PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I have hundreds of pictures, but shouldn't share them publicly without permission from the owners. I found this one online though. Might help. 

I bet that little guy really loves playing in the snow.

[Jbolin]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@hawkstwelve It's actually looks like southerlies a bit.... Would need to look closer. Weathermodels.com is frustratingly limited. No wind barbs even at 10m view. No 925mb winds either. Honestly a tossup unless someone with a WxBell subscription chimes in with a 925mb wind map at 03z/7pm tonight.

S/SE at 5-9 mph

[Deweydog]

Just now, MossMan said:

Wished I had packed up the family and went to my uncles summer place just up from Orondo on the Columbia River. 

My uncle has a country place no one knows about. He says it used to be farm, before the motor law.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Surface and 925 winds are easterly/ESE at 7PM.

Definitely depicting downslope warming then. When Tim mentioned "warm nose" I assumed he was talking about southerlies.... Generally the term "warm nose" is reserved for an invading warmer airmass advecting into a cooler one. Regardless, not very good for accumulating snow. I have a feeling the Euro will be correct, in terms of snow in the air and maybe a trace to an inch where it does accumulate, save for those lucky Fraser outflow spots.

Unfortunately the low and its associated shield of precip and warm air trended north in the final days leading up to this afternoon. Back on Sun/Mon this looked like a more serious threat for a widespread 1-4". Now it'll just be a "fun to look at" type of event. All I can say is that you can only take what you can get.... So I'll probably go out an enjoy whatever falls out of the sky this evening.... Hoping for some big dendrites

[jakerepp]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any pics of the dogs? Feels like we may need some puppies around here pretty soon.

Here's my niece on her birthday last year

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, jakerepp said:

Here's my niece on her birthday last year

 

Post of the year so far.

[KingstonWX]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wished I had packed up the family and went to my uncles summer place just up from Orondo on the Columbia River. 

I guess the bright side is I don't have to have it plowed until the next booking this weekend. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I reeeeeaaaaally wish I went to my Cabin up Chumstick for this event. Looks like it's going to be absolutely insane between Plain and Leavenworth. 

Once in 25 year storm.  I may not see a forecast like this in Leavenworth for a long time.

This Afternoon

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Once in 25 year storm.  I may not see a forecast like this in Leavenworth for a long time.

This Afternoon

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Are you in actual town, or outside like most? That is insane. 

[GHweatherChris]

Almost 100% snow in Aberdeen, heading towards home, should be snowing good there.  We shall see.

[gusky]

22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I agree with everything.  I've lived this nightmare my entire life, make a change now don't wait till your 50 like me. It just gets harder. If you love winter weather like me this area we live in is a nightmare most of the time. 

But I think it's also what makes snow here so special. It can be annoying missing out on snow, but if we got it all the time, we wouldn't look forward to it so much. It's somewhat agonizing but it makes the times when we DO get snow so much more amazing. I wouldn't have it any other way (OK, maybe I could do with like 1 or 2 more snowstorms per year).

[Chowders]

21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'm just so sick and tired of the rain. I'm tired of having to constantly hope and wish for the best outcome in order to score, when it rarely works out. I'm tired of seeing many other areas in the PNW score large winter storm totals while we have to do handstands, cartwheels, and backflips in order to get an inch. I'm just so beyond tired of this climate.

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

So, yes, I am being a giant weenie. I'll be the first to admit it. Feel free to throw all the weenies at me.

We felt the same 10 years ago and bought property outside of Winthrop, Wa.  Its more expensive than it was 10 years ago but you could possibly find a deal and get some land and put a small cabin on it or just get a camper to leave there  and go enjoy a real winter    My neighbor put up one if these wood yurt kits - locally made in Twisp, WA and built his cabin without spending too much.  If you look further away, where Snowmizer is, I'm guessing its even less $ than the Methow Valley.

https://www.smilingwoodsyurts.com/Kits

[Phishy Wx]

Fun times...

