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PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil


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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And this is where it's tricky. Depending on wind and precip rates if we can actually get snow falling then it will probably last longer than forecast says. Normally these events have snow falling longer. 

Yeah I know the HRRR isn't much of a measure here. NAM agrees but if the snow is heavier than predicted (which it definitely has been the past few weeks) then could be a little better. Models have done terribly with precip rates recently

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And this is where it's tricky. Depending on wind and precip rates if we can actually get snow falling then it will probably last longer than forecast says. Normally these events have snow falling longer. 

Agreed. Fairly significant boom and bust potential. If the cold air never quite makes it, the entire Sound may see nothing but 34-35 degree rain even up past Everett, but if it gets here enough to start as snow, we should stay snow till the Southerlies kick in which is often delayed an hour or two later than modeled.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Light rain/snow mix rolling through right now. 36.9

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Agreed. Fairly significant boom and bust potential. If the cold air never quite makes it, the entire Sound may see nothing but 34-35 degree rain even up past Everett, but if it gets here enough to start as snow, we should stay snow till the Southerlies kick in which is often delayed an hour or two later than modeled.

A couple marginal events the past few days have been predicted as snow and they just came as rain. I definitely saw the bust potential the other night when Everett + North got snow but just rain in Seattle.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm going to loose my mind missing out on that storm in Eastern Washington.  I could leave and I have workers here at my business but I have a hard time leaving and not feeling guilty.  To get two storms there in a 96hr period that each dump 8 inches is rare there.

We havent been able to get up to plow in between - so we will likely have 24-30" on our 3 mile long, somewhat steep driveway. Big problem with not being there for these events is that we will probably be walking in from the main road next time we go up. 

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Earlier it was looking strong for pdx, but now it’s shifted south some. 

Still quite a bit of spread on the models. The GFS takes it pretty far south and then the Canadian doesn't even develop a southern low.

12z UKMET looks like it would be the most favorable for a NW OR/SW WA blow. This is a fairly classic alignment, with a deepening low passing close from the WSW. These types of lows can sometimes tap into just enough jet energy to bomb out really quickly.

12zukmet0105.thumb.png.3f916bd8bdbc13987dea0576e306faf2.png

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6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We havent been able to get up to plow in between - so we will likely have 24-30" on our 3 mile long, somewhat steep driveway. Big problem with not being there for these events is that we will probably be walking in from the main road next time we go up. 

No amount of snow can stop my d6. It will push 4 feet of wet snow in spring like nothing. Pretty crazy. The machine weighs 44k. I had to weld some grade 8 bolts to the tracks to act like cleats

20211229_152131.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No amount of snow can stop my d6. It will push 4 feet of wet snow in spring like nothing. Pretty crazy. The machine weighs 44k. I had to weld some grade 8 bolts to the tracks to act like cleats

20211229_152131.jpg

Our tractor isnt the best but it does fine since there are some tight spots/ledges on the road and we have a bunch of other 3pt attachments for it, but we cant keep it at the bottom of the driveway so we still have to go through the snow to get to it. 

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Just now, gusky said:

Snowed for @jakereppat the same temp so this could bring snow to N Seattleimage.png.fbc5f7a97b56d3d4fd3c18142f728b66.png

36.5 IMBY

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Just now, jakerepp said:

36.5 IMBY

Just went up to 37.2 IMFY now, was 36.9. Might be too warm

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

image.png.8ff32b67a1e394e08b7065abd13b27c5.png

In my experience, raccoons love dry cat food!

Just cloudy and 36° here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it.  I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun.

20211229_143826.jpg

Woah, you have a TRX?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it.  I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun.

20211229_143826.jpg

That is my favorite pickup by far. Literally one of my dream cars. Looks so good in the snow!!!

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When we got to our gate it's a 1 mile drive to the top of property to the dozer, I hadn't been there to plow at all so the road had 16 inches on it.  I dropped the air in my tires to 15, locked the rear diff locker and punched it. My ram TRX made it to the top! Parts of the drive are a 14% grade lol. STEEP. This truck has 700hp so it has massive wheels speed to just claw your way up, it was fun.

20211229_143826.jpg

that truck is sexy as hell

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22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Full GEFS FWIW

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1641384000-1641384000-1642766400-10.gif

Uninspiring. Could be worse. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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37 here at home…just some light drizzle for now. I think I’m going to be the next person on the forum with covid…my friend down in texas has it now came down with it the day after a left and I’m feeling sick this morning too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like this echo is strengthening right around me.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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1 hour ago, Esquimalt said:

How is it that the wrf and the gfs show me getting 8-10 inches and the RGEM and euro show me getting 3 lol? I’ve never had a situation where within 12 hours of the event theres been that much variation 

Gfs and it’s WRF love cranking the outflow and overdoing strait enhancement in the outflow. 

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36 and raining here. The North Kitsap School District cancelled classes today. Apparently there are areas of snow and ice around here, but I have no clue where. My accumulated snow is long gone at my house, and we have missed just about every round of excitement here for the last several days. I have a hard time thinking we'll get anything other than rain today, but I guess we'll see. 

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LakesOnline_LakeLevel (1).png

Some great news.... Lake Oroville's water table is about a week away from reaching 100' above its minimum back in early fall.

It bottomed out at 628.47' back on October 1st. As of 9am today, it's all the way back up to 719.72' A recovery of more than 90', about 78% of normal, and around 22' higher than this time last year. What an amazing turnaround for that parched region.

And despite being lower than some of the previous years, the rate at which it is rising is much higher than anything they've seen over the last half decade at this point in the season. Notice how 2020 is much higher at this point now, but the water table barely moves over the rest of the season. What is being shown this year is a region in remission from a terrible drought. Hard to be negative about this outlook.

After a weak storm passes through this Friday, California will enter an extended period of drier, warmer weather (modern Niña climo w/ expanded Hadley cell and constricted N/S gradient.) However unlike the previous couple years, this won't cause any major issues, since the snowpack remains at over 140% of normal (!), the highest since the legendary 2011 season. And even in the lowlands, the rains have been plentiful. During the month of December, San Francisco received 7.84" of rain, and downtown LA a confounding 9.46"! For some context, KSEA accrued itself a handy 4.08".

The only trouble spots remaining are over extreme northern California and southern Oregon, where the extended presence of jet suppression proved to be too much of a good thing, as much of the precipitation was shunted to the south. For instance, Eureka, which sits right at the base of the coast range and benefits greatly from terrain uplift, received 7.25" of precipitation this past month. A respectable amount, but ultimately more than an inch below the December normal, and 0.59" less than San Francisco a few hundred miles closer to the Equator.

Later this January and into the late winter, and eventually further into spring, as the poleward temperature gradient relaxes alongside the jet stream, more rain and snow will return to the Sierra range. On top of that, the significant snowpack currently in place (alongside future snows) will provide a much-needed, and recently much-missed, source of water for its parched ecosystem(s).

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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51 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm going to loose my mind missing out on that storm in Eastern Washington.  I could leave and I have workers here at my business but I have a hard time leaving and not feeling guilty.  To get two storms there in a 96hr period that each dump 8 inches is rare there.

The storm last night way overachieved. The NWS Spokane didn't issue an advisory until 3:45 am.

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