Tom Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Boy, if there was any better pattern to fire up the GL's Lake Effect snow machine it is the one showing up for the middle part of this week. The 1st northern stream system will travers the Upper MW and lay down a rather widespread "refresher" up north and on the heels of this storm system is a wave ejecting out into the Plains/S MW states. First, the storm up north is shaping up to deliver one hellova pattern for the LES belt region of SW MI. The models are showing an ideal set up for countless hours of LES that will pile up big time. 0z Euro... @Clinton and KC peeps look like they are in a good spot with this one... LNK/OMA folks may also be in the game. depending on how this evolves... 0z CMC... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z EPS...starting to fill in a bit better this run down in the S MW...gets its action together across the OHV...Lower MI LES belts are gonna be on fire... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 06z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 KC area peeps are going to be very gun shy of the models, can't blame us for that. But these smaller snowfall events do verify more often than the ones showing KC getting a foot of snow. Lets see if we can break the ice and land a few inches of snow as we are within the 120 hr mark. 6z GFS was dry this morning as it lacked moisture, 6z ICON is in the same camp as the Euro and not as over juiced as the CMC. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 We need some white gold...trails need some snow after an absolutely crazy weekend. More sleds than I can remember. 5 or 6 inches would tune them right up again. Hope this works out, but in a year have already learned the models know very little when it comes to LES. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Oh boy, can't wait for this lake effect. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks interesting....mid week period. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hopefully in the coming days, this can shift a little north. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 NOAA For short term Mid-week Period: Attention for the work week turns to the strong Pacific upper level jet (160+ knots) which comes ashore tomorrow, and reaches into the Midwest Tuesday (albeit in weakened form) but then arches northeast into the Central Great lakes Tuesday night. This leads to continued good cyclogensis, with low pressure progged to lower to near 990 MB over the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. With good surge of cold/modified Arctic air during the daytime hours, westerly wind gusts of 40+ mph appear likely. With cyclonic flow and favorable 850 MB temps in the negative mid teens, it also appears likely Lake Michigan activity will sweep into southeast Michigan during the afternoon with light accumulations. Scattered snow shower activity should continue into the evening and overnight hours, with potential for localized/narrow heavier bands developing. Also, NOAA's thinking on this potential major Winterstorm for later in the week: Next round of upper level Pacific energy/strong 500 MB height falls dives southeast through the Rockies and into the central/southern Mississippi River Valley by Thursday. With the Gulf of Mexico moisture coming into play, a major winter storm remains possible, but it continues to look like southeast Michigan will be on the outer Fringe for the end of the work week, as the low quickly jumps to the east side of the Appalachians. However, there still is a substantial number of Euro ensembles suggesting a more direct impact. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Got a good chance of accumulating snow Wednesday into Thursday. This type of setup tends to dump for a few hours in my backyard. I’ve seen sw winds (arctic air) create 4-6” out of nowhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here's todays 12z Euro and CMC for both systems. The 18z GFS is beginning to find the second storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'll be in the Cities for this clipper. Quote TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Broad southerly flow will continue Tuesday. A short wave passing to our north will send a weak cold front south into central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Tuesday. It won`t have much of a sensible effect on the weather, but it will tighten the baroclinicity as low pressure develops over South Dakota. This low will head east along the baroclinic zone and deepen while it begins to tap a little better moisture. Snow will develop to the north and west of the system Tuesday, then spread east across much of the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Favorable thermal profiles with a deep DGZ, a saturated column, and cyclonic flow will generate widespread light snow. Snow ratios, while high, may be tempered a bit by increasing northwest winds as cold air advection arrives behind the low. Nonetheless, accumulations of a few inches appear possible across central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, with amounts tapering to less than a half inch along the Iowa border. Gusts in the 25-35 kt range may also produce some blowing snow Wednesday as low level lapse rates steepen and cold air advection increases. Went with the NBM 90th percentile for gusts, but these may still be too low looking at forecast soundings. