PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Signs of life in the final frames here?

It’s coming! 

[BLI snowman]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty much every winter event since January 2017 has been better up north. I can definitely understand being frustrated by that. 

February 2018 was better around Portland than Seattle, and February 2021 was better in SW WA than in most of the Puget Sound area.

But yeah, the February 2017-present period has seen a lot more Fraser River outflow oriented events with relatively minimal gorge outflow.

[MossMan]

Goodbye old friend…Until we meet again.

IN 3 WEEKS! 

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

As I also posted above. Something crazy was going on with that winter. Sacramento's 24 hour and storm total precip records were set in late April! Those records really haven't been approached since. It was well documented and recorded in Sacramento and up in the Sierra. I am thinking the polar vortex setup shop right off of the coast of Washington that Jan. Then again further south on the last week of April. How else would truckee at 5900' get 130" of snow in the last week of April! Extraordinary winter all around. 

If you believe NCEP NCAR reanalysis, there was a gargantuan/bizarre SSW in January 1880 that (somehow?) evolved from a modest Canadian/NATL warming event that began in December. Ended up displacing the PV way out into the North Pacific and Siberia.

Skepticism warranted, but obviously that would be unprecedented evolution, if true. Canadian warnings happen today but basically never evolve into SSW events absent major forcing out of Eurasia.

[MossMan]

Forgot how well we did from the 8th through the 18th or so of January 2020! This popped up in my FB memories. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Phil said:

If you believe NCEP NCAR reanalysis, there was a major SSW in January 1880 that (somehow?) evolved from a modest Canadian/NATL warming event that began in December. Ended up displacing the PV way out into the North Pacific and Siberia.

Skepticism warranted, but obviously that would be unprecedented evolution, if true.

 

The January 1880 airmass was more maritime polar as opposed to influenced too heavily by the PV. Temps weren't overly impressive in the region during that event. There was obviously some cold air to tap into just north of the storm track, but it was generally in the 31-33F range in Western WA during the big snow.

New Westminster, BC in the Vancouver metro had a 20/12 day on the 6th, so a touch milder up there than what we just saw last month.

Here is Olympia's data from that month. No snow totals unfortunately but I believe newspaper accounts had totals around 3 feet in the area, with a lot of melting likely between the big storms on the 6th-7th and the 9th.

 

There was an impressive arctic blast into the PNW in late December 1879, and two more solid arctic airmasses in late January and late February. Then a very cold March in the PNW. A strong La Nina season all the way.

1879-80 also featured the Nina hallmark of a massive SE ridge, with some of the most impressive anomalies of that era. Atlanta's January mean of 54.3 puts it ahead of all of their modern Januaries as measured at Hartsfield, except (you guessed it) January 1950 at 55.3.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February 2013 and 2015 were the only ones since I’ve lived here we didn’t have any snow. We even had an inch in the otherwise torchy February 2016. 

Feb 2015 "almost" didn't snow, there was a quick last minute 2" event on 2/28. I remember posting that winter how I went somewhere around 60 days without observing snow (Dec 29 > 2/27?). So without that one day, 2014-2015 could have totaled under 1" at my place.

2016/2014/2013 had a few snows but under average. 

2020 I didn't record any snow in February. You had some that month?

[Timmy Supercell]

With how February has been trending in the northwest I am surprised I went 4 consecutive Februarys below normal snowfall but it's better than how some of the recent Decembers have been trending until 2021.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The January 1880 airmass was more maritime polar as opposed to influenced too heavily by the PV. Temps weren't overly impressive in the region during that event. There was obviously some cold air to tap into just north of the storm track, but it was generally in the 31-33F range in Western WA during the big snow.

New Westminster, BC in the Vancouver metro had a 20/12 day on the 6th, so a touch milder up there than what we just saw last month.

Here is Olympia's data from that month. No snow totals unfortunately but I believe newspaper accounts had totals around 3 feet in the area, with a lot of melting likely between the big storms on the 6th-7th and the 9th.

 

There was an impressive arctic blast into the PNW in late December 1879, and two more solid arctic airmasses in late January and late February. Then a very cold March in the PNW. A strong La Nina season all the way.

1879-80 also featured the Nina hallmark of a massive SE ridge, with some of the most impressive anomalies of that era. Atlanta's January mean of 54.3 puts it ahead of all of their modern Januaries as measured at Hartsfield, except (you guessed it) January 1950 at 55.3.

 

But such an event could still explain a suppressed baroclinic gradient/NPAC high. There was very little amplification over the NPAC in Jan 1880 so something anomalous must’ve been happening in Eurasia and in the subtropical Pacific.

