2022 Weather. Gonna be rockin’.

[Phil]

New year, new thread. Let’s do this.

Flying home tomorrow. Unless I’m delayed, I should be back just in time for the snow event.

Looks like a general 2-4” east of the BR, maybe 4-6” west. I don’t trust Miller-Bs but guidance has been consistent on this one.

Have a chance to crack double digits in seasonal snowfall following the 6.5” of wet cement that fell on the 3rd. Apparently it took some tree limbs down, will have some cleanup to do upon my return.

[Phil]

Unloading snow here. 1-2”/hr rates. Should continue for another hour or two.

Wind also beginning to increase a tad, but still awaiting the stronger CAA.

[Phil]

Got roughly 2.5-3” last night. Areas with pre-existing snowcover accumulated a bit more. Snow sticks to snow very well.

Windy this morning. Had a brief period of blowing snow that reduced visibility, but things have really calmed down now.

Hoping for another big snow third week of the month. It is beautiful outside right now.

[Mr Marine Layer]

No more sunshine and palm trees.

[Thunder98]

Lol, this thread is dead as a door nail!
 

The title of this thread should be renamed to The Phil Thread.

[Mr Marine Layer]

The California one can be renamed to the Mr Marine Layer thread

[Phil]

Man it’s raw out there today. Mid/upper 30s and rain on top of snowcover. Cold front arrives tonight with 30-40mph gusts and a rapid temp drop.

Could stay below freezing for a couple of days with lows in the lower teens. Should kill off the last of the insects and spiders.

[Phil]

Wind is roaring tonight. Walls creaking. Sounds like winter.

[Phil]

A bit nippy up at Canaan Valley tonight.

[Mr Marine Layer]

We need some East Coast weather nerds here.

[Phil]

@iFred pin this thread? Thx bro

[Phil]

Winter storm watch for Sunday afternoon/overnight. Complex storm with high bust potential in either direction.

Thump of heavy snow on the front end looks like a safe bet. However inland track + screaming easterly LLJ should flip us to ice/mix and then rain. Question is, how long does it take/how much precip falls before sfc temps hit freezing?

Dewpoints likely to be in the single digits or teens upon start of precip, so there’s room for some low level wet bulb cooling. But WAA will be going strong and will offset that. So sfc temps probably briefly tank at start of precip before warming quickly after sunset.

Historically, the cold wedge tends to overperform most guidance, but with such a prolific LLJ, I’m not sure that’ll be true this time in areas east of the fall line.

Also concerned about wind. Only a fraction of the LLJ will mix down due to the presence of a stable layer, but gusts between 40-50mph (from an atypical direction) in conjunction with snow and ice accretion on trees could be problematic. In October, easterly gusts of only 35-40mph caused significant problems here. My hunch is wind will be the x-factor that will lead to more problems than currently advertised by LWX, unless the cold wedge holds stronger than current advertised by guidance.

[Phil]

Light snow has been falling here for ~ 45mins now. Sticking to everything with temperatures falling back into the low 20s.

Heavier snow moving in from the south. Should be here in approximately 30mins. 

[Phil]

Picked up roughly 2-2.5” of fluffy snow before the changeover. A few hours of sleet/ZR and now plain rain.

And winds really picking up over the last 20mins. Can hear the roaring in the treetops from inside the house. Unusual direction as well (E/NE).

[weatherfan2012]

 Pattern looks really good coming up real legament threat next weekend.

 

[Phil]

Incredible low temp of -31°F occurred in Canaan Valley, WV on Saturday. Only 6° shy of the WV state record of -37°F.

Also the coldest temperature ever recorded in Canaan Valley. Previous record was -27°F on Jan 21, 1985.

 

[Phil]

Euro/EPS still bullish on the potential Saturday storm. Not uncommon to get big storms on the tail end of cold/+PNA patterns, so could happen.

I really want this one. Bring it home, Euro. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

The snow is coming. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

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[Mr Marine Layer]

Washington DC missed the brunt of it.

[Mr Marine Layer]

I can see that this topic compares to a cemetery.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I can see that this topic compares to a cemetery.

Yep it’s a sad state of affairs.