 

000
FXUS66 KOTX 052258
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 PM PST Wed Jan 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Parts of central Washington will experience one of the biggest
snow events in many years tonight into Thursday morning including
the Wenatchee, Leavenworth, and Chelan areas. Motorists with plans
to travel across the Cascade Passes tonight into Thursday should
closely monitor pass conditions before making their trip. Friday
will be quite windy with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph across the
Columbia Basin, Palouse, and West Plains. Quieter weather will
arrive over the weekend and persist into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONE OF THE
BIGGEST SNOW STORMS FOR WENATCHEE AREA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON IN MANY YEARS...

Tonight: A deep and slow moving storm system with a deep fetch of
Pacific moisture will deliver widespread heavy snow to the Inland
Northwest tonight into Thursday. Prolonged deep warm frontal lift
over central Washington combined with southeast upslope flow into
the central Washington Cascades will likely produce one of the
biggest snow events for Wenatchee since 1996. Total accumulations
of a foot or more appear likely for Wenatchee, Chelan, and the
Methow Valley. Leavenworth has the potential for upwards of 20
inches and the Cascade Crest will get 2 to 3 feet of accumulation
by Thursday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
are expected at times tonight and early Thursday morning before
snow rates decrease during the mid to late morning hours and a
potential change from snow to freezing rain (or rain).

It goes without saying that this storm will deliver the heaviest
snow of the season for the east slopes of the central Washington
Cascades, but it will likely be the most significant snow of the
season for other places as well including Moses Lake, Grand
Coulee, Ritzville, and Spokane. Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect for the majority of eastern Washington and north Idaho in
anticipation of heavy accumulations prior to and during the
Thursday morning commute. Warm air spreading over freezing
temperatures at the surface may also produce areas of sleet or
freezing rain Thursday afternoon and evening from Moses Lake to
the Palouse and Spokane area. At this time, ice amounts appear to
be minor compared to the impacts of the heavy snow in the morning.

Thursday night: We will be watching the potential for increasing
south winds and rising temperatures Thursday night into Friday
morning across the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. There is some model uncertainty with the strength of
the surge of warmer southerly winds Thursday night. The morning
runs of the NAM and many HREF members aggressively push warmer
surface temperatures into northeast Washington and north Idaho
overnight leading to a change from wintry precipitation to rain
as far north as Sandpoint and Colville by sunrise Friday. The
operational GFS and ECMWF are slower with the warming. An early
onset of gusty south winds could produce a few hours of blowing
and drifting across the Palouse and West Plains...something to
watch.

Friday: Additional concerns for blowing and drifting will occur
Friday as our deep and slow moving low crosses the Cascades.
Temperatures are expected to surge into the mid 30s and low 40s
across most of the lowlands in north Idaho and the eastern third
of Washington on Friday with breezy winds out of the south in the
morning. However, the Waterville Plateau and benches around
Wenatchee could remain below freezing much of the day Friday until
the cold front surges over the Cascades in the afternoon and
evening. If we don`t get enough warming to firm up the snow over
the Waterville Plateau and wind prone spots around Wenatchee, we
could have a real mess on our hands. High resolution models and
many ensemble members of the ECMWF forecast west winds gusting in
the 35 to 45 mph range. The prospect of a fresh foot of snow with
kind of wind on it could produce terrible drifting including US 2
on the Waterville Plateau and several other rural highways and
county roads. Wind Advisories and possibly highlights for blowing
and drifting snow may be necessary Friday...stay tuned. /GKoch

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gets OK at the end, but the block gets undercut as it builds... 

[TacomaWaWx]

39/36 spread so far today…0.07” of precip so far. If we’re going to get any snowflakes it’ll be in the next few hours. Heavier precip is SW of Olympia for now. Think it’s a good sign that precip is atleast mixed with snow down in some spots in NW OR and out in Aberdeen. Think snowmizer has a good point in that if we start seeing snow here it’ll probably hold on longer than expected. 

[Meatyorologist]

I have no idea how I am going to be able to afford a better home in the future. A little OT but I've noticed the field of meteorology become both increasingly automated and increasingly competitive. Assuming I do get my degree, and land a job, what will the housing market look like in the near future? Some twisted part of me wants the bubble to burst again like it did in 2008, but obviously wishing for a market collapse isn't exactly the most sustainable (or ethical) way to steal a decent home out of the cracks.