If this is accurate (am somewhat skeptical) it would be very bizarre mode of displacement. 

[snow drift]

25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Insane amount of snow for Oroville.  Max depth in the dry climate is usually 4 or 5 inches on the ground. Looks like about 14 -16 inches. 

That is a lot for Oroville.

 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

But such an event could still explain a suppressed baroclinic gradient/NPAC high. There was very little amplification over the NPAC in Jan 1880 so something anomalous must’ve been happening in Eurasia and in the subtropical Pacific.

If this is accurate (am somewhat skeptical) it would be very bizarre mode of displacement. 

 

I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into upper level reanalysis that far back. Those images don't even remotely match up with the documented surface observations we have from that winter.

We know that there was a very healthy La Nina that winter with an unusually suppressed jet and a pretty prototypical -PNA Western trough/SE ridge pattern. Aligns well with other such winters like 1889-90 and 1949-50.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The snow has melted outside of the canyons. Muddy dogs are back! 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS is definitely picking up on something later in the month.  Much nicer 500mb pattern than the GEFS.  Good amount of -EPO in there.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The snow has melted outside of the canyons. Muddy dogs are back! 

That is some pretty epic melting considering what you had.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is definitely picking up on something later in the month.  Much nicer 500mb pattern the GEFS.  Good amount of -EPO in there.

February is our time to shine. For some reason it has become our month over the last 35 years. 

[snow_wizard]

Hell yeah!  EPO is -2 and PNA -1 at the end of the EPS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That is some pretty epic melting considering what you had.

It really was. Wednesday night was the big melt night. Still some decent drifts down in the canyon. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, snow drift said:

February is our time to shine. For some reason it has become our month over the last 35 years. 

As much as I would have betted against another big Feb it could well be.  Still think it will begin this month though.  Usually ones that begin in late Jan and go into Feb are pretty D**n good.  1996 was the last good example.

[snow_wizard]

I'm telling you guys in OR a more -EPO look is good for you.  Might be a much more enjoyable second half of winter down there.  Might be better to shut off the gloom up here too.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As much as I would have betted against another big Feb it could well be.  Still think it will begin this month though.  Usually ones that begin in late Jan and go into Feb are pretty D**n good.  1996 was the last good example.

Something like that would bookend this winter quite nicely.

[AlTahoe]

36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The January 1880 airmass was more maritime polar as opposed to influenced too heavily by the PV. Temps weren't overly impressive in the region during that event. There was obviously some cold air to tap into just north of the storm track, but it was generally in the 31-33F range in Western WA during the big snow.

New Westminster, BC in the Vancouver metro had a 20/12 day on the 6th, so a touch milder up there than what we just saw last month.

Here is Olympia's data from that month. No snow totals unfortunately but I believe newspaper accounts had totals around 3 feet in the area, with a lot of melting likely between the big storms on the 6th-7th and the 9th.

 

There was an impressive arctic blast into the PNW in late December 1879, and two more solid arctic airmasses in late January and late February. Then a very cold March in the PNW. A strong La Nina season all the way.

1879-80 also featured the Nina hallmark of a massive SE ridge, with some of the most impressive anomalies of that era. Atlanta's January mean of 54.3 puts it ahead of all of their modern Januaries as measured at Hartsfield, except (you guessed it) January 1950 at 55.3.

 

Great find and post!

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control looks better yet.  

[Timmy Supercell]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The snow has melted outside of the canyons. Muddy dogs are back! 

Pack goes away fast there!

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

But such an event could still explain a suppressed baroclinic gradient/NPAC high. There was very little amplification over the NPAC in Jan 1880 so something anomalous must’ve been happening in Eurasia and in the subtropical Pacific.

If this is accurate (am somewhat skeptical) it would be very bizarre mode of displacement. 

Yikes.  Those composites aren't correct.  At least for the NW.  We have hard temperature data for a number of locations and the month was a bit colder than normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The snow has melted outside of the canyons. Muddy dogs are back! 

These dogs are also our defense against the cougars. We’ve lost two sheep to cougar predation this year, and likely my beautiful setter who is my avatar here, was carried off by a cougar. We’ve been tracking at least one cougar for a couple months, but it’s always a step ahead, but we find a fresh deer kill every few weeks, they’ve taken some big bucks, we are growing quite the antler collection. 

