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2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread


Thunder98

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Just say the darn words already...

CUTOFF LOW!!!

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Minimal changes to the forecast through early next week. Part 1 of this two part storm has moved through and part 2 is poised to move onshore tonight. In the interim just some drizzle or light showers expected. Tonight, warmer air will be advected into the state from the south as some ridging develops over Arizona. This will nudge the plume of moisture a bit to the north, resulting in decreasing showers across the southern portion of the forecast area. This means that SLO and Santa Barbara Counties will be the primary beneficiaries of this next phase of the storm. And with favorable southwest flow in the lower levels to generate ample upslope enhancement, there`s a high chance that the coastal hills and mountains will receive an additional 2-4 inches of rain through Saturday night and about half that for the lower elevations. Convective activity is not expected, however rain rates could still reach close to a half inch per hour in the heavier showers. During this period when the moisture plume is focused on the Central Coast, LA and eastern Ventura Counties will remain mostly cloudy but with only spotty and light shower activity. More widespread shower activity will return to LA/Ventura Counties Sunday as the cold front pushed the plume southeast. However, only a few hours of showers are expected and for the most part amounts should be under a quarter inch. The upper low responsible for all the inclement weather will still be lingering over northern California Monday, but southern California will receive a break from the precip at least for a day or so. Highs will be 3-6 degrees below normal under partly cloudy skies and mostly light winds. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/208 PM. Increasing EPS solutions are now favoring increasing rain chances across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low that has been the trigger for all the current rain activity finally moves through southern California. PW`s are quite low with this system but it is much cooler with a little instability so it wouldn`t take much to generate some shower activity across the area as the low moves through. Almost all the EPS solutions show rain amounts with this system under a quarter inch so impacts will be minimal. Could see some light snow down to around 4500` but not more than an inch or two of accumulation. At this time Thu/Fri look dry. A few EPS solutions show some light precip next Friday as the next trough arrives along the West Coast, though most keep the precip farther north. There is a high probability of cooler than normal temperatures continuing through next week.

 

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