PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Weiner Warrior]

Reminder that GFS and EURO don't start frozen precip until early tomorrow morning I believe.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the pattern over the Pacific is rapidly improving on the EPS after day 10.  Trough pulls way back to the Western Pacific.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the pattern over the Pacific is rapidly improving on the EPS after day 10.  Trough pulls way back to the Western Pacific.  

Yeah... this looks much quieter.     Just depressing that we have to get through a week of heavy rain first. 

[Blizzard777]

Current mood of my wind dial 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[TT-SEA]

The control run is getting interesting again towards the end of the run...

 

[The Swamp]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Ya, we know how marginal works….pass.  Bring back the arctic air and frozen tundra!

It will be back this winter.  I have a feeling we are going to get a true arctic blast from the Frasier River Valley before this is all over.

I crave it.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Windy and rainy.

These models that showed snow, good gosh, not even close.

Do they not factor in southwest winds?

You're south of the east wind zone, so you'll probably just see rain.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this looks much quieter.     Just depressing that we have to get through a week of heavy rain first. 

You went to Hawaii when it snowed. I hope it rains a lot.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

They probably will get cold for a little while before our turn comes again.

[Jean Ralphios Ghost]

Jay Albrecht on board for snow tonight (in certain areas): https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1477727095715336192?s=20

Sorry, don't know how to get link to show up as picture....

[MossMan]

I would like to order up a late January 1996 redux please and thank you. 

[joelgombiner]

Surface temps in the central Puget Sound are actually running a little colder than the GFS predicted for this time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

It's no secret that after we have a good cold spell the east usually is next. You need a experimental model for that? Hahahaha..

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

They probably will get cold for a little while before our turn comes again.

We deserve some cold and/or snow. Hoping for another shot mid-Jan since I’m missing out on tomorrow.  

Should see a more La Niña like pattern resume in late Jan/Feb, as much as it pains me to say it. The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is just an intraseasonal waffle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

It will be back this winter.  I have a feeling we are going to get a true arctic blast from the Frasier River Valley before this is all over.

I crave it.

A large part of the region just had the coldest Fraser outflow in 40 years, doubtful that gets beat this year. I'm sure there will be a few more fun times ahead though.

[RayRay]

Car stuck in ditch. slid down the drive way.. oops.

[TT-SEA]

Light sleet and light rain now.

[Hawksfan2008]

Flurries/Sleet have begun in North Bend! 

[RayRay]

sleet right now but when heavy precipitation kicks in probably will transition back to snow...

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Light sleet and light rain now.

Good timing  

[snow_wizard]

As horrible as the ECMWF looked at least it's still chilly through Wednesday night with some snow chances.

[MossMan]

I will take last Thursday over today. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Jaya is putting some skin in the game. 4-8 inches for EPSL? Pretty strong call from him there. 

 

I figured somebody at the NWS office had to be thinking this way.  Just too much cold air to the east to ignore it.

[RayRay]

13 inches predicted by ECWMF in my area tonight/Monday early AM. uh oh.

[RentonHill]

EPS grams vs 00z. Warmer and wetter before we get to see the good stuff come into range. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A large part of the region just had the coldest Fraser outflow in 40 years, doubtful that gets beat this year. I'm sure there will be a few more fun times ahead though.

It didn't have quite the bite that Feb 1989 or Dec 1990 had from Seattle south, but still very decent and very good duration.  Dec 2008 was kind of a tie IMO.  That one had some help from the east too.  This was pure Fraser until now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

EPS grams vs 00z. Warmer and wetter before we get to see the good stuff come into range. 

Yeah....For now we just need to keep an eye on the 500mb progression.  It's getting better over the Pacific in the 10 to 15 day range, but it will take longer than it looked yesterday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

We deserve some cold and/or snow. Hoping for another shot mid-Jan since I’m missing out on tomorrow.  

Should see a more La Niña like pattern resume in late Jan/Feb, as much as it pains me to say it. The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is just an intraseasonal waffle.

Absolutely you do.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, RayRay said:

sleet right now but when heavy precipitation kicks in probably will transition back to snow...

Do you need help?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, RayRay said:

Car stuck in ditch. slid down the drive way.. oops.

Do you need some help?

[joelgombiner]

Radar looks dynamic. 

[MWG]

Currently 34F and sunny low for the day was 27F.

[Hawksfan2008]

All snow in North Bend now but going to need the high precip rates to overcome the dry air 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's very rare but today we're getting a west flow trickle of cold air draining out if the river valleys of the Olympics.  I'm feeling a huge snow event here tonight.  Still 32 degrees at 12:25 and calm winds. The calm wind is the key right now.

[crf450ish]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Banned.

O

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....For now we just need to keep an eye on the 500mb progression.  It's getting better over the Pacific in the 10 to 15 day range, but it will take longer than it looked yesterday.

Lots of new people here may not be well versed in the 500mb map interpretations so I think the grams are a good way to help translate

[GHweatherChris]

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

All snow in North Bend now but going to need the high precip rates to overcome the dry air 

Some kind of strange mix of everything up here... but precip looks like its about to end per the radar.  

[MossMan]

Sloppy Snow flakes falling from the sky!

Temp 37.2 DP 33.1.