As far as I am concerned my entire social and personal life sits here in rainy 'ol Seattle, and there's really not much hope for me (including plenty of others in my generation) to build a stable life far away from home. The though of me buying my own house is laughable, even with our relatively cushy minimum wage. It really, truly stinks watching every property within 500 miles appreciate in value at 10x the rate of my aspired career's average income.

I like our temperate weather and our natural beauty compared to much of the rest of the country. I couldn't sit idle in Austin, or DC, or Cheyenne, or Buffalo, no matter how many supercells or blizzards or squalls I could see out there. Even just moving up to North Bend or the highlands near Port Angeles to #maxout my snow potential in this region would geographically isolate me from the rest of my friends and family and job opportunities more than I've ever been in my life. And that's if I can ever move at all...

[Hawksfan2008]

Hmmmmm 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Are you in actual town, or outside like most? That is insane. 

I am in city limits, short walk to the Chumstick and highway 2 intersection.

[Everleigh]

23 minutes ago, weatherweenie said:

I totally get it.

Beat me to it, with this gif! Hahaha

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

But I think it's also what makes snow here so special. It can be annoying missing out on snow, but if we got it all the time, we wouldn't look forward to it so much. It's somewhat agonizing but it makes the times when we DO get snow so much more amazing. I wouldn't have it any other way (OK, maybe I could do with like 1 or 2 more snowstorms per year).

There are still snow fans coming out of Seneca, and severe weather fans growing up in Norman. I feel like weather enthusiasts are simply hard wired to look up at the sky.

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have no idea how I am going to be able to afford a better home in the future. A little OT but I've noticed the field of meteorology become both increasingly automated and increasingly competitive. Assuming I do get my degree, and land a job, what will the housing market look like in the near future? Some twisted part of me wants the bubble to burst again like it did in 2008, but obviously wishing for a market collapse isn't exactly the most sustainable (or ethical) way to steal a decent home out of the cracks.

As far as I am concerned my entire social and personal life sits here in rainy 'ol Seattle, and there's really not much hope for me (including plenty of others in my generation) to build a stable life far away from home. The though of me buying my own house is laughable, even with our relatively cushy minimum wage. It really, truly stinks watching every property within 500 miles appreciate in value at 10x the rate of my aspired career's average income.

I like our temperate weather and our natural beauty compared to much of the rest of the country. I couldn't sit idle in Austin, or DC, or Cheyenne, or Buffalo, no matter how many supercells or blizzards or squalls I could see out there. Even just moving up to North Bend or the highlands near Port Angeles to #maxout my snow potential in this region would geographically isolate me from the rest of my friends and family and job opportunities more than I've ever been in my life. And that's if I can ever move at all...

I hear ya there, although its more that I just anticipate the market collapsing right after I buy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not exactly sure... but it happens fairly frequently in the foothills.   I know Andrew has mentioned it happening in his area in the past when his area warms up and Salem is still cold.    Easterlies aren't going to help much tonight given its 28 degrees at Snoqualmie Pass.

A couple quick warm nose examples. 

February 2014 - We mixed out a full 24 hours before Salem.

December 2016 - During the 12/14 event we had a warm nose while nearby Silverton and Salem were receiving snow we were getting sleet, still had 2 1/2" of snow as it did transition, but we got about half of what most other areas on the valley floor in Marion county got. 

January 2017 (2X) On the 7th we mixed out about 6 hours before Salem. During the big PDX event a few days later we stayed mostly rain in the warm nose along the foothills, did not transition back to snow until 2am the next morning. 

There are other examples, but typically it happens during overrunning events when its an outflow situation or when southerly's are breaking through/advecting north. It typically does not occur with cold onshore flow or once a low passes by to the south. 

I believe it occurs because the southerlies break through, hit the cascades and run north. So basically the warm air hits the Cascades, pools on the west slopes and starts backfilling towards the west out over the valley. Kind of the opposite of the "Forest Grove effect" where cool offshore flow backs against the coast range. 

A typical warm nose down here during a gorge outflow event will run north along the foothills to Estacada and sometimes as far north as Sandy. Sometimes if there is cold enough air aloft the warm nose is shallower and is very noticeable running up through Molalla/Beavercreek/Damascus. 

