PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

35 in Everett at 2 PM really stands out to me. That’s significantly cooler than I expected and the South winds have been much weaker than anticipated. 

I like the chances for heavy wet slushy accumulations (2-5”) above about 300-400 feet North of Seattle and East of 405 tonight after about 8 PM. It’ll take some luck to get closer to sea level or Seattle South.

One of those situations where 2 degrees cooler doubles those totally and 2 degrees warmer makes all rain below 1,000 feet and in the foothills. Crazy boom and bust potential.

Pretty hard to ignore how cold it is over Central WA right now.  The GFS has done the best at picking up on that cold bleeding through the passes.  I think even it has underestimated slightly though.

[snow_wizard]

The thing that worries me about my area is being on the southern edge of the cold outflow area sometimes the cold is too shallow to allow for snow here.  Not sure how this one will play out here.  Doesn't looks quite cold enough for ZR at least.  Could be close though.

[Hawksfan2008]

First real band about to hit  

[SeanNyberg]

Redmond down to 33, from a high of 37 earlier today.

That's a nice drop. I live in downtown Bellevue, but my fiancé teaches at Redmond High School and he would love an extended winter vacation. lol

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Redmond down to 33, from a high of 37 earlier today.

That's a nice drop. I live in downtown Bellevue, but my fiancé teaches at Redmond High School and he would love an extended winter vacation. lol

Wow! Impressive how far the cold is extending. 

[The Ms. Anthrop]

Positively dumping at Lumen right now, temp went from 39 to 36. The flags in the stadium are all flat, but the fair north parking tower flag is flying hard from the east. Glad this is a 1:30 game, not a SNF.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it might have peaked at 35.1 here.  Now back down to 34.5.  I love the east wind in times like this.

[Ray]

Just returned to Bonney Lake from a round trip to Bellingham.  It was 43 when I left and is 46 currently.  The lowest temperature was 34 degrees near the highway 16 exit to the Southworth Ferry and 37 in Bremerton by the ferry dock.  Didn't notice any wind there or back.  On a different note it will be interesting to see how things unfold overnight and into tomorrow.

[smerfylicious]

Holding steady here at about 35. About 4.5" of snow left in the glacial till that is my front yard. 1/2" still on the roof. I guess we'll see what happens from here!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Warm air finally invaded here. 34 degrees light rain. Already wishing we had stayed a few more days on the east side lol!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39 after briefly hitting 42 earlier. Walking around the property and there is a lot of tree damage from the weight of the snow. 

[crf450ish]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was cold enough that a gallon jug of water I had in my car froze solid during the cold wave.  That includes driving it short distances on most days too.

That's pretty cool. When I lived east of the hill, I would regularly forget my coffee mug in my truck only to remember it the next morning and find a solid lump of frozen coffee in it... An INSULATED yeti tumbler, that is . 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Absolutely zero mention of any snow tonight or tomorrow morning in the afternoon NWS discussion.  

[MNoggle81]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

They don't even say a word about east winds. Nothing. Kind of odd.

Well they did just issue a coastal flood advisory lol

[seattleweatherguy]

35 here dp 32 rain 

[Hawksfan2008]

Apparently North Bend doesn’t exist in the NWS eyes. 30 degrees with a light east wind. We’re gonna get hammered. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The NWS has been horrific since JAYA left….. #bringbackJAYA

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Apparently North Bend doesn’t exist in the NWS eyes. 30 degrees with a light east wind. We’re gonna get hammered. 

Not sure we are going to get hammered.    East wind will probably limit overall precip as well.     Everett might get more snow than North Bend.     The front is through before dawn tomorrow and then the wind switches to SW.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

For some reason I really want the NWS to bust this forecast tonight.  Normally I could care less.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure we are going to get hammered.    East wind will probably limit overall precip as well.     Everett might get more snow than North Bend.     The front is through before dawn tomorrow and then the wind switches to SW.  

We'll have to wait and see if we really get hosed like the models are showing or not.  Tough call.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Shelton back down to 34 from 37 about 30 minutes ago.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The NWS has been horrific since JAYA left….. #bringbackJAYA

I have to say they have blown a lot calls lately.  Even the wind advisory for this area last night.  That gradient angle never brings that much wind south of Everett or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The NWS has been horrific since JAYA left….. #bringbackJAYA

If I was retired with a nice federal pension, the last thing I would do is go back!

[FroYoBro]

South wind finally really broke through here in the last hour. Jumped all the way up to 50 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We'll have to wait and see if we really get hosed like the models are showing or not.  Tough call.

East wind will definitely limit precip out here.    The only exception would be a massive overrunning situation like we had February 2019.   This is just a standard frontal passage.    The east wind always cuts our precip totals in this situation even when its just rain.   There will be a period of heavier precip right around the frontal passage but it will be moving through fairly quickly. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dark green radar over me and barely anything falling out of the sky.

[Fircrest]

Southerly winds have arrived, 43 degrees with water running down my downspouts. At least no water backing up into the house from ice dams.  Don't think Tacoma will see any snow tonight or tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

They don't even say a word about east winds. Nothing. Kind of odd.

It's kind of like having a pink elephant in the room and pretending it's not there.  The cold banked up against the east slopes right now is pretty exceptional.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The high wind warning here has been off a little, peak wind gust 4 mph.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

East wind will definitely limit precip out here.    The only exception would be a massive overrunning situation like we had February 2019.   This is just a standard frontal passage.    The east wind always cuts our precip totals in this situation even when its just rain.   There will be a period of heavier precip right around the frontal passage but it will be moving through fairly quickly. 

You could be right, but the GFS and ECMWF both show pretty hefty amounts falling in our area.  Can't wait to see how this plays out.  Kind of a fascinating situation.

[KingstonWX]

If NWS ends up being right, I really need to know what the heck they are looking at. 

[snow maniac]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dark green radar over me and barely anything falling out of the sky.

Same thing here.

[snow_wizard]

GFS is much nicer for week two.  Strong ridge with an inversion and then a block explodes over the GOA.  Still a lot of hope for a decent Jan.

[SnowHawks]

I am retired , with a federal pension and your right-I don't want to go back!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

If NWS ends up being right, I really need to know what the heck they are looking at. 

They could end up right, but not even mentioning the possibility is almost irresponsible IMO.

[snow_wizard]

I kind of stunned I may end up with a 35/26 day today.  Not half bad!

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

If NWS ends up being right, I really need to know what the heck they are looking at. 

Their baby, the UW WRF GFS

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could be right, but the GFS and ECMWF both show pretty hefty amounts falling in our area.  Can't wait to see how this plays out.  Kind of a fascinating situation.

I am sure we will get some decent snow here... I just think areas to the north and west might actually get more.

[Bryant]

8 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

I am retired , with a federal pension and your right-I don't want to go back!

Maybe just go back for an English class? Just kidding

[SilverFallsAndrew]

End of the GFS looks nice!