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Jan 5th-7th Snowfall Potential (2 Separate Systems) - GL's Lake Effect Machine


Tom

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32 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

What’s your snow depth??

13" is the average now. Some areas are well over 2' and there are a couple patches where you can see blades of grass. Up until today it was pretty evenly dispersed.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I'll be in Fargo Friday and Saturday! Should be quite the winter wonderland. 

Awesome! You'll actually be here for an above average day temp-wise on Saturday, looks like we'll make the mid-20s.

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I'm still in a Winter Weather Advisory but the counties just south of me are in the Warning.

270373241_268465238716379_2924179965356401456_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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All day yesterday looked and felt like those good Ol' Fashioned Polar Vortex days of seasons past.  Intermittent snow showers along with a hazy looking sky at times.  You could just tell the airmass above us was straight from the Arctic Tundra.  ORD officially tallied measurable snow of (0.1")...this brings the season total to 6.1" (-3.0" to date).  Coincidentally, yesterday's daily snowfall record of 8.7" came during the infamous Jan '14 PV intrusion.

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50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Light snow falling this morning but only about a 1/2 inch on the ground.  Heavier accumulations are about 20 miles to my south.

Can't win, can we? NOT A SINGLE FLAKE HERE IN KC. We had a dew point of 2, I thought that might be a problem.

 

The disturbance was there, just went south. The GFS for the win. It showed a south path the last 8 runs. The NAM and EURO were wrong on this one. 

The last time this disturbance came through per the LRC was NOV. 1st.(1st cycle) I received .32 inches of rain, first snowflakes of the season mixed in. This time, nothing. The first 35 days of cycle one was very wet in my area, 7.5 inches of moisture. The first 30 days of cycle 2, VERY DRY! I know we have a ways to go in cycle two,(another 30 days) but, the second half of cycle one was the start of a 45 day dry spell) That part of the pattern is returning....YIKES

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24 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Can't win, can we? NOT A SINGLE FLAKE HERE IN KC. We had a dew point of 2, I thought that might be a problem.

 

The disturbance was there, just went south. The GFS for the win. It showed a south path the last 8 runs. The NAM and EURO were wrong on this one. 

The last time this disturbance came through per the LRC was NOV. 1st.(1st cycle) I received .32 inches of rain, first snowflakes of the season mixed in. This time, nothing. The first 35 days of cycle one was very wet in my area, 7.5 inches of moisture. The first 30 days of cycle 2, VERY DRY! I know we have a ways to go in cycle two,(another 30 days) but, the second half of cycle one was the start of a 45 day dry spell) That part of the pattern is returning....YIKES

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

All day yesterday looked and felt like those good Ol' Fashioned Polar Vortex days of seasons past.  Intermittent snow showers along with a hazy looking sky at times.  You could just tell the airmass above us was straight from the Arctic Tundra.  ORD officially tallied measurable snow of (0.1")...this brings the season total to 6.1" (-3.0" to date).  Coincidentally, yesterday's daily snowfall record of 8.7" came during the infamous Jan '14 PV intrusion.

Had the same thing going over here. Definitely from the Arctic!

Currently -6 with a -27 wind chill

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The snow is now down to just a few flurries. Here at my house I took several measurements and came up with a average new snow fall total of around 9.5" there is between 6 and 14" of snow on the ground here (there are some areas with around 3" where the snow blew off the most) The low here fell to 17 but is now back up to 23.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

Lawrence had about a quarter of a inch of snow this morning. 
 

i was hoping that the NAM and Euro would of been right but the GFS won the game

 

Maybe we can score some snow in about 10 days when a negative tilt front swings thru before the official dry part of the pattern starts. I think we had our last precip on November 10th or 11th last time 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

Snows were never that localized where I moved from.

That's pretty crazy!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hopefully, today I can catch a nice band and have it situated on top of my area for a bit. NOAA thinks that a possible banding could form between i-69 and i-94, or even further south than that.

QUOTE:

Through the late
afternoon and evening, banding off of Lake Michigan will be possible
given the better convergence and boost in saturation depths. Latest
model guidance supports the possible banding location along or south
of I69 later this afternoon, with a southward sag through the
evening, nearing the I94 corridor. Low-level stability does increase
through the evening hours, so if banding does set up over SE MI,
integrity of the banding will wane through the late evening. A highly
localized inch or more will be possible with this feature. END QUOTE
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

OMG!!! NOW THAT IS JUST PLAIN BRUTAL! 

