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PNW January 2022, Unoriginal Thread Title


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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Convection during an east wind outflow event.  Never seen that before.

I really have no idea what to expect. Precipitation rates certainly look heavy enough to overcome the east wind, even if just for a bit. I'll definitely be up to watch it! 

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Just now, Bryant said:

Makes me laugh when people just chose to outright not believe the models because they think they know better

GFS is pretty much the ONLY model predicting sub freezing temps... not claiming to have unique knowledge, I'm quite new to meteorology, but I'm basing this off of patterns that have been observed for a long time about the GFS.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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48F here with the south winds gusting to over 30 mph. None of that sweet sweet gorge influence this far west. Should still be a pretty good dump of snow in the coast range though. Might take a drive out there later if the conditions look interesting later. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Convection during an east wind outflow event.  Never seen that before.

We had thundersnow with a roaring east wind during the big event in February 2019.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We have falling 850s and 925s through the night on top of east wind cooling effect.  Decent chances.

True, and I certainly hope that it's enough to drive the snow level down sufficiently. I doubt it, but I definitely want it.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, gusky said:

GFS is pretty much the ONLY model predicting sub freezing temps... not claiming to have unique knowledge, I'm quite new to meteorology, but I'm basing this off of patterns that have been observed for a long time about the GFS.

Will probably see a mix at best for most of the Central Puget Sound.

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3 minutes ago, gusky said:

Agreed, DPs are not really low enough to sufficiently cool down the air in heavy precip. You're thinking no accumulation at all for Seattle metro? I was thinking an inch or so is still possible later.

This isn’t an evaporative cooling based event so the high DP’s aren’t really an issue. Still super borderline no matter what but that isn’t where our cooling would come from.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bryant said:

Makes me laugh when people just chose to outright not believe the models because they think they know better

Indeed.  There are a lot of moving parts to this.  Unlike anything I've seen quite frankly.  Not your typical Seattle area warmup.  In fact models show it may not top 40 after this evening until Thursday.  Some places didn't even make 40 today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had thundersnow with a roaring east wind during the big event in February 2019.

I was not aware of that.  Incredible event out your way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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.26" rain in the last hour. Temp dropping steadily since 5:45 or so.

Just looked outside and heavy rain with some very wet flakes mixed in.

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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We've dropped 3 degrees in an hour with 0.20" of precipitation here in North Seattle. This is vertical advection, with heavy precipitation dragging down cold air from higher levels. The GFS shows our wind swinging around to the SE overnight, which should help to bring in some cold air from the side as well :). Combine the two effects and we could get snow. 

The air is mostly saturated now so there's not much evaporative cooling going on. 

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2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This isn’t an evaporative cooling based event so the high DP’s aren’t really an issue. Still super borderline no matter what but that isn’t where our cooling would come from.

I still think some aspects of this are like what happened in Portland a couple of weeks ago.  Snowed due to heavy precip rates with VERY marginal mid level temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, RayRay said:

More thunder and incredible snow rates. Big flakes and its absolutely dumping. Was a good idea to practice putting on chains!

Wasn't Snowmizer talking about punching himself in the face for not leaving town about an hour ago? 😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Temp down to 35 with a few slushy splats at times!!

Very good sign.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Agreed, DPs are not really low enough to sufficiently cool down the air in heavy precip. You're thinking no accumulation at all for Seattle metro? I was thinking an inch or so is still possible later.

Maybe a window of opportunity during the late night hours when the models attempt to cool the boundary layer. The GFS is isothermal around freezing but I think this is part of it's cold bias. The ECMWF is very marginal with temps in the mid to upper 30s thus showing mixed precipitation unfolding. Rain/snow mix with the possibility of light accumulations but I don't anticipate anything significant. Will have to monitor the radar.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Can confirm from the south valley

Now you get to see first hand how it can be down here. Good thing we managed a miracle earlier.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 26F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 11 (Most recent: Jan 9, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2021)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Issaquah, Lake Washington, Mercer Island school districts all two hours delays.
 

If this rain flips to snow tonight, even for like 30 mins, they'll cancel. (These delays were due to driving conditions, not covid)

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   T:   @SeanNyberg

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  There are a lot of moving parts to this.  Unlike anything I've seen quite frankly.  Not your typical Seattle area warmup.  In fact models show it may not top 40 after this evening until Thursday.  Some places didn't even make 40 today.

Sure would be nice to get those heavier returns over east king county. 

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2 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Issaquah, Lake Washington, Mercer Island school districts all two hours delays.
 

If this rain flips to snow tonight, even for like 30 mins, they'll cancel. (These delays were due to driving conditions, not covid)

Bellingham schools 2 hour delay as well

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36 at 4pm, 39.7 at 5:42, 36.3 now.

Heavy mix here as well. Over half an inch since 5pm.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 55.2

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 11

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 5

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.5''

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Probably the most insane 2 hrs of snow in my life at home! 6 thunders and 4 inches of snow already! Yes Tim I'm glad a made the decision to not punch my face lol

Some real 1/10/17 rates I'd assume! So heavy that you can't even see down the street-- hope it keeps up for you.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just called them and the guy eas excited about the thunder snow. I told him about the forum and he actually said how impressed he was of our knowledge.  He's a lurker!

Guess I shouldn't talk so much sh*t then lol

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Friend just sent me this. 200 foot elevation in Silverdale.

 

ADFB125B-06CB-4512-81DD-230CD6930DA9.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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