Will take a 950mb bomb cyclone to re-animate this zombie.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Miltown Mel is dead.

[Phil]

Went from 62 degrees at 4AM to 38 degrees at 5pm (now).

All liquid precip here, though. Wintry stuff staying in/west of the mountains.

[Phil]

Getting a snow/IP mix now with light accumulations beginning.

Impressive considering how warm it was in the preceding days. Actually was 55 degrees just a few hours before the precip started.

[weatherfan2012]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Getting a snow/IP mix now with light accumulations beginning.

Impressive considering how warm it was in the preceding days. Actually was 55 degrees just a few hours before the precip started.

 Not uncommon for La nina winters we can go from spring to winter in a matter of hours and vice versa lots of swings in both drections with ninas 

[Andie]

The current front moving into North Texas has a decided spring like feel to it.  However the low tomorrow night will be 27*. 
We’ve had an oddball winter and most are ready to be rid of the temps below 40.  It’s been damp, cold and yet no rain.  
We’re ready for some spring rain before the drought hits us.  

[Phil]

Wind advisory issued for tonight. Winds coming from the direction we’re exposed to. Doubt I’ll be getting much sleep tonight.

[Phil]

Martinsburg just gusted to 60mph. Here she comes.

[Phil]

Came in like a brick wall. Pulsing gusts between 50-55mph with calm in between.

[Phil]

Sustained wind was 51mph at MRB with the pressure surge this morning.

[Phil]

BWI gusted to 64mph this morning. And 65mph in Shady Side

Nice blow job.

[Phil]

Another sharp cold front set to roar through today, with wind advisories issued. Legit snow squall(s) moving into the mountains this AM in association with the front.

But downsloping + some loss of upper level forcing will likely cannibalize the squalls before they make it here. For now most guidance suggests a burst of wind towards 18z and a plunge in dewpoints, but no snow squalls of consequence east of the high terrain (with the possible exception of northern MD).

Currently 37/21 degrees with bright sunshine and a S/SW wind.

[Mr Marine Layer]

I can see it's been an active 2022 so far.

[Phil]

13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I can see it's been an active 2022 so far.

Conditions are usually restless/swingy at this time of year. August and September are the boring months unless a tropical system wanders in.

Highs may reach the 70s this week. But models hint at another cold shot early next week.

[Phil]

A lot of wind lately. Roaring again most of last night out of the S/SW. Temps held in the low/mid 60s.

Could reach 70+ degrees today before the cold front blows through.

And by tomorrow it could be snowing/sleeting, though degree of CAD is questionable.

[Phil]

It’s 75°F outside. Lol.

[Mr Marine Layer]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

It’s 75°F outside. Lol.

Record high?

[weatherfan2012]

Interesting that Larry Cosgrove is hinting at a humid but not hot summer with a active thunderstorm season base on the idea La nina weakens to neutral to a weak Nino by August.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Haven't yet made it to Page 2.

[Phil]

23 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Haven't yet made it to Page 2.

Might hit 80 degrees Sunday and/or Monday.  

[Phil]

79 degrees today with mostly cloudy skies and a steady SW breeze.

Tomorrow should hit 80 unless cloud cover overperforms. Also looks like a decent frontal passage as well towards sunset. Should at least see some gusty showers.

[Phil]

Slight risk issued for today. Looks like a forced, low-topped squall line may move in around sunset and mix down some strong winds from aloft.

Currently 76 and breezy as of 12 noon. Several reports of 50+mph gusts already, with some damage noted.

Clarksburg, in northern part of the county:

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks dangerous 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Hmm. Forums merged. 

[Phil]

Finally.  

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Welcome to the club Phil!

[Andie]

8 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Hmm. Forums merged. 

Yeah.
Not crazy about it but it is what it is.  

[Phil]

7 hours ago, MSP_Weather said:

Welcome to the club Phil!

Thanks for having me.

Maybe we should merge threads since there’s nobody to talk to in my thread. Lol

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Andie said:

Yeah.
Not crazy about it but it is what it is.  

I think it’s a great idea. The forum was over-balkanized and this should increase cross-regional conversation.