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Jan 5th-7th Snowfall Potential (2 Separate Systems) - GL's Lake Effect Machine


Tom
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3 hours ago, Tom said:

06z HRRR a bit more optimistic for KC... @Clinton, is that lil bullseye in MO where you live?

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I'm right on the western edge of that bullseye but I would gladly take what it's getting me.  The NAM would work for me and KC peeps as well.  I also noticed the NAM seems to enhance the LES for Stacsh and delivers @Timmy_Supercella good snow. 

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Man this little storm moving through northern MI today really has the lake effect kicked into high gear, been a while since I remember seeing something like this. Some areas of the UP could be looking at 2 feet of new snow. Areas in the lower could get over a foot also. The cold air should start getting the ice on many inland lakes safe enough for fishing also by this weekend hopefully. Winter looks to finally be making a appearance in most of MI other then the extreme south east part.

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With a slightly more southerly track of the low and maybe a bit slower as well the start of the potential heaver snow fall and winds have been pushed back. The winds here have just picked up and at this time I am getting a snow/rain mix with a temperature of 32. The temperature fell to 30 then went up to as high as 35 overnight. We will see how this plays out thru the day.

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Looks like I could be getting some good snow bands from lake Huron tomorrow. All depends on the set-up. We will see how that goes.

NOAA:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional chances for lake effect snow will exist Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. Increasing confidence for lake effect snowshowers
to impact somewhere between I94 to I96 with accumulations where
accumulations around an inch or more will be possible. A second
chance for snow showers will develop Thursday evening into Friday
morning along the Lake Huron shoreline, where an inch or more of
accumulation will be possible. 
Again too soon to narrow down if and when banding will form and
snowfall intensity, but lake-air delta-Ts are certainly supportive
of an accumulating snowfall event if lake effect banding remains
onshore.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

@Stacsh dream LES set up may be coming into fruition....lolipop 30" totals showing up on the over amped HRRR...the signal is there for some whicked streamers coming off the lake.

image.png

Not sure how accurate these totals will be.  But someone is going to get slammed.  Coming down here good.  I’m on day 5 of Covid.  Fully vaxxed.  So I had a fever for about 18 hours Friday night/sat and I’m about 80 percent today.   Woke up at 10.  It was 30 degrees.   Dropped to 25.9 in the last hour.   Moderate snow.   18 mph gust so far.   I’m right on the edge of the heaviest.  I could see 6” if the bands stay out this far.  Further west a few miles might get closer to a foot.  So it goes with les snow.   I’m happy though!
going to start really ripping soon.  But you can see to my west they are getting pounded.  6E7308FD-70E4-406A-BBA7-517B061BC95E.thumb.jpeg.151ff758622342b039f872bb71762b75.jpeg 

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At this time getting moderate to at times heavy snow falling here. Looking out at the driveway it don't look to have much snow on it at this time. At the airport they had a report of heavy snow at their last report. They reported west winds of 22 MPH with gust up to 30. At this time the criteria here dose not meet that of blizzard conditions. The current temperature here is 26 that last report out of GRR was 24. 

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Still getting moderate to heavy snow fall here. The snow flake size is rather good it is not as windy as it was. In the yard I have between 6" and a trace of snow depending on location. The temperature here is now at 25.  That is between 10 and 15° warmer than on the other side of the lake.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z HRRR puts down 4 in mby, I would love to be on the east side of Lake Michigan right now.  The RAP is further south.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_c.png

This is about 1 county too far south for my comfort level. If this can just take a sneeze up north i will feel a tad better:)

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is about 1 county too far south for my comfort level. If this can just take a sneeze up north i will feel a tad better:)

  I can tell you, most models gave me 1-6" being on the edge.  I'll exceed that.  Won't get a good measurment though.     I believe WestMJim isn't far from my location.  It's definitely pound town in areas this side of Lake Michigan.   

image.png.9778b37f956189ccc717d1893b6c0915.png

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3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is about 1 county too far south for my comfort level. If this can just take a sneeze up north i will feel a tad better:)

Me too, with such a narrow band of snow we'll just have to watch the radar and see how it lines up.