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 0z GFS is weaker than the other models with the southern storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 0z CMC a little less juiced up north and across the lake region than the GFS. More robust and strengthens the second storm as it moves across the plains into the Ohio Valley. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Donut hole city imby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, james1976 said: Donut hole city imby We've been getting the shaft lately my friend! It'll turn around I hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 0z Euro/EPS...INDY appears to be inline to get their first sig snow of the season...man, this system really gets cranking up the OHV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 EAX morning AFD Focus shifts on the potential for minor accumulations of snowfall for Wednesday night into Thursday morning associated with an increase in mid-level frontogenetic forcing in the wake of a strong cold front. There remains considerable model variability with respect to the specifics of snowfall coverage/amounts for our area, but most suggest an event under two inches of accumulation. Confidence is much higher with respect to the bitterly cold temperatures returning Wednesday night into Friday morning as surface high pressure settles into the region. Overnight lows will be in the single digits to single digits below zero both nights. A much warmer day will return by Saturday as upper ridging builds into the region, with highs returning to above normal levels. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 hours ago, Bellona said: We've been getting the shaft lately my friend! It'll turn around I hope. Did you get anything from this recent system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 NOAA: The next tropopause fold and dynamic jet inflection point is then set to progressively push into the Midwest Thursday. For the most part, model data has remained status quo with tracking the heart of strong winter storm system to the south and east of Southeast Michigan. However, there has been some movement in the solution space for sensible weather here with the latest deterministic ECMWF now clipping the area with a little more liquid equivalent. A better share of the EPS members (some 20%) shows a snow accumulation reaching/exceeding a couple of inches of snow for Thursday. Cluster analysis suggests most of the variability is tied up in the speed/timing of the deep trough/jet inflection. With that stated, it is difficult to envision a scenario where the strong low/winter storm is able to veer more northward and hit the area directly. The reason is the upper level jet inflection/trough remains too progressive and does not turn to neutral/negative tilt until its east of Michigan. However, the variability does continue to exist and with the NBM 75th percentile at 4 inches the potential definitely still exists for widespread snow accumulations from this system Thursday night. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 06z RGEM...much better organized...it handled the last system pretty well 2 days out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Calling for 4-8” here. Perfect setup for GR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Hardly being talked about here in SE Nebraska. Mentioning small precipitation chances but I also think they are a bit gun shy after this past weekend. Hoping we can get some measurable precip here. Interested to see how the new model runs handle this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 LOT seems interested in watching this. Thursday bears watching and could turn into a problem in or near our CWA. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM with support from their respective ensembles all quickly break down/open up the cut off mid-upper level low off the British Columbia coast with the remnant channelized vorticity maximum forecast to ride the fast northwest flow across the Rockies and emerge out onto the high Plains Wednesday night. Guidance diverges significantly at this point, with the GFS and most of its ensemble members slow to deepen the associated trough to the lee of the Rockies, while the ECMWF is more aggressive. It is common both for models to struggle with these narrow, channelized vort maxes this far out, and also not uncommon for guidance to trend stronger and more amplified. The ECMWF and GEM deepen this wave to the lee of the Rockies much more quickly than the GFS and at this point, a solution leaning toward the ECMWF/GEM combo is reasonable If later runs do come in more amplified, as they often do with these type of waves, a northward trend in the track of the wave could result in a snow threat farther north into our CWA. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 12z models still mixed on southern storm. GFS, ICON, and UKMET have the system weakening and falling apart, while the otheers strengthen the storm as it moves into the Ohio Valley. 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, centralweather44 said: Hardly being talked about here in SE Nebraska. Mentioning small precipitation chances but I also think they are a bit gun shy after this past weekend. Hoping we can get some measurable precip here. Interested to see how the new model runs handle this. OAX probably cautious after the New Years mishap. And models don't exactly agree with each other on this one either. