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Jan 5th-7th Snowfall Potential (2 Separate Systems) - GL's Lake Effect Machine


Tom

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Agreed.  But if Miami County, KS gets 6 inches, and I get 1 inch or less, I'm going to lose it.  I mean, it would be difficult to be in a worse spot in the entire Midwest for barely missing snow.  

I'm in the same boat, on that run I would get 1.5 while Henry, County would get over 6.  I miss the days when we had better than a 50 mile wide band of snow.

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The I-70 corridor from Topeka to KC has been a dead zone for years. I never take any model seriously that places this area in the axis of heaviest snow which they rarely do anyway. It always a question of will we get missed to the north or missed to the south. You'd think dumb luck would give us a major snowstorm now and then but it never happens. As I've noted before, the last Topeka snowfall greater than 6" was nearly 8 years ago, Feb 4, 2014. I need a new hobby..lol

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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4 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The I-70 corridor from Topeka to KC has been a dead zone for years. I never take any model seriously that places this area in the axis of heaviest snow which they rarely do anyway. It always a question of will we get missed to the north or missed to the south. You'd think dumb luck would give us a major snowstorm now and then but it never happens. As I've noted before, the last Topeka snowfall greater than 6" was nearly 8 years ago, Feb 4, 2014. I need a new hobby..lol

Chief Tonganoxie needs to reverse the curse.

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While not the way I had envisioned this system to set up,  Blitz Warnings have been issued again for the Upper MW...I did think this storm would have a chance to track a little farther south but the blocking disappeared just as the storm approached.  Bad luck!  Good luck to those up north who are in for a treat.

Screen Shot 2022-01-05 at 1.07.06 AM.png

 

Man, the LES machine looks fantastic for SW MI...1st legit set up in prob a few years, right?

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

06z HRRR a bit more optimistic for KC... @Clinton, is that lil bullseye in MO where you live?

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I'm right on the western edge of that bullseye but I would gladly take what it's getting me.  The NAM would work for me and KC peeps as well.  I also noticed the NAM seems to enhance the LES for Stacsh and delivers @Timmy_Supercella good snow. 

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Man this little storm moving through northern MI today really has the lake effect kicked into high gear, been a while since I remember seeing something like this. Some areas of the UP could be looking at 2 feet of new snow. Areas in the lower could get over a foot also. The cold air should start getting the ice on many inland lakes safe enough for fishing also by this weekend hopefully. Winter looks to finally be making a appearance in most of MI other then the extreme south east part.

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With a slightly more southerly track of the low and maybe a bit slower as well the start of the potential heaver snow fall and winds have been pushed back. The winds here have just picked up and at this time I am getting a snow/rain mix with a temperature of 32. The temperature fell to 30 then went up to as high as 35 overnight. We will see how this plays out thru the day.

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Looks like I could be getting some good snow bands from lake Huron tomorrow. All depends on the set-up. We will see how that goes.

NOAA:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional chances for lake effect snow will exist Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. Increasing confidence for lake effect snowshowers
to impact somewhere between I94 to I96 with accumulations where
accumulations around an inch or more will be possible. A second
chance for snow showers will develop Thursday evening into Friday
morning along the Lake Huron shoreline, where an inch or more of
accumulation will be possible. 
Again too soon to narrow down if and when banding will form and
snowfall intensity, but lake-air delta-Ts are certainly supportive
of an accumulating snowfall event if lake effect banding remains
onshore.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

@Stacsh dream LES set up may be coming into fruition....lolipop 30" totals showing up on the over amped HRRR...the signal is there for some whicked streamers coming off the lake.