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I will say with the Lake Effect, I am probably 3 miles north of currently the heaviest snow which is aligned right over the city of Grand Rapids.  Easily 1" plus rates right now here, I imagine it's close to 2 in GR.   Hope the band lasts a few more hours.  

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11 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I will say with the Lake Effect, I am probably 3 miles north of currently the heaviest snow which is aligned right over the city of Grand Rapids.  Easily 1" plus rates right now here, I imagine it's close to 2 in GR.   Hope the band lasts a few more hours. 

I just took some measurements and here I have between 4 and 11" and there is heavy snow falling at this time. 

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6 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I just took some measurements and here I have between 4 and 11" and there is heavy snow falling at this time. 

Seems about right lookin outside.  Dealing with Covid last 5 days I haven't got my snowblower running yet.   Gonna be a pain to shovel if I don't get it started.  I'll worry about it tomorrow.  Wife ordered groceries last night in preparation, schools were closed.  Not going anywhere anytime soon.  Lucky I can work from home this week.  

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Snow picking up again.   6.5" best I could measure.  another 1 or 2 overnight possible, maybe more if I get a nice band that's supposed to be enhanced later tonight.  Wife shoveled the driveway.  What a trooper!

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Grand Rapids has received 7.2" of snow today.  A new record for the day.  Still snowing moderately at the airport.  This storm has amazingly put us above average snowfall to date at 32.7".  

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I spent the actual snow part of this event in Eagan, MN. I measured 1.5" there.

But BOY, the drive home was rather insane. The roads were mostly fine in the Cities, but once I got out onto more rural parts of I-94 near Monticello, the road turned into straight-up ice. I saw multiple spin-outs and it didn't get better at all until St. Cloud. Between Sauk Centre and about Fergus Falls I actually managed to go normal speed on cruise control, but after Fergus, that's when the ground blizzard conditions hit. Visibility was nothing all the way from Fergus Falls back into Fargo, where the road turned icy again. 3.2" fell in Fargo.

Currently -11*F, wind chill -37*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Btw, I'm now 9.7" over the average for this time of year. Pretty sure I was pushed over last year's total a while ago too.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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39 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I spent the actual snow part of this event in Eagan, MN. I measured 1.5" there.

But BOY, the drive home was rather insane. The roads were mostly fine in the Cities, but once I got out onto more rural parts of I-94 near Monticello, the road turned into straight-up ice. I saw multiple spin-outs and it didn't get better at all until St. Cloud. Between Sauk Centre and about Fergus Falls I actually managed to go normal speed on cruise control, but after Fergus, that's when the ground blizzard conditions hit. Visibility was nothing all the way from Fergus Falls back into Fargo, where the road turned icy again. 3.2" fell in Fargo.

Currently -11*F, wind chill -37*F.

I'll be in Fargo Friday and Saturday! Should be quite the winter wonderland. 

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32 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

What’s your snow depth??

13" is the average now. Some areas are well over 2' and there are a couple patches where you can see blades of grass. Up until today it was pretty evenly dispersed.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I'll be in Fargo Friday and Saturday! Should be quite the winter wonderland. 

Awesome! You'll actually be here for an above average day temp-wise on Saturday, looks like we'll make the mid-20s.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I'm still in a Winter Weather Advisory but the counties just south of me are in the Warning.

270373241_268465238716379_2924179965356401456_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Light snow has started here. Hope we can get a few inches of white gold.

Good luck bud!  Hopefully you can score some snow during this cold snap and enjoy it for a few days.

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All day yesterday looked and felt like those good Ol' Fashioned Polar Vortex days of seasons past.  Intermittent snow showers along with a hazy looking sky at times.  You could just tell the airmass above us was straight from the Arctic Tundra.  ORD officially tallied measurable snow of (0.1")...this brings the season total to 6.1" (-3.0" to date).  Coincidentally, yesterday's daily snowfall record of 8.7" came during the infamous Jan '14 PV intrusion.

