PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Unless this is a regime change.  Back in the day they were much more common...especially in the area with heavy Fraser outflow influence.

If pigs could fly, people who got shat on by pigeons would consider it no big deal.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's standard fare in a cold-winter climate. West side only gets winters cold enough every decade or two.

Ground is still snow-covered here. Got some more flurries this afternoon, in fact. Bet the potholes will be showing up now that the thaw finally seems to be settling in.

I can now see why some of the Janaurys in the old days were so much colder up there than this area.  The cold up there hangs on tenaciously given the right circumstances.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I vaguely remember getting quite a bit of snow in February 1989, I shoveled huge mounds on the deck. I was 12yrs so it’s a little hazy now. I also remember riding my bike on a frozen Lake Goodwin. 

I was living in the Yakima Valley then, and remember one weekend being mild enough to ride my bike on the farm roads in a T-shirt, and the Yakima River being totally frozen from bank to bank by the next weekend.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I can now see why some of the Janaurys in the old days were so much colder up there than this area.  The cold up there hangs on tenaciously given the right circumstances.

It really can. I don’t think YVR has been above 40°F since before Christmas.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If pigs could fly, people who got shat on by pigeons would consider it no big deal.

I think the scenario of more cold winters up there is more likely.  

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's standard fare in a cold-winter climate. West side only gets winters cold enough every decade or two.

Ground is still snow-covered here. Got some more flurries this afternoon, in fact. Bet the potholes will be showing up now that the thaw finally seems to be settling in.

It’s also standard fare in places with large temperature/humidity swings in the winter.

The roads are a f**king disaster out here every winter/spring. Once hit a pothole so hard on I-270 that it shredded my tire on the spot.

[Blizzard777]

46 and currently at my low for the day 34*

4.42 in the bucket for the month.  Yard is purging lots O water! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It really can. I don’t think YVR has been above 40°F since before Christmas.

And Sumas/Abbottsford is even quite a bit colder.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It really can. I don’t think YVR has been above 40°F since before Christmas.

Just checked and I'm wrong. But it's still been awfully chilly and the snow is just hanging on, despite there being a few melty days thrown in there.

[Geos]

37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

M

Wow! Maybe that explains the under reporting of snow at Stevens.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the scenario of more cold winters up there is more likely.  

It's impossible to say for sure what the future holds, but the odds sure seem against a long-term pattern change towards significantly colder winters.

I do not expect to see another winter this cold and snowy for a number of years, if ever.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's impossible to say for sure what the future holds, but the odds sure seem against it.

I do not expect to see another winter this cold and snowy for a number of years.

We'll just have to wait and see.  If the solar cycle is the cause more cold winters could easily happen.  There's also a chance Mother Nature could turn on a dime and go into a global cooling phase.  Nobody knows.

[snow_wizard]

Already an impressive degree of ensemble spread by day 5 on this run.  Love seeing uncertainty.  

[snow_wizard]

Down to 33 now.  

[Cloud]

Glad to be having some dry and clear weather right now. BFI already down to 35. Still a bit warmer at SEA at 40. 36 here. 

[Geos]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

went and bought a maul and a bunch more ice melt at lowe's this evening.  had to dukes of hazzard that berm to get out the driveway, as solid as a speed bump but the Outback was like no problem.  tomorrow I will make that ice berm my b*tch.

 

25 and partly cloudy out.  that berm thinks its sleeping well tonight while refreezing today's slight melt.  HA HA HA i'll have the last laugh BERM!

That sounds like one tough berm. I had experiences with those in the Midwest if I didn't get to moving that nasty road snow pushed over by the plows off the driveway. Document the removal, would like to see it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting choice.  When I did February rankings after 2019 it came up as the best since 1923.  My rankings are based on cold, duration, intensity of cold, snowfall amount, days with snow on the ground, etc.

Given the choice though I would take 1989 over either 1923 or 2019.  The cold was just so freeking epic. 

No question that in the period of record we have 1884 was hands down the best February we've had.  I would take that over any other.

Prism shows February 1929 as the coldest in the 1893-present period with 2019 #2 for my location.  I remember when I looked at northern areas 1923 was up there for cold, maybe even at the top. 

[SnowWillarrive]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  If the solar cycle is the cause more cold winters could easily happen.  There's also a chance Mother Nature could turn on a dime and go into a global cooling phase.  Nobody knows.

What’s currently going on with the sun? I thought it was getting active again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 2019 was something else. It’s easily the most consistently cold month I can think of. December 2013 and January 2017 both had colder monthly means, but they had some warm ups. After the 2nd, the temp never got above 40 until around March 10th. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Geos said:

That sounds like one tough berm. I had experiences with those in the Midwest if I didn't get to moving that nasty road snow pushed over by the plows off the driveway. Document the removal, would like to see it.

Need to swing that splitting maul like your life depends on it. Lol.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Prism shows February 1929 as the coldest in the 1893-present period with 2019 #2 for my location.  I remember when I looked at northern areas 1923 was up there for cold, maybe even at the top. 

1929 was utterly fantastic here.  We had the epic snow and cold at the end of January, a big snow on Feb 1, and then two weeks of cold and clear with snow on the ground.  Given that setup going into it I would certainly choose that one as my top pick.

[Geos]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Need to swing that splitting maul like your life depends on it. Lol.

I've owned some ice choppers that do a good job. 

Nice crescent moon out tonight over Issaquah. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What’s currently going on with the sun? I thought it was getting active again.

