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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

The Blob

By The Blob
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by MR.SNOWMIZER,

One of the best winter pics I've taken. This is 4 Miles from my cabin. 
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SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

On a personal note, one of my dogs (My avatar pic is of her.), has been missing for about a week and a half. Her disappearance has baffled me, she's 10 years old, she never runs off, and I was unable

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

One of the best winter pics I've taken. This is 4 Miles from my cabin. 

Tibster13
Tibster13

Ok here’s my once a year post! Reporting from White Salmon, WA. Always found the weather forecasting here to be really tough to pin down, as the NWS out of Portland tends to focus on Hood River a

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty pleased with how much the 850s and 925s drop later tonight and tomorrow morning on tonight's GFS run.  Easily cold enough for snow for the Central Puget Sound if it verifies.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That would be great. 

Would sure be nice to still have a little snowcover for when the inversion settles in. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would sure be nice to still have a little snowcover for when the inversion settles in. 

You probably will up there. I don't think ours can withstand 2 1/2 more days of heavy rain. We did have 4" yesterday, but that was sandwiched between about 3" of rain Sunday night to present. 

Once is off the trees I just wish it would melt immediately. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm pretty pleased with how much the 850s and 925s drop later tonight and tomorrow morning on tonight's GFS run.  Easily cold enough for snow for the Central Puget Sound if it verifies.

Yeah just looking at Mesoanalysis RAP 4-6hr forecast trends shows a nice drop in 925/850 temps.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile...

39/31 here today.  11 consecutive max temps below 40 and 11 consecutive freezing min temps.  Still about 2 inches of snow here.

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sooo... Should we be the ones to tell Kovacik, or should it be Cliff?

image.png

Nice to see the GFS not showing much of a warm nose.  Very good news for our area.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Is Cliff seriously saying the ground is warm?  Don't even know how to respond to that.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MV_snow Rising Star

MV_snow

Posted
Posted

Feeling pretty decent for my area tomorrow night although it will be marginal. The very same conservative NWS that only predicted 1-3” the night before Boxing Day (I ended up getting 8”) has us under a WSW getting 2-5”. I will say the snowpack here has had some nice staying power as it’s basically a crusty layer of ice now.

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MV_snow Rising Star

MV_snow

Posted
Posted

I hope we can get a nice inversion pattern out of the ridge coming up… we have not had that yet this year. Unfortunately the ridging may be too weak to prevent warm fronts and drizzle next week from weak systems. I think weak ridging is my least favorite pattern this time of year.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah just looking at Mesoanalysis RAP 4-6hr forecast trends shows a nice drop in 925/850 temps.

The GFS looks like a solid -3 for the Seattle area on 925s.  Very good.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ShawniganLake Grand Master

ShawniganLake

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Eagerly awaiting the arrival of that Fraser Valley outflow, still 35F here with light SW winds. It seems this might be one of those tight snow gradient scenarios, the Arctic air is arriving at just the right time to meet a Pacific storm. Places that end up near the boundary will see huge amounts of snow.  Hope is sitting at 16F now with blasting outflow, this Fraser Valley airmass is plenty cold.

Seems like the low level cold outflow has actually over performed modelling.  Which is pretty rare. Perhaps all that snow cover in the canyon is helping. Over 2 feet in places like Lytton. 

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Brian_in_Leavenworth Veteran

Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

@Brian_in_Leavenworth you are about to get absolutely buried. I was there last week and there was already a ton of snow. I know you have had at least one decent dump since then too. Going to be awesome checking out the webcams on Thursday. Enjoy. 

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed your visit.  We got about 9-10 inches Sunday night, and will get a couple of inches tonight.  Snowing moderately now.

Storm tomorrow night looks amazing.  NWS says 12-18 inches.  UW-WRF 4k ensemble mean is about 17.  Hard to believe it would be that much, but I have found that it is usually the most accurate mesoscale model of all, and consistent with NWS and other models.  

And this was based on 12Z runs.  I think the 0Z runs may be even snowier, so I am anxious to see what the ensemble mean says when it comes out tomorrow morning for the 0Z runs.

And what's nice about this is that this is not a transition event from heavy snow to heavy rain.  It will warm up a bit, but this storm should stay as all snow.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

How can the ground be to warm after like a week long freeze. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

I hope we can get a nice inversion pattern out of the ridge coming up… we have not had that yet this year. Unfortunately the ridging may be too weak to prevent warm fronts and drizzle next week from weak systems. I think weak ridging is my least favorite pattern this time of year.

