Jan 5th-7th Snowfall Potential (2 Separate Systems) - GL's Lake Effect Machine

[Tom]

Boy, if there was any better pattern to fire up the GL's Lake Effect snow machine it is the one showing up for the middle part of this week.  The 1st northern stream system will travers the Upper MW and lay down a rather widespread "refresher" up north and on the heels of this storm system is a wave ejecting out into the Plains/S MW states.  First, the storm up north is shaping up to deliver one hellova pattern for the LES belt region of SW MI.  The models are showing an ideal set up for countless hours of LES that will pile up big time.

0z Euro...

 

@Clinton and KC peeps look like they are in a good spot with this one... LNK/OMA folks may also be in the game. depending on how this evolves...

 

0z CMC...

 

 

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...starting to fill in a bit better this run down in the S MW...gets its action together across the OHV...Lower MI LES belts are gonna be on fire...

 

[Tom]

06z RGEM...

[Clinton]

KC area peeps are going to be very gun shy of the models, can't blame us for that.  But these smaller snowfall events do verify more often than the ones showing KC getting a foot of snow.  Lets see if we can break the ice and land a few inches of snow as we are within the 120 hr mark.

6z GFS was dry this morning as it lacked moisture, 6z ICON is in the same camp as the Euro and not as over juiced as the CMC.

[Madtown]

We need some white gold...trails need some snow after an absolutely crazy weekend. More sleds than I can remember. 5 or 6 inches would tune them right up again. Hope this works out, but in a year have already learned the models know very little when it comes to LES.

[FAR_Weather]

Oh boy, can't wait for this lake effect.

[Niko]

Looks interesting....mid week period.

[Niko]

Hopefully in the coming days, this can shift a little north.

 

[Niko]

NOAA For short term Mid-week Period: Attention for the work week turns to the strong Pacific upper level
jet (160+ knots) which comes ashore tomorrow, and reaches into the
Midwest Tuesday (albeit in weakened form) but then arches northeast
into the Central Great lakes Tuesday night. This leads to continued
good cyclogensis, with low pressure progged to lower to near 990 MB
over the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. With good surge of
cold/modified Arctic air during the daytime hours, westerly wind
gusts of 40+ mph appear likely. With cyclonic flow and favorable 850
MB temps in the negative mid teens, it also appears likely Lake
Michigan activity will sweep into southeast Michigan during the
afternoon with light accumulations. Scattered snow shower activity
should continue into the evening and overnight hours, with potential
for localized/narrow heavier bands developing.

 

Also, NOAA's thinking on this potential major Winterstorm for later in the week:

Next round of upper level Pacific energy/strong 500 MB height falls
dives southeast through the Rockies and into the central/southern
Mississippi River Valley by Thursday. With the Gulf of Mexico
moisture coming into play, a major winter storm remains possible,
but it continues to look like southeast Michigan will be on the
outer Fringe for the end of the work week, as the low quickly jumps
to the east side of the Appalachians. However, there still is a
substantial number of Euro ensembles suggesting a more direct
impact.

 

 

[Stacsh]

Got a good chance of accumulating snow Wednesday into Thursday.   This type of setup tends to dump for a few hours in my backyard.   I’ve seen sw winds (arctic air) create 4-6” out of nowhere.  

[Clinton]

Here's todays 12z Euro and CMC for both systems. The 18z GFS is beginning to find the second storm.

[FAR_Weather]

I'll be in the Cities for this clipper.

Quote

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Broad southerly flow will continue
Tuesday. A short wave passing to our north will send a weak cold
front south into central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Tuesday. It
won`t have much of a sensible effect on the weather, but it will
tighten the baroclinicity as low pressure develops over South Dakota.
This low will head east along the baroclinic zone and deepen while
it begins to tap a little better moisture. Snow will develop to the
north and west of the system Tuesday, then spread east across much of
the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Favorable thermal
profiles with a deep DGZ, a saturated column, and cyclonic flow will
generate widespread light snow. Snow ratios, while high, may be
tempered a bit by increasing northwest winds as cold air advection
arrives behind the low. Nonetheless, accumulations of a few inches
appear possible across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin,
with amounts tapering to less than a half inch along the Iowa
border. Gusts in the 25-35 kt range may also produce some blowing
snow Wednesday as low level lapse rates steepen and cold air
advection increases. Went with the NBM 90th percentile for gusts, but
these may still be too low looking at forecast soundings.

 

[Clinton]

0z GFS is weaker than the other models with the southern storm.

 

[Clinton]

0z CMC a little less juiced up north and across the lake region than the GFS.  More robust and strengthens the second storm as it moves across the plains into the Ohio Valley.

[someweatherdude]

Thank God the GFS doesn't have KC getting any snow out of this next system.  That would be the death knell of our chances. 

[james1976]

Donut hole city imby

[Bellona]

10 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Donut hole city imby

We've been getting the shaft lately my friend! It'll turn around I hope.