[RentonHill]

EPS

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The January 1880 airmass was more maritime polar as opposed to influenced too heavily by the PV. Temps weren't overly impressive in the region during that event. There was obviously some cold air to tap into just north of the storm track, but it was generally in the 31-33F range in Western WA during the big snow.

New Westminster, BC in the Vancouver metro had a 20/12 day on the 6th, so a touch milder up there than what we just saw last month.

Here is Olympia's data from that month. No snow totals unfortunately but I believe newspaper accounts had totals around 3 feet in the area, with a lot of melting likely between the big storms on the 6th-7th and the 9th.

 

There was an impressive arctic blast into the PNW in late December 1879, and two more solid arctic airmasses in late January and late February. Then a very cold March in the PNW. A strong La Nina season all the way.

1879-80 also featured the Nina hallmark of a massive SE ridge, with some of the most impressive anomalies of that era. Atlanta's January mean of 54.3 puts it ahead of all of their modern Januaries as measured at Hartsfield, except (you guessed it) January 1950 at 55.3.

 

Great post.  It seems that just north of OLM is where the ultimate mix of moisture and cold air took place.  I have seen a firm measurement of 52 inches on the ground in Tacoma.  I'm thinking this was a TANKED PNA somewhat positive EPO situation whereas Jan 1950 had a slightly minus EPO to go with the tanked PNA.

Looking at the low tracks map for Jan 1880 it's apparent a powerful cold airmass was dominating Western Canada because all the tracks were very flat (W to E) instead of the usual SW to NE.

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm telling you guys in OR a more -EPO look is good for you.  Might be a much more enjoyable second half of winter down there.  Might be better to shut off the gloom up here too.

If so we would be looking at a 2010-2011 winter down here which would be incredible. We have only had two Winters with a giant Dec followed by a Jan shutout.

2002-2003 - Big Dec and then no snow again till April. April was a monster.

2010-2011 - Very wet Dec, then 6 weeks of nothing. Mid Feb till essentially Jun was very cold and snowy 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS

Good blocking signal emerging!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

If so we would be looking at a 2010-2011 winter down here which would be incredible. We have only had two Winters with a giant Dec followed by a Jan shutout.

2002-2003 - Big Dec and then no snow again till April. April was a monster.

2010-2011 - Very wet Dec, then 6 weeks of nothing. Mid Feb till essentially Jun was very cold and snowy 

Looks like a real Jekyll and Hyde winter in the works.  In December some of the passes had bare ground early December and since then it has been beyond epic.  Now it appears things could get pretty dry for a while up here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and sunny. Nice day!

[gusky]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control looks better yet.  

I'm sorry, but a control run for a month away is basically entirely meaningless. The only thing that means anythign this far out is agreement for good trends across different ensembles

[gusky]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

I'm sorry, but a control run for a month away is basically entirely meaningless. The only thing that means anythign this far out is agreement for good trends across different ensembles

That said, there IS good agreement among ensembles, so it is a good sign

[VancouverIslandSouth]

59 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Forgot how well we did from the 8th through the 18th or so of January 2020! This popped up in my FB memories. 

Jan 2020 was a short lived, but the cold/snow was impressive:

Two years later, the recent snow cover is still hanging on here today, there's been a much longer duration of snow cover from roughly Christmas Day or even Christmas Eve in spots until now:

 

[gusky]

Wow, I got EXACTLY the same rain yesterday as I did the day before that. Down to the hundredth of an inch.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Jan 2020 was a short lived, but the cold/snow was impressive:

Two years later, the recent snow cover is still hanging on here today, there's been a much longer duration of snow cover from roughly Christmas Day or even Christmas Eve in spots until now:

 

One of only 3 times total I've had over 12" depth.

1/16/2020. 13".

Less than two weeks later ground was bare. Driest February on record followed.

[SnowHawks]

It seems that the 1880 and 1916 massive snowfall events could probably be described as a Puget Sound "Lake Effect" snow. Temperatures hovering around freezing or below and with well situated lows tapping into polar maritime air. Oh by the way Michael Snyder says the PNA goes negative as early as Jan 15th and stays that way for a considerable amount of time.

[snow_wizard]

Yup.  Just found the notation.  The snow in Seattle weighted an insane 52 pounds per square foot in January 1880.  That's what I used to verify the amount of water equivalent the snow had.  As I motioned before they calculated the weight based on how low a ship anchored in Eliott Bay sank in the water from the weight of the snow.  Pretty D**n clever.

Once again it was the most water to ever fall from the sky in Seattle in 3 days and it was all in the form of snow!

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

My current snow situation and also Christmas is coming down.
However the outside lights are staying up until the end of February.