PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

Blocking in January?  OMG!

[jakerepp]

Meanwhile, was up to 35.6 around 7pm but back to 33.8 now. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Crazy, don't remember this. 

I wondered how Tim had pics of Jan 2017 with so much snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Meanwhile, was up to 35.6 around 7pm but back to 33.8 now. 

Down to 27.3 here.  The GFS nailed this a few days ago.  Really cold air to tap into from Central WA.

[Killahkarl]

Check out NWS Richmond, All models been showing epic storm but this what they say.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

Its not NWS Seattle's fault, its protocol.

[Gummy]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Crazy, don't remember this. 

I remember it, because Sea-Tac recorded snow, but a lot of folks on here went out of their way to point out it was not widespread. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Not much wind at home and 32 degrees. Might be able to hold onto our 35/20 spread for the day. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I have noticed since moving to MV that the GFS generally does horrible with east wind events. The Euro is far, far superior in that regard. I don't know how many times there has been a legit strong east wind event and the GFS completely fails to pick it up. I realize that may be the opposite of tomorrow night's situation but it doesn't lend itself to high confidence considering that is the main factor keeping us cold enough for snow and it generally handles it atrociously. 

If the Euro trends stronger with the east wind over the next 24 hours or so of runs the stars could align for a good heavy snowfall, mainly for the EPSL I would imagine. Otherwise, if it continues to just be the GFS, call me highly skeptical.

The GFS was the first to show our area would be so cold tonight.  ECMWF has been playing catch up lately.

Also....the 18z ECMWF was much better than earlier runs.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not much wind at home and 32 degrees. Might be able to hold onto our 35/20 spread for the day. 

Are you still stuck?   My wife had to get to MN today because her dad is sick and she booked a flight at 8 a.m. on Alaska that was canceled but they rescheduled her on another flight a few hours later and she is there now.   I can't believe there gave you no options.

[Hawksfan2008]

GFS starting to get support! This model did great with the snow last week in the EPSL. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Will there be snow on the ground tommrow morning?

[MWG]

I just didn't want to go back to work in this conditions. Rather stay home with all the rain coming. 

 

[SeanNyberg]

4 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GFS starting to get support! This model did great with the snow last week in the EPSL. 

Listen, I want snow as much as the next person, I'm also in the east portion of central puget sound. So, I'm in a good spot for potential snow. BUT can we please stop using 10:1 for models for the next 48 hours out. Kuchera might be less colorful, but it's far more appropriate with these events that are right on the edge.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Will there be snow on the ground tommrow morning?

Try this.  http://ouija-board.net/index.php

[MossMan]

I had a little snow 5yrs ago today! Also a live view from my house. I was doing some night ice chipping off another portion of my roof. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

31 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Crazy, don't remember this. 

I remember it. I think I had about 3”, but places just a mile south had twice as much.

[GHweatherChris]

[Omegaraptor]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

There are a few places I would like to see official weather stations set up.  I think both WA and OR have some spots that have incredible mins that aren't fully realized.  I've always wanted to see one in Liberty WA.  It sits in a deep valley at over 2000 feet elevation and always has heavy snow cover in the winter.

NE WA definitely has some intriguing spots, especially since they have much better access to primo vodka Arctic air than, say, SE OR / NE CA, which rely on radiational cooling much more because the primo Arctic air often doesn’t make it that far (not to say amazing things can’t happen when it does - see Dec 2013). Reflects very well in the average high temps - also that Winthrop with a record low of -48°F is at just 1700’.

A ton of spots up there with huge potential that don’t have stations.

[GHweatherChris]

11 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen, I want snow as much as the next person, I'm also in the east portion of central puget sound. So, I'm in a good spot for potential snow. BUT can we please stop using 10:1 for models for the next 48 hours out. Kuchera might be less colorful, but it's far more appropriate with these events that are right on the edge.

This comment does not meet our community standards.

[Omegaraptor]

-8 in Lakeview right now. Same time last night it was 14 above.

[seattleweatherguy]

13 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen, I want snow as much as the next person, I'm also in the east portion of central puget sound. So, I'm in a good spot for potential snow. BUT can we please stop using 10:1 for models for the next 48 hours out. Kuchera might be less colorful, but it's far more appropriate with these events that are right on the edge.

So what is the difference between using 10:1 ratios vs another?

[snow_wizard]

26.4 now.  Wasn't expecting this.

[TacomaWaWx]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you still stuck?   My wife had to get to MN today because her dad is sick and she booked a flight at 8 a.m. on Alaska that was canceled but they rescheduled her on another flight a few hours later and she is there now.   I can't believe there gave you no options.

Yeah I’m in texas…so far my flight hasn’t been canceled. I fly to Boise tomorrow then Spokane…my brother is picking me up from there. Should be home early Monday morning and the drive over might be pretty interesting. 

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

26.4 now.  Wasn't expecting this.

Crazy.  35 here and seemingly going up.

[The Winter Warlock]

24.4 here on the East side.

[Killahkarl]

ecmwf agrees with gfs!

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

So what is the difference between using 10:1 ratios vs another?

The 10:1 maps assume that all snow falling will not only accumulate but will accumulate at a 10:1 ratio regardless of temperature. So 0.5” of rain would be 5” of snow. The Kuchera maps combine other factors to try to more accurately predict the ratio. In borderline scenarios the Kuchera map will show less snow and with very cold temperatures it will show more.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m in texas…so far my flight hasn’t been canceled. I fly to Boise tomorrow then Spokane…my brother is picking me up from there. Should be home early Monday morning and the drive over might be pretty interesting. 

Its unbelievable that they could not get you from Dallas to Seattle.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28.0

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m in texas…so far my flight hasn’t been canceled. I fly to Boise tomorrow then Spokane…my brother is picking me up from there. Should be home early Monday morning and the drive over might be pretty interesting. 

Did they give you some sort of huge travel voucher at least? That’s inexcusable.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF just a tad better than the 18z.  Every run gets a little better.  Precip rates are pretty nuts tomorrow night.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Vs GFS

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m in texas…so far my flight hasn’t been canceled. I fly to Boise tomorrow then Spokane…my brother is picking me up from there. Should be home early Monday morning and the drive over might be pretty interesting. 

That drive might be impossible.  This is going to be a cold firehose.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

26.4 now.  Wasn't expecting this.

ECMWF clearly shows cold air this evening in the EPSL... but it starts warming up before dawn.  

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I’m in texas…so far my flight hasn’t been canceled. I fly to Boise tomorrow then Spokane…my brother is picking me up from there. Should be home early Monday morning and the drive over might be pretty interesting. 

Getting over the pass late tomorrow night might not be possible.  

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

18z showed a weird area of heavy wet snow in the valley-- would you mind sharing the maps for further south?

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF just a tad better than the 18z.  Every run gets a little better.  Precip rates are pretty nuts tomorrow night.

Luckily I’ll be driving to Corvallis during the day so well before that monster hits us. I would not want to be driving anywhere during the night... especially not over a pass.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like the ECMWF is playing catch up to the GFS right now.  This run clearly has the east wind influence tomorrow night.  I'm not highly confident about my area tomorrow night, but I think places N and NNW of here might do quite well.  Here....maybe.

Monday night through Wednesday have potential for pretty much everyone in the Puget Sound region.