It's not the 11 year cycle I'm talking.  It's the so called grand minimum and grand maximum cycle.  That is a much longer cycle, and we are currently in a place of very deep minimums and low maximums.  Combined the last two minima were the lowest in almost 200 years.  Going to be very interested to see how this current 11 year cycle plays out.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's not the 11 year cycle I'm talking.  It's the so called grand minimum and grand maximum cycle.  That is a much longer cycle, and we are currently in a place of very deep minimums and low maximums.  Combined the last two minima were the lowest in almost 200 years.  Going to be very interested to see how this current 11 year cycle plays out.

Does seem like the last few winters have been decent. Excited to see how this plays out. 

[gusky]

Just checked and temp is down to 35.6 here! We'll see if tonight beats yesterday's low of 34.5

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

20 minutes ago, Geos said:

That sounds like one tough berm. I had experiences with those in the Midwest if I didn't get to moving that nasty road snow pushed over by the plows off the driveway. Document the removal, would like to see it.

My berm Friday was about 3.5 feet high, all the way across the driveway of course, no way around it, and it was about 10 feet deep (from the road toward the house).  Had to dig most of it out before I could drive over the remnants. 

I work a night shift, and was blocked out from my house as a result.  To get to a shovel, I had to cross it to get to my garage.  Can't try to walk over it, as one of your legs could sink in all the way, and you can't really pull it out as you have nothing to grab onto for leverage.  So I had to lie on top of it and roll to the other side.  

What's underneath is a thick ice "curb".  Easy to drive over it, hard for the snowblower to go over it as my driveway has an incline to it.. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

My berm Friday was about 3.5 feet high, all the way across the driveway of course, no way around it, and it was about 10 feet deep (from the road toward the house).  Had to dig most of it out before I could drive over the remnants. 

I work a night shift, and was blocked out from my house as a result.  To get to a shovel, I had to cross it to get to my garage.  Can't try to walk over it, as one of your legs could sink in all the way, and you can't really pull it out as you have nothing to grab onto for leverage.  So I had to lie on top of it and roll to the other side.  

What's underneath is a thick ice "curb".  Easy to drive over it, hard for the snowblower to go over it as my driveway has an incline to it.. 

You are definitely to pain in the arse stage now.  It stops being fun when you get to a certain point.

[snow_wizard]

GEFS is looking a lot more like the EPS now.  Much more robust positive anom over the GOA.  Looks like we're going to avoid a gross weather pattern for a good part of the month.  What's being shown on the GEFS will eventually get somewhere very good late in the month.

This evolution should be good for OR to join in when the cold comes.  This should be better for inversions in the fairly near future as well.

[SnarkyGoblin]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Unless this is a regime change.  Back in the day they were much more common...especially in the area with heavy Fraser outflow influence.

I feel like this is wishful thinking.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting choice.  When I did February rankings after 2019 it came up as the best since 1923.  My rankings are based on cold, duration, intensity of cold, snowfall amount, days with snow on the ground, etc.

Given the choice though I would take 1989 over either 1923 or 2019.  The cold was just so freeking epic. 

No question that in the period of record we have 1884 was hands down the best February we've had.  I would take that over any other.

The over running snow storm after the arctic outbreak in 1923 was epic on southern Vancouver island.  40”+ at a lot of stations. 

[Geos]

17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

My berm Friday was about 3.5 feet high, all the way across the driveway of course, no way around it, and it was about 10 feet deep (from the road toward the house).  Had to dig most of it out before I could drive over the remnants. 

I work a night shift, and was blocked out from my house as a result.  To get to a shovel, I had to cross it to get to my garage.  Can't try to walk over it, as one of your legs could sink in all the way, and you can't really pull it out as you have nothing to grab onto for leverage.  So I had to lie on top of it and roll to the other side.  

What's underneath is a thick ice "curb".  Easy to drive over it, hard for the snowblower to go over it as my driveway has an incline to it.. 

That sounds more like a wall! Never dealt with that extreme before. I take it that US 2 is clear up to Leavenworth now. The town get some food shipments in yet?

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

I feel like this is wishful thinking.

It just depends what the cause is.  The big X factor right now is solar.  You also have the ever present fact that climate change has been a constant for millions of years.  There are natural warm periods and natural cold periods.  You just never know when a flip is about to happen.

One thing we do know is that much colder and much snowier winters were more common in the recent past.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The over running snow storm after the arctic outbreak in 1923 was epic on southern Vancouver island.  40”+ at a lot of stations. 

It was big in the Seattle area too, but not that big.  Interestingly there was a nice snowfall in late January 1923 that effected some areas near Seattle and that snow was on the ground right up to the big event in February.  In general the winters of 1921-22 and 1922-23 were amazing here.  I presume the same is true up there.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just depends what the cause is.  The big X factor right now is solar.  You also have the ever present fact that climate change has been a constant for millions of years.  There are natural warm periods and natural cold periods.  You just never know when a flip is about to happen.

One thing we do know is that much colder and much snowier winters were more common in the recent past.

I can think of many more “x-factors” than just solar.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I can think of many more “x-factors” than just solar.

Very true, but that is one variable that is outside of the normal closed system that constitutes our weather.

[snow_wizard]

Some interesting analogs tonight that were associated with nice events here.  Both ends of Jan 1980, Jan 1985, Jan 1962, and Jan 1963 are a few examples.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 31 now and totally clear.  Can't remember the last night where that happened, except part of one night during the cold wave.

[snow_wizard]

Decent ECMWF run and continued improvement on the EPS.  It's going to be showtime again pretty soon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Decent ECMWF run and continued improvement on the EPS.  It's going to be showtime again pretty soon.

 

round 2 is coming ppl

[snow drift]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Decent ECMWF run and continued improvement on the EPS.  It's going to be showtime again pretty soon.

It's definitely coming. You can't shut us out this year. We have too many things in our favor.