PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[seattleweatherguy]

33 degrees here

[Geos]

10 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Getting reports of 6" of new powder at 200 feet. I think that counts as lowlands. Might be up to a foot by the time this wraps, conveniently when I'm due to drive home.

O wow, I hope you have a good vehicle for the snow. Those higher spots in Bothell were getting tricky to drive on and I have a 2010 Outback.

[snow_wizard]

One thing that really kills me is it's colder here than a lot of the places getting snow.  Just sucks.

One of these times I'll write up the long winded explanation of why that happens here.

[smerfylicious]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it was obvious some places were going to score.  My call earlier was Kitsap County, NW King County, Western Snohomish County would all see snow with SW King County on the bubble.  Worked out just that way.

I really wish I had known about this shallow cold air problem here before we bought this place.  We hold onto cold quite well here, but in cases like this I get screwed on snow 90% of the time.

Welp you could always mosey on up over here! We have some real interesting weather to say the least.

[smerfylicious]

2 minutes ago, Geos said:

O wow, I hope you have a good vehicle for the snow. Those higher spots in Bothell were getting tricky to drive on and I have a 2010 Outback.

I have a Forester, and 3 years of experience delivering pizza in the Renton/Fairview area, during the 2008 snowpocalypse haha.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Still nothing here. In terms of accumulation 

That really surprises me.  What part of Bothell?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Welp you could always mosey on up over here! We have some real interesting weather to say the least.

I'll get over it.  I usually get snow when it really counts....going into an Arctic outbreak.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing that really kills me is it's colder here than a lot of the places getting snow.  Just sucks.

One of these times I'll write up the long winded explanation of why that happens here.

I'm surprised you didn't move further east. For a relatively short distance up the valley from Covington you quickly rise in elevation from 400' to upwards of 800'.

I guess on occasion east winds can limit accumulations near to and points east of Maple Valley, but overall you'd probably see more individual snowfall events, more cumulative seasonal snowfall in general, and more importantly more days spent below freezing, and an easier time staying connected to cold air masses for longer.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, well, well. It appears Mark's 00z GRAF model showing the possible wet snow scenario for PDX especially east side may come to fruition. The 6z NAM 3km looks real good for this potential with marginal temps 32-34 degrees. Simulated Radar/Precip Type from 2-10 AM shows this well. Snow totals through 8 AM look pretty dang good! We shall see!

[Gradient Keeper]

Gresham is down to 37!

[Gradient Keeper]

Why do people choose to be stupid? The lack of common sense astounds me. Pendleton NWS urged people hours ago not to travel.

 

3 S Walla Walla [Walla Walla Co, WA] PUBLIC reports NON-TSTM WND GST of E42 MPH at 1:32 AM PST -- REPORTS OF 7-10 VEHICLES STUCK/STRANDED ON BIRCH CREEK RD/POWERLINE RD. BETWEEN WALLA WALLA AND MILTON FREEWATER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What is blowing snow? I've never experienced it.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

What is blowing snow? I've never experienced it.

  I guess it's this, minus the baking soda

[The Blob]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Gresham is down to 37!

Will it stay there? I know the temps have been bouncing around

[The Blob]

So close to having snow. Looks like work is getting a lot of mix tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Will it stay there? I know the temps have been bouncing around

My guess is it will bounce around for a bit longer, but the gradients are very weak to flat now.

[Geos]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....it was obvious some places were going to score.  My call earlier was Kitsap County, NW King County, Western Snohomish County would all see snow with SW King County on the bubble.  Worked out just that way.

I really wish I had known about this shallow cold air problem here before we bought this place.  We hold onto cold quite well here, but in cases like this I get screwed on snow 90% of the time.

Too bad you're missing out tonight. What is your elevation?

Issue here is that I'm surrounded by water. 

[Geos]

46 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I have a Forester, and 3 years of experience delivering pizza in the Renton/Fairview area, during the 2008 snowpocalypse haha.

That's a good snow vehicle. Yeah I know that area a bit. I worked for Amazon for over two years as a subcontractor and then got sick of the long highway miles. But I know the roads well from Kent to Marysville and out to Monroe. I worked delivering during the 2019 snowpocalypse. Usually it was when it wasn't snowing, but one of the storms came in early and I almost got stranded up near Granite Falls. It took me about three hours to get back to the north side of Kirkland where I was living that day. A day I'll never forget. 