I'll let you gather your thoughts for the rest of the day....LOL

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Do you know where to look to find KC's latest 1-inch snowfall?  I know KCI got more than an inch over the holidays.  So officially, we have our inch.  But IMBY, we have yet to get an inch.  I've googled it, but can't find it.  

No I've tried to find it also with no luck.  Is the lowest seasonal snowfall total 3.7 inches?

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11 minutes ago, westMJim said:

yep, from time to time is sure has. I just did the driveway and there is a good 12+ inches in the back yard.

Just had to drive down to Michigan St to take my wife to get tested.  Absolutely carnage.  Steady heavy snow.  Roads are completely covered.  The hills leading into Downtown GR are causing slide offs and people struggling to get up the hills.  Love it!. 

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9 minutes ago, westMJim said:

yep, from time to time is sure has. I just did the driveway and there is a good 12+ inches in the back yard.

I bet it’s really coming down out your way because it’s been snowing all the way over here in northern St Clair county most of the day from lake Mi effect snow even, just a light dusting but big fluffy flakes. Enjoy your guys snow, it’s about darn time you guys got a decent lake effect event.

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Remember the post I made yesterday about the hellish drive I had back to Fargo from St. Paul yesterday? Well, here is a video from the worst part of my drive. I think this was shortly after I drove through there, as I do recognize some of the cars shown in the video.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Remember the post I made yesterday about the hellish drive I had back to Fargo from St. Paul yesterday? Well, here is a video from the worst part of my drive. I think this was shortly after I drove through there, as I do recognize some of the cars shown in the video.

 

great video of bad winter driving. It's not always snow falling in progress- but blowing snow that causes an ice crust on roadways from friction of tires. another thing that gets overlooked is true "black ice" --- frozen exhaust on the roadways (heavily traveled) --- only happen when temps are -15F or lower. it's scary stuff and can throw you in the ditch on a severe clear / cold day quicker than you think. Only a few on here know what I mean- true black ice is the scariest thing I've seen in severe winter weather. ( going down 694 in Twin Cities-- -25F Jan 94'= clear skies, no snow, only to do a 720 into the guardrail doing 65 mph )

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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22 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

great video of bad winter driving. It's not always snow falling in progress- but blowing snow that causes an ice crust on roadways from friction of tires. another thing that gets overlooked is true "black ice" --- frozen exhaust on the roadways (heavily traveled) --- only happen when temps are -15F or lower. it's scary stuff and can throw you in the ditch on a severe clear / cold day quicker than you think. Only a few on here know what I mean- true black ice is the scariest thing I've seen in severe winter weather. ( going down 694 in Twin Cities-- -25F Jan 94'= clear skies, no snow, only to do a 720 into the guardrail doing 65 mph )

Yup, a lot of the roads in Fargo currently have black ice as a result of exhaust, especially around intersections.

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Some lolipop totals showing up in the U.P/N Wisco and into SW MI where it continues to snow...

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 1.22.08 AM.png

 

Eau Claire, MI holds the top of the list so far in SW MI...that lake plume really delivered yesterday...

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 1.21.50 AM.png

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2022&month=1&day=6&hour=16&minute=25

 

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Some lolipop totals showing up in the U.P/N Wisco and into SW MI where it continues to snow...

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 1.22.08 AM.png

 

Eau Claire, MI holds the top of the list so far in SW MI...that lake plume really delivered yesterday...

Screen Shot 2022-01-07 at 1.21.50 AM.png

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2022&month=1&day=6&hour=16&minute=25

 

We should continue to do well here in SWMI in this pattern.  Up and down with many cold frontal passages.  No big storms.  But that's usually not what delivers the goods here.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 1/6/2022 at 3:17 PM, FAR_Weather said:

Remember the post I made yesterday about the hellish drive I had back to Fargo from St. Paul yesterday? Well, here is a video from the worst part of my drive. I think this was shortly after I drove through there, as I do recognize some of the cars shown in the video.

 

Good vid but it's exaggerated a bit since they kept looping around that same stretch so you see that one semi for instance at various stages of being fetched out of the ditch. It reminded me very much of the highway mayhem I and my family experienced Nov 27th driving Interstates 96 and 69 during that unexpectedly cold (28F) and intense first widespread clipper storm of the season. As mentioned before, there was even a car way off in a ditch apparently hit hard by a full-sized pick up truck (also in same ditch) that was engulfed in flames 5 feet high coming from the engine compartment. Flames-n-snow. Something you don't see every day around these parts.. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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