[jakerepp]

The view of US 2 from the Big Windy cam is completely blocked by snow piling up on....something.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not the most savvy guy financially, but buying in 2011 was a good stroke of luck. I really feel for people looking for that first home now. I don't know how anyone making under 125-150K a year could buy anything decent, especially if you have kids already and perhaps some student loan or other debt. It's just to bad. There are still parts of the country, even now, where you can buy a starter home right after college, or someone who is on the low end of middle class can still aspire to home ownership. Probably the wrong thread, but there are a lot of political factors which make housing on the West Coast more expensive, beyond basic supply and demand... Or that create chronic supply shortages. The amazing thing about buying a home in 2011 was not only the market incredibly affordable, there was an incredible amount of inventory... PS... Continued foreclosure moratoriums are also contributing to supply issues. 

[Tyler Mode]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A couple quick warm nose examples. 

February 2014 - We mixed out a full 24 hours before Salem.

December 2016 - During the 12/14 event we had a warm nose while nearby Silverton and Salem were receiving snow we were getting sleet, still had 2 1/2" of snow as it did transition, but we got about half of what most other areas on the valley floor in Marion county got. 

January 2017 (2X) On the 7th we mixed out about 6 hours before Salem. During the big PDX event a few days later we stayed mostly rain in the warm nose along the foothills, did not transition back to snow until 2am the next morning. 

There are other examples, but typically it happens during overrunning events when its an outflow situation or when southerly's are breaking through/advecting north. It typically does not occur with cold onshore flow or once a low passes by to the south. 

I believe it occurs because the southerlies break through, hit the cascades and run north. So basically the warm air hits the Cascades, pools on the west slopes and starts backfilling towards the west out over the valley. Kind of the opposite of the "Forest Grove effect" where cool offshore flow backs against the coast range. 

A typical warm nose down here during a gorge outflow event will run north along the foothills to Estacada and sometimes as far north as Sandy. Sometimes if there is cold enough air aloft the warm nose is shallower and is very noticeable running up through Molalla/Beavercreek/Damascus. 

I think part of it is westerly flow hitting the Cascades and riding north.  And in the Willamette Valley, the cold gorge outflow hits the coast range and heads south down the west side of the valley.  Often times Sandy at 1,000' will mix out before areas like Forest Grove, Hillsboro etc.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not the most savvy guy financially, but buying in 2011 was a good stroke of luck. I really feel for people looking for that first home now. I don't know how anyone making under 125-150K a year could buy anything decent, especially if you have kids already and perhaps some student loan or other debt. It's just to bad. There are still parts of the country, even now, where you can buy a starter home right after college, or someone who is on the low end of middle class can still aspire to home ownership. Probably the wrong thread, but there are a lot of political factors which make housing on the West Coast more expensive, beyond basic supply and demand... Or that create chronic supply shortages. The amazing thing about buying a home in 2011 was not only the market incredibly affordable, there was an incredible amount of inventory... PS... Continued foreclosure moratoriums are also contributing to supply issues. 

I’m looking at buying my first home in the next month or two. I’ll only be looking at townhomes and condos cause there is no way I can afford a real house in the Seattle metro area

[Phishy Wx]

More on Leavenworth storm, from the Inland Northwest Wx Blog

 

http://inlandnorthwestweather.blogspot.com/2022/01/wenatchee-leavenworth-to-get-buried-in.html

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

20 minutes ago, gusky said:

But I think it's also what makes snow here so special. It can be annoying missing out on snow, but if we got it all the time, we wouldn't look forward to it so much. It's somewhat agonizing but it makes the times when we DO get snow so much more amazing. I wouldn't have it any other way (OK, maybe I could do with like 1 or 2 more snowstorms per year).