[The Blob]

Still pouring cats and dogs outside

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, The Blob said:

Flood advisory till 0630.

Definitely looks a little wet down there! 

[The Blob]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Definitely looks a little wet down there! 

We have a rain drain at the corner of our room outside and all I hear is water rushing.

[Blizzard777]

Not much to report here except the cul-de-sac making crave a Cinnabon roll!   37* and moderate rain.   Snow slowly being chewed away

[Blizzard777]

5 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We have a rain drain at the corner of our room outside and all I hear is water rushing.

Looks like crazy amounts of water!   Hope my daughters driveway drain in Tigard is keeping up with the rain rate.  

[jakerepp]

Looks like we've gotten an inch but it's just rain right now. Such a heavy, soupy mess on everything.

34.2

[FroYoBro]

Still a lot of erratic temperature changes going on here. Was 46 degrees at midnight. Fell down to 41 by 2am. Just got a few southerly wind gusts and now it’s back up to 44. 

[Geos]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Not much to report here except the cul-de-sac making crave a Cinnabon roll!   37* and moderate rain.   Snow slowly being chewed away

I can totally see the Cinnabon roll pattern there! That actually does sound good right now. lol

Had a good run, 8 days with snow cover. I was going to mention there is definitely some minor to moderate street flooding out there tonight - in the areas I was driving around.

[Cloud]

This isn't news or should be shocking to anyone but I think it's time we all agree that there is a major cold bias with the GFS. Because it ran a bit too cold, not only did it show what it showed for multiple days for multiple runs but it did it until the very end with this marginal event. Granted it worked out for some, but what it was showing was major. The switch never really materialized here and it remained in the mid 30s when this model was showing freezing. Good thing we have other models as a sanity check of some sort because can you imagine what it'd be like if we just rely on the GFS alone?

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This isn't news or should be shocking to anyone but I think it's time we all agree that there is a major cold bias with the GFS. Because it ran a bit too cold, not only did it show what it showed for multiple days for multiple runs but it did it until the very end with this marginal event. Granted it worked out for some, but what it was showing was major. The switch never really materialized here and it remained in the mid 30s when this model was showing freezing. Good thing we have other models as a sanity check of some sort because can you imagine what it'd be like if we just rely on the GFS alone?

I'd say it performed better than NAM or EURO on this one. Sorry you missed out on the fun this time

[Blizzard777]

@TacomaWaWxnot sure if you got your transportation figured out but another option is the bus line.   Perhaps someone already mentioned it as I haven’t gone through all the post.  Anyhow, safe travels 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I'd say it performed better than NAM or EURO on this one. Sorry you missed out on the fun this time

It was always meant to be a 500'+ kinda thing. The Euro also came around to that solution is it not? I don't really have much to comment about the NAM. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d love to extrapolate the end of the 06z GFS 

[smerfylicious]

Only...7 hours late, but now i'm under a winter storm warning lol.

[Geos]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Only...7 hours late, but now i'm under a winter storm warning lol.

How's it looking in Gold Bar? Or are you home yet?

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Geos said:

How's it looking in Gold Bar? Or are you home yet?

I'm currently in Seattle at work. As far as I know it's still snowing hard, still gusting to 40mph as well. Looking at the local FB group I'd say there's 6-8" of new snow with more to come.

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d love to extrapolate the end of the 06z GFS 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a storm, the station at the nearby fire station just gusted to 63mph.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Meatyorologist]

That ridge in the LR on the 06z GFS is quite strong. It has its own thermal trough riding up the coast and the 564 thickness line makes its first appearance in Oregon since early October. Brookings gets some solid downsloping with highs in the low 60s. Decent inversion pattern in the lowlands.

[Tyler Mode]

0.80" since midnight.  Pouring rain still.

[smerfylicious]

Sky Valley Fire with quite the update:

NOTICE: Continuing to snow heavily. In excess of 18 inches in places. Fire units are having a difficult time responding even with chains. Stay home and safe if at all possible. Power outages are likely. Survey homes and assure you address all Fire hazards, portable heaters, candles, heat lamps. Expect longer than normal response from Fire units. BE SAFE !