PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If we get into a good -EPO regime and then retrograde from there this could be a great opportunity for NW OR to score coming up.  This would also give us a much needed break from the onslaught of AR events.

I believe it will retrograde at end of the month.

Big time -PNA/SE-Ridge pattern likely to open February. Maybe some -NAO as well. Vast majority of guidance has IO/MC convection returning in ~ 3 weeks.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Where exactly was it measured? How often were measurements made? How did they measure the weight of the snow?

I don’t doubt it was a s**tload of snow, but there’s a reason anecdotal reports aren’t included in climate records. They’re often very wrong.

Interestingly the editors of the paper hated this storm, because it seriously damaged the narrative they used to entice people to come here from back east.  Namely the lie that it never snows here.

At any rate the way calculated the snow weight was very clever.  There was a ship anchored in the Harbor and the weight of the snow made the ship sink lower in the water.  The amount it pushed the ship lower in the water was used to calculate the weight of the snow.  There were also reports of 6 foot depths at sea level in other towns.

I will give you that this storm was a number of standard deviations bigger than any other snowstorm ever recorded here.  I have studied this thing for decades and occasionally come across new data that does nothing but support the scope and intensity of it.  

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, gusky said:

GEFS as well honestly

Yeah...I'm really liking our chances for another round.  Could be a great winter overall.  We already have a good start.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe this will give people an idea of how 1880 did what it did.  One of the intense surface lows that tracked across southern WA made landfall in NW OR at a ridiculous 28.20 inches.  To get a low of that intensity to track that far south is almost beyond my comprehension, but it happened.  The other low was no slouch and also tracked across southern WA.  Just an insane anomaly.

[Geos]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't believe they even tried it after the horrible 1910 disaster.

Yeah really. Stupid move to try to go over with that storm. Could have ended badly...

[GHweatherChris]

[Meatyorologist]

Aside from 12/8, 1/1, and 1/2, Snoqualmie Pass has seen accumulating snow every day since 12/4. The majority of them 5"+. For a total of 250".

It is currently snowing there still, and it will snow for the rest of the day. It may snow into tomorrow morning, too. After that it dries and warms a bit.

[Meatyorologist]

GFS is having a tough time loading frames in the medium and long ranges. It's been doing this for a couple days now, delaying outputs by a couple hours across multiple sites....it seems like a server issue.

I'm taking this information as conformation bias that the hammer will drop on the 20th and there's nothing you can say or do that will convince me otherwise.

Unless you say it will drop on the 19th, of course...

[MossMan]

Been off and on snow during the night with zero accumulation. Currently light sloppy snow and 33.2 degrees. 

[snow maniac]

28 degrees this morning everything frozen up, crazy with all the standing water everywhere.

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Been off and on snow during the night with zero accumulation. Currently light sloppy snow and 33.2 degrees. 

Looks like the c-zone slipped down here over the last couple hours... we have a coating of new snow.     

I am in a little disappointed again in the ECMWF.   It showed 2-3 inches of snow for you on every run.    And it probably would have been that much if it was just 1 degree colder.  

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the c-zone slipped down here over the last couple hours... we have a coating of new snow.     

I am in a little disappointed again in the ECMWF.   It showed 2-3 inches of snow for you on every run.    And it probably would have been that much if it was just 1 degree colder.  

Yeah it was very disappointing. I did finally manage to get a dusting sometime between 5:30 and 7:30 to make the exposed grass almost white again. 

[FroYoBro]

Not raining. 

[MossMan]

It’s still trying! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, snow maniac said:

28 degrees this morning everything frozen up, crazy with all the standing water everywhere.

There should be standing ice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rained a little overnight. 35 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs has looked pretty bland in the long range though some ensembles have been decent. If we view this event in the context of a 2011-12 analog, then we will see the -PNA return around the beginning of February. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and cloudy.

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

How often does Seattle see 7+ inches of rainfall in 72hrs? Let alone in an airmass cold enough to support snow?

I suspect “76 inches in 3 days” is bogus. At least for Seattle. Unpopular opinion, I know.