Yup.  We need to go big or go home with that ridge.  If the inversion works out we have shot at a solid cold January.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How can the ground be to warm after like a week long freeze. 

I think the guy has utterly lost it.  I almost fell on my arse this morning in the Safeway parking lot because the warm pavement was so icy. 🤣

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How can the ground be to warm after like a week long freeze. 

Yeah this morning it only dropped to 32.9 briefly when it snowed a sloppy half inch, then it stopped and the temp went to 34. Didn’t matter, the ground is so cold that it all stuck even on my gravel driveway. 

8C6C78E6-780E-461A-9885-6DE53611CEEB.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That's funny... I was just telling Jim how I didn't feel too confident for our area tomorrow. Most models aren't too optimistic in general and even the ones that are don't look good for our area, besides the GFS. I hope I'm wrong and it somehow works out.

And agreed on the snow staying part - somehow we still have a solid amount even after all the rain and bit of a warm up. It's really held on tough.

I was ready to come on here and say I thought this thing might bust until I saw the pretty sharp drop of mid level temps shown on tonight's GFS run.  That and some impressive CAA entering the picture from the north.  That Fraser outflow looks like it's going to have some teeth.  Outer fringes could make it to Seattle.

As for the snow staying so well...it completed its transition to a granular form last night.  All of that cold rain and then freezing low temps last night.  When it gets to that state it's very slow to melt.  Then of course you have the fact the south wind was never able to get in here.  This area is good at hanging onto cold and snow on the ground once it's here.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like the low level cold outflow has actually over performed modelling.  Which is pretty rare. Perhaps all that snow cover in the canyon is helping. Over 2 feet in places like Lytton. 

Yep it absolutely helps with stronger cold air advection 925 to surface.

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MV_snow Rising Star

MV_snow

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

That's funny... I was just telling Jim how I didn't feel too confident for our area tomorrow. Most models aren't too optimistic in general and even the ones that are don't look good for our area, besides the GFS. I hope I'm wrong and it somehow works out.

And agreed on the snow staying part - somehow we still have a solid amount even after all the rain and bit of a warm up. It's really held on tough.

You could definitely be right and this ends up only a Tim special like Sunday night. I think we have a shot at a few inches given the Fraser outflow seems to be over performing and the GFS still looks good (not that I trust its snow maps in any way, shape, or form).

Assuming the snowpack hangs on until the torch Thursday, we will have had 11 days of solid pack for this area in the dead of winter. That kind of staying power will be the part I remember the most about this event.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Really not too bad of a GFS run overall.  Nice to see we end up high and dry for a while.  Nice cold shot before the ridge sets up over us too.  The worst part of it is the insane rainfall that happens on Thursday.  Going to be murder on the snow pack.  Some places in the EPSL may be able to hold onto the low level cold for a while on Thursday at least.

Longer range still looks hopeful for another GOA block.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

You could definitely be right and this ends up only a Tim special like Sunday night. I think we have a shot at a few inches given the Fraser outflow seems to be over performing and the GFS still looks good (not that I trust its snow maps in any way, shape, or form).

Assuming the snowpack hangs on until the torch Thursday, we will have had 11 days of solid pack for this area in the dead of winter. That kind of staying power will be the part I remember the most about this event.

We have considerably colder mid level temps this time.  This has a shot.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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LowerGarfield Grand Master

LowerGarfield

Posted
Posted

New snow is falling and accumulating on the sidewalk which has been clear for two or three days now. NWS thinks about 2-3 inches in the next two days so we'll see what happens.

  • Snow 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Brian_in_Leavenworth Veteran

Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really not too bad of a GFS run overall.  Nice to see we end up high and dry for a while.  Nice cold shot before the ridge sets up over us too.  The worst part of it is the insane rainfall that happens on Thursday.  Going to be murder on the snow pack.  Some places in the EPSL may be able to hold onto the low level cold for a while on Thursday at least.

Longer range still looks hopeful for another GOA block.

Not murder on the mountain snow pack, if that's what you mean.  Stevens Pass may get 3 feet.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is Cliff seriously saying the ground is warm?  Don't even know how to respond to that.

I've never seen so much black ice ever as I did last night and this morning! The ground is NOT warm! The guy has lost it. Makes me wonder if he is in the area right now. 

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  • Snow 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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