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 12z Euro is weaker this run. 10:1 map Wx Bell is currently down 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 WxBell and Pivotal both acting funky right now, but Euro is further south. Only 0.08" QPF in Lincoln. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, snowstorm83 said: WxBell and Pivotal both acting funky right now, but Euro is further south. Only 0.08" QPF in Lincoln. Storm on the east coast so the world is ending lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, someweatherdude said: At this range, the GFS had KC getting 11 inches of snow with the last storm. We got a heavy dusting. So until further notice, I'm throwing the GFS out. Not saying CMC is correct (although I'd love for it to be). Then again . . . it would make sense for the universe to have the GFS incorrectly forecast 11 inches of snow for KC with the last storm and then correctly forecast 0 inches for this storm. I'm keeping expectations low but the NAM did do good with the last storm. But ya this will be the time the GFS gets it right probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z NAM holds the southern storm together and shows no end to the LES. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z NAM holds the southern storm together and shows no end to the LES. Now that we got the NAM on board what can go wrong LOL! Let’s hope the NAM stays the course this time. It was right with the last storm as well as the EURO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 NOAA: As good as models agree on Wednesdays system, they don`t handle Thursday well at all. There are two main camps, one being the trailing trough axis from the exiting low slowly drops through lower MI helping to focus lake effect activity along an enhanced convergence axis. This band of snow would drop from Mid MI down through the area throughout the day bringing a few hours of snow for each location. The second camp has a strong system working through the TN Valley with the northern periphery (snow) advecting north into southern MI. The ECMWF was all in on the second scenario, but has drifting south in the 12Z run for what its worth. Thing the first scenario is more likely at this point and have added a low POP to the forecast as a starting point. Could see a combo where elevated moisture from the southern system advects north into the trough axis helping to enhance mid level saturation and would essentially enhance snowfall. Still much to be resolved with Thursday`s forecast. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: OAX probably cautious after the New Years mishap. And models don't exactly agree with each other on this one either. Actually do see some better agreement this afternoon....that LNK is looking at another dusting-2" event Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Here we go! been waiting for this set up. Artic air wrapping behind a surface low with heavy LES and NEAR blizzard conditions. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 KC office mentioning accumulating snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Really good AFD from my office. With cold air firmly in place, the stage is set for our next round of wintry weather. Northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a clipper system to move southeast over the region. Models suggest the ridge over the West may be a bit stronger, pushing our storm system more northward into southern Alberta. This stronger ridging to our west may also allow the shortwave to dig further south as it moves over the Plains Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A deeper diving low would lead to a stronger system overall. Similar to yesterday, models that show a stronger mid-level shortwave trough, create more snow and take that snow further east. This is the case for the NAM, ECMWF and the Canadian. The GFS is fairly similar to its 12Z run from yesterday, depicting a weaker mid-level wave and weakening the snow as it moves further east. Given the agreement of the NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian, confidence is increasing in light snow moving through the area Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Forecast soundings show temperatures entirely below freezing. With cloud ice present, precipitation type will be all snow. But forecast soundings do show a substantial dry layer that will have to saturate before snow begins. This will likely occur late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Snow ratios also look slightly drier/higher than normal given the cold air in place. Factoring that all in, looks like snow amounts up to 2 inches will occur across the area, with some locally higher amounts likely. The main area of uncertainty is if and where any narrower band of snow may develop and the potential for a narrow band of higher accumulations. Given decent frontogenetic forcing, this looks like a real possibility. The NAM depicts a progressive frontogenetic band, most notable at 700mb, from southeast NE through northeast KS and through the forecast area north of the Missouri River. The Canadian shows this band further south and the ECMWF is just too coarse to depict that fine of a feature. This possible mesoscale feature will be handled better when the event gets into the time frame of higher resolution models. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z RDPS. This looks like a real nice system for @CentralNebWeatherhope your doin ok. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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