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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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40 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1

Cliff Mass is not even listening to his baby, the UW WRF GFS.

Cliff has gone insane.

 

ww_msnow48.48.0000.gif

ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

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1 minute ago, RayRay said:

Cliff Mass is not even listening to his baby, the UW WRF GFS.

Cliff has gone insane.

 

ww_msnow48.48.0000.gif

ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

He did listen to the WRF, but it's necessary to take into account the difference between snowfall and snow depth. The WRF map shows barely a dusting for most of the central sound, which would amount to practically no actual increase in depth/accumulation. ww_snodep.36.0000.gif

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, gusky said:

He did listen to the WRF, but it's necessary to take into account the difference between snowfall and snow depth. The WRF map shows barely a dusting for most of the central sound, which would amount to practically no actual increase in depth/accumulation. ww_snodep.36.0000.gif

He's a great educator, not a great forecaster.
This forum loves meteorology and most of us are located in the PNW. We've been seeing him and listening to him for over a decade. He does wonderful research and is a fabulous professor, but he has a track record of busted forecasts. Will he be right about tonight? Sure! He very well could be. Does that change years and years of seeing his forecasts fall flat on their faces? No.
Hey, I'm a UW graduate. Love the school love the faculty, but I'm not blinded by the purple and gold. 

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Just now, SeanNyberg said:

He's a great educator, not a great forecaster.
This forum loves meteorology and most of us are located in the PNW. We've been seeing him and listening to him for over a decade. He does wonderful research and is a fabulous professor, but he has a track record of busted forecasts. Will he be right about tonight? Sure! He very well could be. Does that change years and years of seeing his forecasts fall flat on their faces? No.
Hey, I'm a UW graduate. Love the school love the faculty, but I'm not blinded by the purple and gold. 

I'm a ducks fan, so I'm certainly not biased towards him (although my view on sports has nothing to do with my views on academics). He's not perfect, but neither is any met. He does his best to make a prediction with the information he has, which is often earlier than a lot of other mets and yeah, it does lead to inaccurate forecasting at times. In the end, he's helped inspire countless young people to learn more about meteorology (myself included), and his blogs have been a huge help to people around the region. My only issues with his blog are his ego (not gonna go into that any more than what I just wrote) and his overuse of the WRF. People on here seem to be a bit too harsh on him in general though.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Oh man, my temp has spiked .5 degree in the last 30 minutes. I'm screwed.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Honestly the front looks ahead of schedule and not really stalling, looks to be moving along to the east fast. 

We want that thing to stall out over Puget Sound as long as possible. That would allow the colder air behind it to catch up to the moisture plume and turn it into a snowy anafront.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

We want that thing to stall out over Puget Sound as long as possible. That would allow the colder air behind it to catch up to the moisture plume and turn it into a snowy anafront.

The cold air cumulus batch behind sure looks healthy.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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11 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Oh man, my temp has spiked .5 degree in the last 30 minutes. I'm screwed.

Now I'm up another .5 in the 11 minutes since I typed this. Shoot!

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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36 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

925mb (83).gif

Those will drop here with heavy precip onset.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Its a bit windy here

Easterly?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Oh man, my temp has spiked .5 degree in the last 30 minutes. I'm screwed.

It's going to drop when the heavy precip kicks in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Now I'm up another .5 in the 11 minutes since I typed this. Shoot!

Don’t sweat the little temp fluctuations the next couple hours. It’s inevitable with the kind of dynamic front moving in and all this colder and warmer air sloshing around. What matters is what temps do after 7PM or so as the heaviest moisture moves in.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The ECMWF is very bullish on Wednesday night.  Another thing to note is the 18z GFS was really cold with the trough on the 8th/9th.  Something to watch there due to some ensemble support.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Don’t sweat the little temp fluctuations the next couple hours. It’s inevitable with the kind of dynamic front moving in and all this colder and warmer air sloshing around. What matters is what temps do after 7PM or so as the heaviest moisture moves in.

I'm not actually sweating it, but I have jumped 2.4 degrees in 50 minutes surprised me.

  • Sun 1

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel like punching myself in the face, I could of stayed at my cabin, yes I'm being a baby right now. Hahaha

This could still work out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This could still work out.

Definitely! We are still a couple of hours away from the goodies! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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51F and cloudy.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF... but it showed a total of .54 in precip at SEA between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. and there has only been .02 so far.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

BOOM 32.9 with heavy wet snow falling. Has taken about 20 minutes to transition back to snow from moderate rain. 

Your area may do well. ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what is going on with the ECMWF... but it showed a total of .54 in precip at SEA between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m. and there has only been .02 so far.  

Everett has gotten 0.44” in the last 3 hours so there’s definitely been plenty of moisture around.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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