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

0z Euro/EPS...INDY appears to be inline to get their first sig snow of the season...man, this system really gets cranking up the OHV.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

EAX  morning AFD

Focus shifts on the potential for minor accumulations of snowfall
for Wednesday night into Thursday morning associated with an
increase in mid-level frontogenetic forcing in the wake of a strong
cold front. There remains considerable model variability with respect
to the specifics of snowfall coverage/amounts for our area, but most
suggest an event under two inches of accumulation. Confidence is
much higher with respect to the bitterly cold temperatures returning
Wednesday night into Friday morning as surface high pressure settles
into the region. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to
single digits below zero both nights. A much warmer day will return
by Saturday as upper ridging builds into the region, with highs
returning to above normal levels.

 

[james1976]

7 hours ago, Bellona said:

We've been getting the shaft lately my friend! It'll turn around I hope.

Did you get anything from this recent system?

[Niko]

NOAA:

The next tropopause fold and dynamic jet inflection point is then
set to progressively push into the Midwest Thursday. For the most
part, model data has remained status quo with tracking the heart of
strong winter storm system to the south and east of Southeast
Michigan. However, there has been some movement in the solution
space for sensible weather here with the latest deterministic ECMWF
now clipping the area with a little more liquid equivalent. A better
share of the EPS members (some 20%) shows a snow accumulation
reaching/exceeding a couple of inches of snow for Thursday. Cluster
analysis suggests most of the variability is tied up in the
speed/timing of the deep trough/jet inflection. With that stated, it
is difficult to envision a scenario where the strong low/winter
storm is able to veer more northward and hit the area directly. The
reason is the upper level jet inflection/trough remains too
progressive and does not turn to neutral/negative tilt until its
east of Michigan. However, the variability does continue to exist
and with the NBM 75th percentile at 4 inches the potential
definitely still exists for widespread snow accumulations from this
system Thursday night. 

[Tom]

06z RGEM...much better organized...it handled the last system pretty well 2 days out.

[Stacsh]

Calling for 4-8” here.  Perfect setup for GR.  

[centralweather44]

Hardly being talked about here in SE Nebraska. Mentioning small precipitation chances but I also think they are a bit gun shy after this past weekend. Hoping we can get some measurable precip here. Interested to see how the new model runs handle this. 

[FV-Mike]

LOT seems interested in watching this. 

Thursday bears watching and could turn into a problem in or near
our CWA. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM with support from their
respective ensembles all quickly break down/open up the cut off
mid-upper level low off the British Columbia coast with the
remnant channelized vorticity maximum forecast to ride the fast
northwest flow across the Rockies and emerge out onto the high
Plains Wednesday night. Guidance diverges significantly at this
point, with the GFS and most of its ensemble members slow to
deepen the associated trough to the lee of the Rockies, while the
ECMWF is more aggressive. It is common both for models to struggle
with these narrow, channelized vort maxes this far out, and also
not uncommon for guidance to trend stronger and more amplified.
The ECMWF and GEM deepen this wave to the lee of the Rockies much
more quickly than the GFS and at this point, a solution leaning
toward the ECMWF/GEM combo is reasonable

If later runs do come in more amplified,
as they often do with these type of waves, a northward trend in
the track of the wave could result in a snow threat farther north
into our CWA.

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

12z models still mixed on southern storm.  GFS, ICON, and UKMET have the system weakening and falling apart, while the otheers strengthen the storm as it moves into the Ohio Valley.

12z GFS

 

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, centralweather44 said:

Hardly being talked about here in SE Nebraska. Mentioning small precipitation chances but I also think they are a bit gun shy after this past weekend. Hoping we can get some measurable precip here. Interested to see how the new model runs handle this. 

OAX probably cautious after the New Years mishap. And models don't exactly agree with each other on this one either. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro is weaker this run. 10:1 map Wx Bell is currently down

[snowstorm83]

WxBell and Pivotal both acting funky right now, but Euro is further south. Only 0.08" QPF in Lincoln. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said:

WxBell and Pivotal both acting funky right now, but Euro is further south. Only 0.08" QPF in Lincoln. 

Storm on the east coast so the world is ending lol!

[someweatherdude]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro is weaker this run. 10:1 map Wx Bell is currently down

At this range, the GFS had KC getting 11 inches of snow with the last storm.  We got a heavy dusting.  So until further notice, I'm throwing the GFS out.  Not saying CMC is correct (although I'd love for it to be). 

Then again . . . it would make sense for the universe to have the GFS incorrectly forecast 11 inches of snow for KC with the last storm and then correctly forecast 0 inches for this storm.  

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, someweatherdude said:

At this range, the GFS had KC getting 11 inches of snow with the last storm.  We got a heavy dusting.  So until further notice, I'm throwing the GFS out.  Not saying CMC is correct (although I'd love for it to be). 

Then again . . . it would make sense for the universe to have the GFS incorrectly forecast 11 inches of snow for KC with the last storm and then correctly forecast 0 inches for this storm.  