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Not sure how accurate these totals will be.  But someone is going to get slammed.  Coming down here good.  I’m on day 5 of Covid.  Fully vaxxed.  So I had a fever for about 18 hours Friday night/sat and I’m about 80 percent today.   Woke up at 10.  It was 30 degrees.   Dropped to 25.9 in the last hour.   Moderate snow.   18 mph gust so far.   I’m right on the edge of the heaviest.  I could see 6” if the bands stay out this far.  Further west a few miles might get closer to a foot.  So it goes with les snow.   I’m happy though!
going to start really ripping soon.  But you can see to my west they are getting pounded.  6E7308FD-70E4-406A-BBA7-517B061BC95E.thumb.jpeg.151ff758622342b039f872bb71762b75.jpeg 

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At this time getting moderate to at times heavy snow falling here. Looking out at the driveway it don't look to have much snow on it at this time. At the airport they had a report of heavy snow at their last report. They reported west winds of 22 MPH with gust up to 30. At this time the criteria here dose not meet that of blizzard conditions. The current temperature here is 26 that last report out of GRR was 24. 

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Still getting moderate to heavy snow fall here. The snow flake size is rather good it is not as windy as it was. In the yard I have between 6" and a trace of snow depending on location. The temperature here is now at 25.  That is between 10 and 15° warmer than on the other side of the lake.

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is about 1 county too far south for my comfort level. If this can just take a sneeze up north i will feel a tad better:)

  I can tell you, most models gave me 1-6" being on the edge.  I'll exceed that.  Won't get a good measurment though.     I believe WestMJim isn't far from my location.  It's definitely pound town in areas this side of Lake Michigan.   

image.png.9778b37f956189ccc717d1893b6c0915.png

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is about 1 county too far south for my comfort level. If this can just take a sneeze up north i will feel a tad better:)

Me too, with such a narrow band of snow we'll just have to watch the radar and see how it lines up.

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I will say with the Lake Effect, I am probably 3 miles north of currently the heaviest snow which is aligned right over the city of Grand Rapids.  Easily 1" plus rates right now here, I imagine it's close to 2 in GR.   Hope the band lasts a few more hours.  

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11 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I will say with the Lake Effect, I am probably 3 miles north of currently the heaviest snow which is aligned right over the city of Grand Rapids.  Easily 1" plus rates right now here, I imagine it's close to 2 in GR.   Hope the band lasts a few more hours. 

I just took some measurements and here I have between 4 and 11" and there is heavy snow falling at this time. 

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6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I just took some measurements and here I have between 4 and 11" and there is heavy snow falling at this time. 

Seems about right lookin outside.  Dealing with Covid last 5 days I haven't got my snowblower running yet.   Gonna be a pain to shovel if I don't get it started.  I'll worry about it tomorrow.  Wife ordered groceries last night in preparation, schools were closed.  Not going anywhere anytime soon.  Lucky I can work from home this week.  

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I spent the actual snow part of this event in Eagan, MN. I measured 1.5" there.

But BOY, the drive home was rather insane. The roads were mostly fine in the Cities, but once I got out onto more rural parts of I-94 near Monticello, the road turned into straight-up ice. I saw multiple spin-outs and it didn't get better at all until St. Cloud. Between Sauk Centre and about Fergus Falls I actually managed to go normal speed on cruise control, but after Fergus, that's when the ground blizzard conditions hit. Visibility was nothing all the way from Fergus Falls back into Fargo, where the road turned icy again. 3.2" fell in Fargo.

Currently -11*F, wind chill -37*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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39 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I spent the actual snow part of this event in Eagan, MN. I measured 1.5" there.

But BOY, the drive home was rather insane. The roads were mostly fine in the Cities, but once I got out onto more rural parts of I-94 near Monticello, the road turned into straight-up ice. I saw multiple spin-outs and it didn't get better at all until St. Cloud. Between Sauk Centre and about Fergus Falls I actually managed to go normal speed on cruise control, but after Fergus, that's when the ground blizzard conditions hit. Visibility was nothing all the way from Fergus Falls back into Fargo, where the road turned icy again. 3.2" fell in Fargo.

Currently -11*F, wind chill -37*F.

I'll be in Fargo Friday and Saturday! Should be quite the winter wonderland. 

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