess up work. Full power has been restored. We had a large tree fall on a main rd on the other side of town. I think everyone is ok though.

 

Friends in Seaside keep posting pix of the flooding there and Beerman Creek looks as bad as it ever was. Beerman Crk south of Seaside used to always flood in the winter and you'd have to time your trips with the tides. It is better now since they did some work in 2013 or 2014 but still floods during storms.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Pics of my aunts cabin in Roslyn.  

Resized_Screenshot_20220107-142351_Facebook.jpeg

Resized_Screenshot_20220107-142358_Facebook(1).jpeg

Resized_20220107_181815.jpeg

That is actually going to end up being a tragedy.  My dad's friend always talked about the horrible death toll to the deer in 1955.  Hadn't even thought of that until now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

If we could’ve kept the La Niña it would almost certainly be a cool summer since QBO/tropical strat is favorable to keep in the 4CH/pseudo +TNH at bay (unlike 2021).

But now another warm to hot summer (or at least late summer/autumn) is *statistically* favored. But not a given, obviously.

If we managed a -2 to -4 June/July, then went above average for August/September I'd be fine with that.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Times like these I’m really glad they dredged the cedar river. Renton used to flood horribly bad before

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is actually going to end up being a tragedy.  My dad's friend always talked about the horrible death toll to the deer in 1955.  Hadn't even thought of that until now.

Thought about that earlier when I was looking at our snow depth in twisp. Already too high for deer and is at what our max was last winter. Deer pops are already struggling big time over there and this won’t help. Bummer

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42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, it always feels that way. My brain kinda went there after the 2013/14 - 2015/16 period, when we were getting hammered with cold/snow each winter, for long stretches.

But alas, like all good things, it came to an end. :(  

A lot of it hasn't been that good actually.   I think in general he was referring to the results of the more amplified regime which I think is being caused by the solar grand minimum.  If so...just imagine what we might see when we get deeper into it. 

As for winters...we have certainly done ok since 2015-16, but we have yet to have a region wide top tier Arctic blast in that entire period since.  Kind of a mixed bag, but at least every winter has had something to offer unlike the absolute turds we saw in the Jan 1999 through 2005-06 time frame.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That CZ needs to trend north a few more miles. Looks like my old house is ground zero at the moment. 

Looks like a northward shift might be starting now.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Times like these I’m really glad they dredged the cedar river. Renton used to flood horribly bad before

Thought about that earlier when I was looking at our snow depth in twisp. Already too high for deer and is at what our max was last winter. Deer pops are already struggling big time over there and this won’t help. Bummer

Yeah...that picture actually made me sad.  Those animals are suffering.  I guess I'm in a bit of a Debbie Downer mode tonight.  Kind of happens after a great winter event ends.  Still doesn't change the fact that situation in Central WA is not something to envy....as much as I would have liked to see it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we have a cool summer it will probably be of the dry / marine air variety.  Over there that has little impact.  Cle Elum can be affected by marine air, but it's still clear.

July of 1986 and July of 1993 were both very wet and cool in Spokane. I got to experience both of them. I wore my winter jacket at times.

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

July of 1986 and July of 1993 were both very wet and cool in Spokane. I got to experience both of them. I wore my winter jacket at times.

1993 was one for the ages alright.  We had some really amazing thunderstorms over here that summer.

I was thinking more like the summers we used to have where the Pacific High dominates over the 4CH.  Those summers were dry but cooler than recent ones.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  Mission Ridge is at 13 degrees with winds gusting to 78.  Absolute insanity going on over there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1993 was one for the ages alright.  We had some really amazing thunderstorms over here that summer.

I was thinking more like the summers we used to have where the Pacific High dominates over the 4CH.  Those summers were dry but cooler than recent ones.

If we keep raising the averages then cool and sunny becomes more likely.   It's all relative.    Except our new "cool" and sunny might seem warm to someone transported from the 1950s.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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July 2021 was very close to normal in Seattle.    The average temp was exactly 68 degrees.     There was only one year between 1945-1979 with an average temperature warmer in July... that was in 1958 (and just barely). But we consider that close to normal now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

There's been a shift in weather patterns causing these extreme events in the northwest.  I have a feeling we're going to be seeing more of this in the future.  

Seems like whatever has changed of late continues to make us hotter. Haven’t had a below normal month since last March and that’s the only one since Nov 2020.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seems like whatever has changed of late continues to make us hotter. Haven’t had a below normal month since last March and that’s the only one since Nov 2020.

Only February can save us. Lol but seriously if the valley gets anymore snow in February or March and both those months end up cool then I think we will see this as a good winter. Next winter is probably more likely going to be southern based. If we follow Jim’s 71-72 analog this winter, then we ll get blasted come December 2022. 🤪

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July 2021 was very close to normal in Seattle.    The average temp was exactly 68 degrees.     There was only one year between 1945-1979 with an average temperature warmer in July... that was in 1958 (and just barely). But we consider that close to normal now.  

I remember you fighting me hard claiming it was gonna be warm at SEA because of EPS 850mb temps. ;) 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think neutral has a pretty solid shot which you pretty well say here.  I would go lower on the Nino chance, though, unless it's weak.

Obviously too early for a definitive call.

But it’s unusual for midwinter trades to weaken for this long during a healthy La Niña without a subsequent transition.

Statistically speaking, I think you have to hedge towards a +ENSO transition.

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18 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seems like whatever has changed of late continues to make us hotter. Haven’t had a below normal month since last March and that’s the only one since Nov 2020.

This N to S gradient thing is kind of inexplicable.  I totally think it will end at some point though.

The thing that has been so weird about this season is the nearly endless baroclinicity with a low pressure zone cutting between high pressure to the north and high pressure to the south.  The further north you go the more anomalously cold it has been (to a point of course).

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

July 2021 was very close to normal in Seattle.    The average temp was exactly 68 degrees.     There was only one year between 1945-1979 with an average temperature warmer in July... that was in 1958 (and just barely). But we consider that close to normal now.  

A lot of that is warmer lows/urbanization, FWIW. Doesn’t apply everywhere.

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only February can save us. Lol but seriously if the valley gets anymore snow in February or March and both those months end up cool then I think we will see this as a good winter. Next winter is probably more likely going to be southern based. If we follow Jim’s 71-72 analog this winter, then we ll get blasted come December 2022. 🤪

I actually think the winter has played out as almost a perfect blend of 1970-71 and 1971-72.  At least to this point.  Still lots of time for fun stuff this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

A lot of that is warmer lows/urbanization, FWIW. Doesn’t apply everywhere.

Some of it, but there is no question the summers have been quite warm here for a while now.  I'm almost sure it's due to the balance of the Pacific High vs 4CH.  Lately the 4CH has simply had more power.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Still snowing. Just a smidge above 32 so it's a bit wet. Have 1.5" roughly. 

20220107_205809.jpg

20220107_205812.jpg

The approaches to the passes have been killing it.  And Whatcom County of course.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...that picture actually made me sad.  Those animals are suffering.  I guess I'm in a bit of a Debbie Downer mode tonight.  Kind of happens after a great winter event ends.  Still doesn't change the fact that situation in Central WA is not something to envy....as much as I would have liked to see it.

Deer are vermin. Sad to see suffering but the ecosystem will be better off.

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7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

-51 at Eagle Airport in Alaska. Wild ride for AK this winter. 

It kind of has been in WA also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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