This is also true but when I'm at my cabin in Eastern Washington I still stay up all night watching.  Still special and never gets old 

[Hawksfan2008]

With 925s at -2 and 850s at -6 you’d think king county North will be snow once the heavier precip moves in. It will take some very heavy rates for accumulation though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m looking at buying my first home in the next month or two. I’ll only be looking at townhomes and condos cause there is no way I can afford a real house in the Seattle metro area

I left Oregon for college in 2006 when the market was booming. When I moved back in 2010, I was pretty ignorant about how much the market had fallen and had no thought of trying to buy a house. My wife  at the time, started suggesting we look to buy, so we started looking around and I realized the market had dropped 50% in just a couple of years. If I had it to do over again I would maybe have tried to get something a little higher end, I give my property an A+. Would love to have some more land, but at this point in my life I don't know how much time I would have to maintain 10-20 acres, so 3 is perfect, plus the elevation, access to a decent road. The house is more like a C+/B-, it's 1600 sq ft, which is big enough, we finally remodeled both bathrooms, updated the windows, and are getting new carpet this month. But it was built in 1974, has a pretty boring design (Has been mistaken for a manufactured home in pictures.), and always needs something, which is par for the course with a home approaching 50 years old. But anyways, bought for about 180K in 2011, redfin has it now just under 600K. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just got home, had to take a detour.  Temp down to 33, 100% snow falling, but light.  The 925 temps are warming as well.

[OysterPrintout]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I realize how the above makes me sound considering I'm coming out of a period with 13+ inches and snow cover for a week+ but I'm just done with it all. Ready for a big change.

 

 

hit the weenie button so hard I broke my mouse

[GHweatherChris]

This cam is about 6-7 miles SW of me, plow is ready to go lol!!

[jakeinthevalley]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A couple quick warm nose examples. 

February 2014 - We mixed out a full 24 hours before Salem.

December 2016 - During the 12/14 event we had a warm nose while nearby Silverton and Salem were receiving snow we were getting sleet, still had 2 1/2" of snow as it did transition, but we got about half of what most other areas on the valley floor in Marion county got. 

January 2017 (2X) On the 7th we mixed out about 6 hours before Salem. During the big PDX event a few days later we stayed mostly rain in the warm nose along the foothills, did not transition back to snow until 2am the next morning. 

There are other examples, but typically it happens during overrunning events when its an outflow situation or when southerly's are breaking through/advecting north. It typically does not occur with cold onshore flow or once a low passes by to the south. 

I believe it occurs because the southerlies break through, hit the cascades and run north. So basically the warm air hits the Cascades, pools on the west slopes and starts backfilling towards the west out over the valley. Kind of the opposite of the "Forest Grove effect" where cool offshore flow backs against the coast range. 

A typical warm nose down here during a gorge outflow event will run north along the foothills to Estacada and sometimes as far north as Sandy. Sometimes if there is cold enough air aloft the warm nose is shallower and is very noticeable running up through Molalla/Beavercreek/Damascus. 

Excellent description, especially the reverse Forest Grove effect.

I have always explained it the same way. Seen it many times growing up in Stayton.

[GHweatherChris]

I am somewhere under that circled blue!!

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

Hey Kayla!  What did your total precipitation end up being for 2021?  I wound up at 14.50" which isnt terrible, but not that great either. lol

I ended up with 15.75” here which is well below average. I’m not sure how accurate my winter time precip accumulations are though as my precip heater doesn’t seem to be able to handle the extreme cold well. Either way, my driest year since moving here 4 years ago.

[GHweatherChris]

Getting heavier, some slushy accumulation on my truck.  NWS point forecast again dead wrong, only mentioned rain/snow and temp steady at 36, wrong.

[Hawksfan2008]

Not much change. However, it did take increase outflow and drop dew points a bit. 

[gusky]

So I made a "blog" (I hate calling it that) about western WA weather, mostly for fun and because it makes me think about and learn more about the weather. Don't really expect anyone to read it, but if you guys wanted to give it a read and give me feedback it would be greatly appreciated. Or I can delete this post if mods don't like self advertising lol
Western Washington Weather: Some More Snow Tonight, Followed by Warm and Wet Conditions (waweather.blogspot.com) 

[gusky]

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Based on what Kayla, Brian, Snowmizer, etc. have said in the past on this, it sounds like if you are a weather enthusiast it still remains awesome no matter how much you normally get in a winter. Doesn't really lose it's magic, at least not completely.

That's also true. I still can't think of a better feeling than watching it snow at my house.