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50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Light snow falling this morning but only about a 1/2 inch on the ground.  Heavier accumulations are about 20 miles to my south.

Can't win, can we? NOT A SINGLE FLAKE HERE IN KC. We had a dew point of 2, I thought that might be a problem.

 

The disturbance was there, just went south. The GFS for the win. It showed a south path the last 8 runs. The NAM and EURO were wrong on this one. 

The last time this disturbance came through per the LRC was NOV. 1st.(1st cycle) I received .32 inches of rain, first snowflakes of the season mixed in. This time, nothing. The first 35 days of cycle one was very wet in my area, 7.5 inches of moisture. The first 30 days of cycle 2, VERY DRY! I know we have a ways to go in cycle two,(another 30 days) but, the second half of cycle one was the start of a 45 day dry spell) That part of the pattern is returning....YIKES

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24 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Can't win, can we? NOT A SINGLE FLAKE HERE IN KC. We had a dew point of 2, I thought that might be a problem.

 

The disturbance was there, just went south. The GFS for the win. It showed a south path the last 8 runs. The NAM and EURO were wrong on this one. 

The last time this disturbance came through per the LRC was NOV. 1st.(1st cycle) I received .32 inches of rain, first snowflakes of the season mixed in. This time, nothing. The first 35 days of cycle one was very wet in my area, 7.5 inches of moisture. The first 30 days of cycle 2, VERY DRY! I know we have a ways to go in cycle two,(another 30 days) but, the second half of cycle one was the start of a 45 day dry spell) That part of the pattern is returning....YIKES

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

All day yesterday looked and felt like those good Ol' Fashioned Polar Vortex days of seasons past.  Intermittent snow showers along with a hazy looking sky at times.  You could just tell the airmass above us was straight from the Arctic Tundra.  ORD officially tallied measurable snow of (0.1")...this brings the season total to 6.1" (-3.0" to date).  Coincidentally, yesterday's daily snowfall record of 8.7" came during the infamous Jan '14 PV intrusion.

Had the same thing going over here. Definitely from the Arctic!

Currently -6 with a -27 wind chill

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The snow is now down to just a few flurries. Here at my house I took several measurements and came up with a average new snow fall total of around 9.5" there is between 6 and 14" of snow on the ground here (there are some areas with around 3" where the snow blew off the most) The low here fell to 17 but is now back up to 23.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

Lawrence had about a quarter of a inch of snow this morning. 
 

i was hoping that the NAM and Euro would of been right but the GFS won the game

 

Maybe we can score some snow in about 10 days when a negative tilt front swings thru before the official dry part of the pattern starts. I think we had our last precip on November 10th or 11th last time 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

Snows were never that localized where I moved from.

That's pretty crazy!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hopefully, today I can catch a nice band and have it situated on top of my area for a bit. NOAA thinks that a possible banding could form between i-69 and i-94, or even further south than that.

QUOTE:

Through the late
afternoon and evening, banding off of Lake Michigan will be possible
given the better convergence and boost in saturation depths. Latest
model guidance supports the possible banding location along or south
of I69 later this afternoon, with a southward sag through the
evening, nearing the I94 corridor. Low-level stability does increase
through the evening hours, so if banding does set up over SE MI,
integrity of the banding will wane through the late evening. A highly
localized inch or more will be possible with this feature. END QUOTE
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

OMG!!! NOW THAT IS JUST PLAIN BRUTAL! 

I'll let you gather your thoughts for the rest of the day....LOL

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

To give you an idea of how frustrating close the snow was to my house, my kids go to school about 4 miles to my south and they are out of school today.  5 miles to my south 3 inches of snow has fallen.

Do you know where to look to find KC's latest 1-inch snowfall?  I know KCI got more than an inch over the holidays.  So officially, we have our inch.  But IMBY, we have yet to get an inch.  I've googled it, but can't find it.  

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