1880 was crazy. Something similar happened in Sacramento in April of 1880. Extraordinary rainfall record was set while up the hill a us record snowstorm. 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/the-great-california-storm-of-april-1923-1880.html

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped down to 25.9F this morning. The snow pack is like concrete now. It’ll be slow to melt. 

[awright-31]

1-7-22 OBS for MBY

High temp - 48* recorded at 5:30 am
Low temp - 35* recorded at 10:31 pm

New precip - 0.02" 
January 2022 precip to date - 7.94"
New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 snow to date - 10.9"

[Phil]

12z GFS does look like January 2009.

Never would have considered 2008/09 an analog to this winter, but it might end up being one of the better ones assuming the pattern reverts to -PNA to open February.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredibly Seattle had more than that in January 1880.  I think it was 76 inches in 3 days.  Our weather history is insane.

I know there used to be big snows back then, but that's more than Klamath ever saw, in one month! Jan 1950 was just short of 5 feet. 

I wonder if that report has been disputed over the years. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The Rex blocking regime is setting up.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

Not raining. 

The sun is out again in Kentucky. I was hoping for more cloudy days in the swamp. FML 

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know there used to be big snows back then, but that's more than Klamath ever saw, in one month! Jan 1950 was just short of 5 feet. 

I wonder if that report has been disputed over the years. 

I like to be proven wrong, I'm just saying countless places that annually see a lot more winter have never recorded a snowstorm like that... 

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

The sun is out again in Kentucky. I was hoping for more cloudy days in the swamp. FML 

We had strong gusty winds yesterday. Much of the snow melted. Now the sun is out today.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

The sun is out again in Kentucky. I was hoping for more cloudy days in the swamp. FML 

It’s really f***ing bright today isn’t it?

8” of snowpack has sublimated to 4” without ever rising above freezing. Lol.

[snow drift]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS does look like January 2009.

Never would have considered 2008/09 an analog to this winter, but it might end up being one of the better ones assuming the pattern reverts to -PNA to open February.

I had snow nearly up to my chest at this point in January 2009. 

[RentonHill]

I just posted this here Thursday. @Philive let them know you’ll be in touch h to provide the accurate amounts

 

[snow drift]

The 1880 Storm King was really something special. Here is another photograph of Seattle after the storm.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s really f***ing bright today isn’t it?

8” of snowpack has sublimated to 4” without ever rising above freezing. Lol.

I bet 36-48 hours of 40's and showers swiftly wipes away any evidence of snow. 

Rain comes tonight.

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s really f***ing bright today isn’t it?

8” of snowpack has sublimated to 4” without ever rising above freezing. Lol.

The high sun angle does it.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I just posted this here Thursday. @Philive let them know you’ll be in touch h to provide the accurate amounts

 

It was a s**tload of snow, no doubt. Several feet for sure.

It’ll take more than anecdotes to convince me it was 5-6ft w/ a high liquid water equivalent, though. Give me details on exactly where/how it was measured, and I’ll change my tune 100%.

You’re talking the equivalent of 7-8”+ of rain falling in < 72hrs into a subfreezing boundary layer in downtown Seattle. Not physically impossible, I guess, but very unlikely to be the case.

But again, I’m open to being proven wrong.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Did we already lose Rob for the rest of the year?

[SnowHawks]

February 2nd and 3rd 1916 Seattle two day snowfall 38 inches per Seattle Times. So if you have a large pool of water (Pacific) and the right conditions(not warming the atmosphere as your low pressure lands), then yes large snowfalls can occur in the Puget Sound.  

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, snow drift said:

The high sun angle does it.

I wish we had your sun angles.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s really f***ing bright today isn’t it?

8” of snowpack has sublimated to 4” without ever rising above freezing. Lol.

Let your days be merry and bright 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

February 2nd and 3rd 1916 Seattle two day snowfall 38 inches per Seattle Times. So if you have a large pool of water (Pacific) and the right conditions(not warming the atmosphere as your low pressure lands), then yes large snowfalls can occur in the Puget Sound.  

This recent event was amazing, but I still want to see a season like 1916 or 1950.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Did we already lose Rob for the rest of the year?

There isn’t that much to talk about down here. Same warmer than normal conditions.