I'm keeping expectations low but the NAM did do good with the last storm. But ya this will be the time the GFS gets it right probably. 

[Clinton]

18z NAM holds the southern storm together and shows no end to the LES.

[Jayhawker85]

26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z NAM holds the southern storm together and shows no end to the LES.

Now that we got the NAM on board what can go wrong LOL! Let’s hope the NAM stays the course this time. It was right with the last storm as well as the EURO

[Niko]

NOAA:

As good as models agree on Wednesdays system, they don`t handle
Thursday well at all. There are two main camps, one being the
trailing trough axis from the exiting low slowly drops through lower
MI helping to focus lake effect activity along an enhanced
convergence axis. This band of snow would drop from Mid MI down
through the area throughout the day bringing a few hours of snow for
each location.  The second camp has a strong system working through
the TN Valley with the northern periphery (snow) advecting north
into southern MI. The ECMWF was all in on the second scenario, but
has drifting south in the 12Z run for what its worth. Thing the
first scenario is more likely at this point and have added a low POP
to the forecast as a starting point. Could see a combo where
elevated moisture from the southern system advects north into the
trough axis helping to enhance mid level saturation and would
essentially enhance snowfall. Still much to be resolved with
Thursday`s forecast.

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

OAX probably cautious after the New Years mishap. And models don't exactly agree with each other on this one either. 

Actually do see some better agreement this afternoon....that LNK is looking at another dusting-2" event 

[tStacsh]

Here we go!  been waiting for this set up.  Artic air wrapping behind a surface low with heavy LES and NEAR blizzard conditions.

 

[Clinton]

KC office mentioning accumulating snow.

[Clinton]

Really good AFD from my office.

With cold air firmly in place, the stage is set for our next round
of wintry weather. Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a clipper
system to move southeast over the region. Models suggest the ridge
over the West may be a bit stronger, pushing our storm system more
northward into southern Alberta. This stronger ridging to our west
may also allow the shortwave to dig further south as it moves over
the Plains Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A deeper diving low
would lead to a stronger system overall. Similar to yesterday,
models that show a stronger mid-level shortwave trough, create more
snow and take that snow further east. This is the case for the NAM,
ECMWF and the Canadian. The GFS is fairly similar to its 12Z run
from yesterday, depicting a weaker mid-level wave and weakening the
snow as it moves further east. Given the agreement of the NAM,
ECMWF, and Canadian, confidence is increasing in light snow moving
through the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings show temperatures entirely below freezing. With cloud ice
present, precipitation type will be all snow. But forecast soundings
do show a substantial dry layer that will have to saturate before
snow begins. This will likely occur late Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours. Snow ratios also look slightly drier/higher than
normal given the cold air in place. Factoring that all in, looks
like snow amounts up to 2 inches will occur across the area, with
some locally higher amounts likely. The main area of uncertainty is
if and where any narrower band of snow may develop and the potential
for a narrow band of higher accumulations. Given decent
frontogenetic forcing, this looks like a real possibility. The NAM
depicts a progressive frontogenetic band, most notable at 700mb,
from southeast NE through northeast KS and through the forecast area
north of the Missouri River. The Canadian shows this band further
south and the ECMWF is just too coarse to depict that fine of a
feature. This possible mesoscale feature will be handled better
when the event gets into the time frame of higher resolution
models.

[Clinton]

18z RDPS.  This looks like a real nice system for @CentralNebWeatherhope your doin ok.

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Hello everyone. Took some time off as I’ve been battling Covid for the last few weeks. Now I’m dealing with Post Covid pneumonia. Went to the doctor and I think I’m on the road to recovery. Probably the worst sickness I’ve ever had. I read the comments from many of you about my absence and I really appreciated them. Weather was just not my top priority the last month. Forecast say potential for 6” on Wednesday. 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Hello everyone. Took some time off as I’ve been battling Covid for the last few weeks. Now I’m dealing with Post Covid pneumonia. Went to the doctor and I think I’m on the road to recovery. Probably the worst sickness I’ve ever had. I read the comments from many of you about my absence and I really appreciated them. Weather was just not my top priority the last month. Forecast say potential for 6” on Wednesday. 

Glad your on the road to recovery.  This clipper seems to have eyes for your location, the 0z NAM gives ya a good snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks Clinton. How much snow did you get on January 1st?  

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Thanks Clinton. How much snow did you get on January 1st?  

Got about a 1/2 inch of snow and sleet mix.  It's amazing how storms have found a way to miss my area over the last few years.

[centralweather44]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Would love for this to come to fruition. Id take 4.0” in Lincoln.  Not banking it it though. 

[Andie]

We’ve got fish falling from the sky in Texarkana.  
Yeah, …Just saying’. It’s going to be a weird year. 
 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/residents-of-east-texas-town-report-fish-falling-from-sky/2850714/

[jcwxguy]